Free NFL 2021 Picks and Predictions – Prospector Sam Week 3 Best Bets

Prospector Sam is back with a full slate of football picks for Week 3 as he digs for more gold. 

And for a moment the earth stood still… at least that’s how I felt when, out of absolutely nowhere, my world was ripped out from under me like Scooby Doo trying to run on a rug. What was this terrible event, you ask? Did I lose a loved one, or fail in some important moment? Don’t be ridiculous, I never fail. No, this disaster was the 10 minutes on Sunday afternoon when Scott Hanson and the rest of RedZone froze, leaving every NFL fan gasping for air.

It was almost sobering to realize just how much that moment rattled me. I called friends who I hadn’t been on the phone with in ages, who I would text on birthdays or for important life events, just to figure out whether RedZone was down universally or if I needed to throw my TV out and buy a new one. Basically, the moment could be summed up with one very simple statement; my name is Sam, and I’m an addict.

But, just like sunshine after rain, football returned and all was right with the world. We’re two weeks into the season, and NFL football is as good as ever, which is a pleasant reminder to all the crazy people who enjoy baseball season (or any other regular season, for that matter) that they’re wrong and nothing compares to Fall NFL Sundays. Well, there is one thing better -  winning money while watching NFL Sundays - so let’s go ahead and do that.

MORE: DimersBOT's most likely Touchdown scorers for Week 3 NFL

Without further ado, picks ⤵️

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Free NFL Picks For Week 3, 2021

Washington vs. Bills, Sun Sept 26, 1:00pm (EST)

So far this season, we’ve seen two completely different Bills teams. The challenge for week 3 is deciding which is the real one, and I’m putting my eggs in the “this Bills team has issues” basket. Sure, beating up on a helpless Dolphins team looked nice and soothed the pain of Week 1, but the reality is that this offense struggled against the Steelers and they’re facing another decent defensive unit this week in WFT. Does that mean the Bills are going to lose? No, probably not. I think they showed us last week that they’re capable of producing more on both sides of the field than they were able to in Week 1, but I still don’t believe they’re a Top 5 team. As for Washington, it’s hard to have an idea. Heinicke is still an unknown commodity and their secondary has had some serious issues to start the season, but they’re 1-1 and held up against a Chargers team most expect to be fairly competitive, which tells me they don’t get blown out of the water in this one. Expecting the Bills to win this by 9+ points feels too risky, especially as we watch underdog after underdog cover spreads to start the season, so I’ll take the 8.5.

⛏️ PICK: Washington +8.5 (1.5 units)

MORE: Washington vs. Bills simulator

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Ravens vs. Lions, Sun Sept 26, 1:00pm (EST)

Everything was going fairly well for the Lions on MNF, until they remembered they were the Lions and imploded. It was sad to watch, but this team is still a mess and Goff isn’t going to be the guy to lead them to anything except for more losing seasons. The Ravens, meanwhile, pulled out an exciting SNF win over the Chiefs and Lamar exorcized some demons, but Baltimore isn’t built to play shootouts like that and won’t unless they face teams who air it out and force them to go blow for blow. In fact, I think both these teams will probably prefer to play a bit of a slower style in this game, and the total feel skewed a bit too heavily by each team’s last outing. 49.5 is a pretty large number for the NFL, and neither of these receiving corps are going to blow the top off a defense unless the Lions pull a KC and let Marquise Brown walk right by them. I expect both to rely fairly heavily on the running game, and I see this one ending closer to the low 40s rather than the 50s.

⛏️ PICK: Total points UNDER 49.5 (2 units)

MORE: Ravens vs. Lions simulator

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Bears vs. Browns, Sun Sept 26, 1:00pm (EST)

I referenced that there are, in fact, teams who are willing to play college-style football in the last write up (i.e. all gas no breaks), and no team embodies that concept better than the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland’s first two games AVERAGE 57 points, and they’re more than capable of both scoring and giving up points in bunches. With Justin Fields starting his first game there’s a potential risk of some nerves and growing pains, but he’s surely not any worse than Tyrod Taylor and David Mills who put up 21 points on the Browns last weekend. The one constant we’ve seen in Cleveland’s first 2 weeks is fast paced football and tons of scoring, and I think we get that again here, especially since this Bears defense gave up 34 points to the Rams in week 1. 45.5 feels way too low for any Browns game, and I’m willing to take on the risk of a rookie QB to bet on points.

