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Free Soccer Picks and Predictions – English Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga, Serie A Bets
The best free soccer handicapper in the game is back for another week, with the great Prospector Sam providing free picks for all the action across Europe.
As my father taught me from a young age, close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades (and we had some very hands-on lessons). In fact, I’d say close is even worse for gamblers because it gives you a false sense of belief that you were almost right, when the reality is that this game is binary. You win money or you lose money. But…. DAMN we got close to a massive weekend (I don’t listen to my own advice sometimes). Were it not for second half blown leads by Inter and Basel, we would have been staring at a massive 10 unit profit, which is about as good as you can hope for without parlays. Sadly, though, I can’t buy more hand grenades with “close losers.”
On the bright side, while I mourn the massive slate that could have been, the Gold Diggers continue to march forward with another winning article. Up 3.72 units on the week, and 8.17 units through 5 weeks, which is the type of profit you aspire to as a consistent gambler. With that, back to the gold mines for another shot at some dabloons.
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Without further ado, picks ⤵️
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Free Premier League Picks For Week 5, 2021
Newcastle vs. Leeds, Fri Sept 17, 3:00pm (EST)
This game sets up to be an absolute blast, primarily because neither team seems to have a clue how to defend. Newcastle lead the league in goals conceded at 12 through 4 games, and Leeds are just 1 behind at 11. As you might imagine, the value on the over is drier than the sahara, but I think there’s some money to be made here on Leeds to win. The season has started pretty terribly for the away side, but Leeds have had two tough losses to United and Liverpool and drew Everton. Their standing is more a reflection of a bad fixture list than anything else, which can’t be said for a Newcastle team who’ve lost by multiple goals to Villa and West Ham. While Leeds’ offense haven’t looked as good as they did last year, a trip to St James seems like just the medicine they need to remedy their woes, and I think they handle this one against a strong relegation candidate.
⛏️ PICK: Leeds moneyline (+120, 1 unit)
MORE: Newcastle vs. Leeds simulator
Man City vs. Southampton, Sat Sept 18, 10:00am (EST)
As I mentioned last week, I’ve put a lot of stock in my belief that City are just too fucking good for most teams to compete with. While they may have looked pretty shaky against Leicester and barely pulled out a win, the fact that they still handled their business in a game where they were way below their best says a lot. And, lucky for them, Southampton at the Etihad will be a much easier test. While the Foxes managed to stifle City’s offense last time out, I just don’t see it happening here. Southampton haven’t been all that bad defensively, and held West Ham to 0 goals over the weekend, but this team also gave up 2 to Newcastle and 3 to Everton earlier this year. Once the wheels start to come off, the whole car basically bursts into flames and I have a very hard time believing they’ll be able to limit City to a small number. So, much like our lucrative trip to Paris last week, I’m going to ride the team total here and take City to eclipse the 2.5 number in a game where they could very easily put in 4 or 5. At -150 the payout isn’t massive, but it’s the kind of bankroll builder you need to keep things moving in the right direction. Look for City to score 3+ here.
⛏️ PICK: Man City team total OVER 2.5 goals (-150, 2 units)
MORE: Man City vs. Southampton simulator
Aston Villa vs. Everton, Sat Sept 18, 12:30pm (EST)
I’ll be honest with all of you right off the bat and admit this is a “gut” pick. If an unscientific approach isn’t for you then that’s totally fine, but my experience and intuition tell me this game is going to be low scoring. Why bother qualifying it? Well, the numbers don’t exactly back that up, considering Everton have scored 10 goals through 4 games and Villa’s matches average 3 per. But, despite that, we’re moving into the part of the season where teams adjust to the flow of play and you see lower sides try to bunker down and stifle matchups. At home, Villa will likely try to hold Everton off the score sheet and look to win this in the 1-0 range if possible, and I don’t see them taking a ton of risks. On the road, Everton also aren’t going to get overly aggressive and expose themselves, and will play a bit more conservative than they would at Goodison. This pick can mostly be chalked up to a decade plus of watching the Prem and understanding how the season progresses, rather than specifics from this season, but my brain tells me this is the way to go here. The payout is close to even money, and I’ll be riding the under in this match. (even though betting unders in soccer is awful and makes me sad).