⛏️ PICK: Total points OVER 45.5 (2 units)

MORE: Bears vs. Browns simulator

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Bengals vs. Steelers, Sun Sept 26, 1:00pm (EST)

Some might say betting this game is a mystery bag without knowing Big Ben’s status. I disagree. The Steelers aren’t trying to win with Ben’s arm any more, and their week 1 victory over the Bills showed just that. They’re going to beat you with defense and quick passing/gadget plays, meaning Roethlisberger really isn’t as important as he used to be to this team. If Ben is there, then great, the offense probably runs a little smoother, but I don’t think they hurt all that bad without him. As for the Bengals, they just aren’t very good. A couple of late mistakes by the Bears papered over what should have been a much worse loss in week 2, and I still have no idea how this team managed to beat the Vikings (other than the fact that Minnesota is destined to crush the souls of every person dumb enough to root for them). Cincinnati is still a long way off from being a competitive team in the NFL, particularly with their offensive line being an absolute mess, and I don’t think they have the talent right now to keep up with the Steelers. As Najee Harris gets more comfortable and involved in Pittsburgh’s offense this team will improve and become a more balanced attack, and I like them to win this game at home. With the safety of the 3 point push and the chance of a big steeler win, I think this bet has a ton of upside and some good value (especially if Ben can go).

⛏️ PICK: Steelers -3 (3 units)

MORE: Bengals vs. Steelers simulator

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Dolphins vs. Raiders, Sun Sept 26, 4:05pm (EST)

I, like almost everyone else in the country, have a very hard time believing that this Raiders team is actually good. It just doesn’t make sense, both from a roster standpoint and from the standpoint of “John Gruden is a brilliant moron destined to fuck things up.” But results are what count in this league, and the Raiders have beaten two playoff teams and now face a Jacoby Brissett-led Dolphins who got their doors blown off by the Bills (and didn’t deserve to win their week 1 game, not that I’m bitter or anything). I just don’t see how you can do anything here but take the Raiders with a 4 point line. As gamblers, we’re biased towards certain teams and against others based on past performances, but we have to put those biases behind us and bet on the product we’re seeing on the field right now. The same way people are getting burned by the Chiefs, who can’t seem to cover a spread to save their lives, the Raiders are a better team than we expected, and everything about their performances this year says they’re a much better team than Miami. Take Vegas at home to win by around a TD.

⛏️ PICK: Raiders -4 (2 units)

MORE: Dolphins vs. Raiders simulator

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Eagles vs. Cowboys, Mon Sept 26, 8:20pm (EST)

This total is so easy for my brain, it almost feels like a trap. I honestly can’t figure out how this game covers 51.5 unless you get a couple of defensive touchdowns or short yardage drives, because both of these teams are going to have issues on offense. The Eagles still have a Jalen Hurts problem, and he showed last week that any defense better than the Falcons defense (so, basically, the other 31 and maybe a couple of college teams) is going to make it hard for him to throw effectively. While Dallas isn’t the Steel Curtain, they’ve been more successful this year and effectively limited Justin Herbert who is undoubtedly better throwing the ball than Hurts. The Eagles may score more than the 11 they put up against SF, but likely not that much more. On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys are going to have to deal with the Eagles one strength, their secondary. Philly is conceding less than 200 YPG through the air and they’re giving teams no choice but to beat them by running the ball, which will wind clock and lead to less big plays. Opposing teams have scored just 23 points on the year against the Eagles, and if they’re able to foree Dallas to feed Zeke and Pollard rather than CeeDee Lamb (which I think they can) it will be a tactical win. Overall, this just sets up to be more of a hard nose, grind-it-out battle than a punch for punch shootout, and I’ll take the under at a fairly high 51.5.

⛏️ PICK: Total points UNDER 51.5 (2 units)

MORE: Eagles vs. Cowboys simulator

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SUNDAY BETTING HUB:

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