⛏️ PICK: Total goals UNDER 2.5 (-112, 1 unit)
MORE: Aston Villa vs. Everton simulator
Free La Liga Picks For Week 5, 2021
Sociedad vs. Sevilla, Sun Sept 19, 10:15am (EST)
God, I hate to do this, but let’s run it back. Spanish soccer, aside from a couple of outlier clubs, has turned into a pretty boring affair. Unfortunately, these teams are the rule rather than the exception, and only 2 of their 7 games to start the year have gone over the 2 goal mark. I don’t like doing it, but this tie really doesn’t seem likely to buck that trend. These squads are fairly evenly matched (that tends to lead to lower goal numbers) and neither plays a particularly aggressive style of soccer, which will lead to a low scoring game. I wouldn’t recommend taking two hours out of your Sunday to watch this (unless you’re a degenerate like me), but the right bet is the under on this one.
⛏️ PICK: Total goals UNDER 2.5 (-138, 1.5 units)
MORE: Sociedad vs. Sevilla simulator
Free Bundesliga Picks For Week 5, 2021
Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hoffenheim, Sat Sept 18, 9:30am (EST)
If you’re confused as to why we’re betting on this game with the plethora of exciting options in Germany, I completely understand. But I go where the board (and my mystery box of a brain) takes me and this is the line I feel best about. AB (I refuse to type out that name every time) are a newly promoted side who haven’t been able to get much of anything going this year. 3 points from 3 draws may not seem all that bad through 4 games, but those we’re all against bottom half teams and their loss was a pretty solid 3-1 thumping to Monchengladbach (god I fucking hate Germany right now) last time out. Hoffenheim may not be fighting for the top of the table, but they’ve had a fairly successful start to the campaign and are averaging two goals a game despite a difficult fixture list. Coming off a rough 2-0 loss to Mainz, I expect Hoffenheim get themselves back on track and beat up on a fairly outclassed AB side. At 1:1 payout for the bet, the price feels right for the risk as well.
⛏️ PICK: Hoffenheim moneyline (+100, 1.5 units)
Free Ligue One Picks For Week 5, 2021
Lens vs. Lille, Sat Sept 18, 11:00am (EST)
Anyone who follows me regularly knows that I prefer, when possible, to bet overs (see: my sadness above). At the end of the day they’re more fun to root for and, in my opinion, have great value in soccer where a bad mistake or bounce can flip an under on its head. It may be a bit limiting, but every slate has hundreds of options to bet so I have no problem choosing the high value over instead of the high value under when possible. I am what I am. Clearly I’m betting the over in this game after that intro, but here’s a little extra color. Each of these teams averages over 3 goals (scored and conceded) per game in Ligue 1 and have had the over hit in each of their last two. There shouldn’t be a lot of value on over 2.5 because of those stats but, somehow, it’s in positive numbers, which makes about as much sense as hiring a porcupine to work in a balloon factory. Both of these clubs have shown they prefer to play higher scoring games, and have enough quality to put multiple goals in the net on any given night. Getting plus odds feels like a steal, and I’ll gladly take it.
⛏️ PICK: Total goals OVER 2.5 (+120, 1.5 units)
Nice vs. Monaco, Sun Sept 19, 7:00am (EST)
Can anyone score a goal on Nice? It’s now becoming a serious question, since they’ve managed four straight shutouts to start the season which is pretty damn near impossible to do. They’re +10 GD with 3 wins and a draw, and sit in fourth place which is a huge overachievement for a side that usually don’t do much of anything that would be considered “impressive.” Conversely, Monaco have been a mess this year. On top of getting knocked out of the UCL they’ve lost 3 of their first 5 league games and sit 16th. Basically, not a lot is going right for this squad, which is why we’re going to fade them. In a normal year you’d expect Monaco to handle this tie, even on the road, fairly comfortably, but form matters and we can’t ignore how much better Nice have been. While Monaco may have more talent, there’s more to soccer than that and Nice are playing much better as a team. To get them +170 at home is solid value at the moment, and it’s worth throwing a unit at the home side for a shot at some solid money.
⛏️ PICK: Nice ML (+170, 1 unit)
Free Serie A Picks For Week 4, 2021
Juventus vs. AC Milan, Sun Sept 19, 2:45pm (EST)
Pretty soon, people are going to start putting out missing persons reports for Juventus. To say that the season has started poorly would be a dramatic understatement, and it’s hard to see things getting better any time soon (unless they get to play Malmo every match). Juventus have just one point through 3 games with blown multiple leads already, and Allegri seems completely helpless to do anything to change it. And, unfortunately, a visit from league-leading AC Milan probably isn’t well timed for them to right the ship. Milan have given up just one goal in 3 games, and manhandled a strong Lazio side last weekend in a match that many thought would be a lot tighter. Simply stated, the visitors are clearly the better side right now (especially with the departure of Christiano Ronaldo) and I think they have a good shot at winning. Yet, somehow, they’re still pretty large underdogs on the money line which feels like an absolute gift. Milan are sitting at +230 which doesnt reflect the form of these two sides at all, and I would have taken Milan here on anything close to even money. That number this feels like a criminal mistake by the books and I’m happy to take advantage of some massive value in this one.
⛏️ PICK: AC Milan moneyline (+230, 1.5 units)
Free Belgian Pro League Picks For Week 8, 2021
Charleroi vs. Club Brugge, Sat Sept 18, 2:45pm (EST)
I just can’t quit the Jupiler League. Every time I poke through the slate I find a new gem that makes us some easy money, and it’s hard to stay away now. This week I’m changing things up a bit, but (hopefully) it will be no less lucrative. As a rule, the Belgian League tends to skew on the higher range for goals, and Brugge is the poster boy for that concept. Brugge have scored 15 and given up 11 through 7 games, which rounds up to an absurd 4 goals per game. Charleroi aren’t having quite the same defensive issues, but they’re tied with the visitors at 15 for most goals scored in the league, all of which leads me to the very obvious and uncreative pick of over 2.5. How is this a valuable choice, considering those numbers? Well, to my disbelief, the Over is just -138 on this match, which even my messed up brain can’t seem to rationalize. This game either ends 0-0 (similar to how we got fucked last week on West Ham’s over) or it turns into a slugfest. Based on the data, I have no choice but to ride with the latter. Hopefully my Belgian expertise keeps rolling.
⛏️ PICK: Total goals OVER 2.5 (-138, 2 units)
Free Turkisk Super Lig Picks For Week 5, 2021
Basaksehir vs. Fenerbache, Sun Sept 19, 12:00pm (EST)
Turkish soccer??? Yeah, I’ve got range like Derek Jeter (but without the herpes). In all honesty, I follow the Super Lig but don’t spend much time gambling on it because I have more than enough options that I can easily watch. But, if I see a line I really like, I’m not going to hesitate to pull the trigger and that’s exactly what we have here. For those of you with little knowledge of the league and teams, I’ll keep things simple and say that Fenerbahce are one of the top teams every year while Basaksehir have fallen on tough times despite winning the league just two seasons ago. The home side finished 12th last season and have 0 points through 4 games this campaign, which pretty clearly shows that downslide. Basically, they suck but their odds are still propped up by their past success (think Arsenal, if that helps). So to get Fenerbahce, who are tied on points for first place in the league, at close to standard odds on the ML is a pretty generous number. Maybe Basaksehir can conjure up some of their old form and screw us, but nothing about how they’re playing at the moment suggests that they will. Take a hard swing at this one.
⛏️ PICK: Fenerbahce moneyline (+100, 2 units)
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Prospector Sam is a cartoon man that handicaps as well as anyone on the planet. No one knows exactly who The Prospector is, but what is known is how well he does from sports betting.
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