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Free College Football Picks and Predictions – Week 9 Best Bets, Saturday October 30, 2021
Prospector Sam has arrived with your free NCAAF betting picks for the Week 9 action!
Well, I warned you it was going to be a boring week of college football. And, just as the Oracle of Prospector Sam predicted, there was hardly a moment of importance unless you count Oklahoma and Cincinnati trying their drandest to get the CFB Playoff Committee to knock them off the short list. But, despite that range of uselessness we saw on Saturday, absolutely NOTHING compared to what we saw at Penn State.
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When the NCAA came out with the new overtime rule, it was a pretty big disappointment for everyone because the potential for a 4 or 5 OT battle between teams going punch for punch was pretty awesome. But, despite that loss, I understood the decision because forcing college students to spend an extra two hours smashing their brains probably wasn’t the best idea. Unfortunately, like pretty much everything the NCAA does, it went horribly wrong. We saw the first major moment between teams competing to score 2 pointers, and it took 11 FUCKING TRIES for one of them to even convert. Now, I’m not sure that having them continue to play “regular football” would have ended much better, but all I could think as I watched that trainwreck was that God should have mercy and end it. The lesson here? Don’t try to be too clever (probably advice I should follow, but I won’t). The NCAA OT rule was already working, and trying to “fix it” was destined for failure, even if well intentioned. Next time, just do less.
With that, greener pastures this week in the form of some exciting matchups. Time for picks! ⤵️
This week's CFB picks are proudly brought to you by BetMGM.
Free NCAAF Picks For Week 9, 2021
Michigan vs. Michigan State, Sat Oct 30, 12:00pm (ET)
If you feel like you have either of these teams figured out, give yourself a big old pat on the back. Quite frankly, I haven’t got a clue, mostly because neither of them has beaten a team worth a damn. In line with that lack of information, my first thought was to go towards the spread and take the points, but I don’t feel all that comfortable with this line either. Michigan is certainly the more talented team and their defense and run game will “travel well,” meaning there are some reasons to believe they cover the 4.5. I lean towards taking the points, but I don’t love it enough to put it in the article. I do, however, like the under a lot. Both of these teams, Michigan and Michigan State, are fantastic on defense (averaging less than 20 PPG) and can slow down opponents on the ground effectively. While Michigan State is a bit weaker against the passing game, Michigan really doesnt throw the ball that much so it’s hard to see that being a huge issue. Basically, this sets up to be a hard nosed game where both sides run the ball a lot and play for field position. Add in the colder weather up North (which will begin to be more of a factor moving forward) and the fact that this is a big rivalry game that will decide the fate of these two programs for the season, and I expect points to be at a premium. 50 may not seem like a ton for college football these days, but it is for an old school Big 10 matchup and that’s exactly what we have here. Take the under.
⛏️ PICK: Total points UNDER 50
MORE: Michigan vs. Michigan State simulator
Texas vs. Baylor, Sat Oct 30, 12:00pm (ET)
As much as it pains me to say, I LOVE Texas in this game. Baylor has overperformed this year and look stronger than just about anyone expected, but their two “big” wins have been over two of the most overrated teams in the country (Iowa State, BYU). At 6-1 the Bears look like a solid unit with an outside chance at the Big 12, but they have yet to face a team whose talent outclasses their own. Enter: Texas, a team loaded with talent that can compete with almost anyone in the country so long as they don’t beat themselves (which, admittedly, is a big issue). Texas is coming off two losses where they blew leads and being optimistic about them is a dangerous game to play, but Bijan is an absolute stud and the bye week will help them a lot in sorting out their defensive issues. Baylor isn’t going to get blown out by any means, but I think Texas’s offense will be too much for them to handle and the Bears will have a harder time competing on the lines than they have all year. Look for Texas to continue their roller coaster year and beat Baylor.
⛏️ PICK: Texas at the moneyline (+130)
MORE: Texas vs. Baylor simulator
Georgia vs. Florida, Sat Oct 30, 3:30pm (ET)
Well, Georgia, time to put up or shut up against Florida. While Florida hasn’t had a great year, this is undoubtedly the biggest game of the season for these programs and Florida isn’t going to cave simply because their season has gone off the rails. Each of these teams is coming in rested off a bye and will have done nothing but gameplan for how to beat each other for 13 straight days, which makes for an interesting chess match as well. Buttttt I don’t think that matters at all. To sum up this game in one sentence, Florida is not built to be the team to challenge Georgia. As shocking as it is to say, the only team to scare the Dawgs this year has been Clemson, and the Tigers succeeded in that opening game because they executed defensively. You don’t beat this Georgia team by gunning it around the field, you beat them by slowing the game down and keeping them off the board. Unfortunately (if you’re a Gators fan, I guess, which is another issue entirely), that just isn’t Florida’s brand. UF wants to beat teams by scoring, and solid defenses cause huge issues for mistake-prone Emory Jones. Since “solid” would be an insult to this Georgia Defense, I just don’t have a lot of hope for the Gators to be effective offensively, and the Dawgs will eat them alive on offense with their endless stable of top running backs and a solid passing game built off of play action. 14 is a huge number to give up for a game like this, but Georgia has proven all year that they can cover it easily if you play into their hands. Florida likely will, and I think Georgia wins big based on that.
⛏️ PICK: Georgia -14
MORE: Georgia vs. Florida simulator
Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma, Sat Oct 30, 3:30pm (ET)
There’s a lot of uncertainty around this Texas Tech team and it’s hard to say how that will affect them against Oklahoma. You could argue it will hurt for obvious reasons, or you could say that the change of leadership will provide a boost by shaking things up (see: the Raiders post Gruden). While I’m not ready to commit to either of those theories, I am ready to commit to something else; the idea that Oklahoma is not worth trusting. The Sooners are essentially the Chiefs of College Football, struggling to live up to lofty expectations and winning despite making things way harder on themselves than they should. The Sooners, while sitting on an undefeated record, haven’t managed to blow a single team out all season aside from Western Carolina (speaking of, beating a team 76-0 feels kind of mean. Have a damn heart). The line in this game is 19.5, which is doable if the Sooners play up to their talent, but everything they’ve shown us this year says they won’t (just ask Kansas). This number is too high even against an abysmal TTU defense that gives up over 30 PPG, and I think Oklahoma wins by closer to 14 (i.e. enough to look good for the playoffs but worse than they should be). Take the points.
⛏️ PICK: Texas Tech +19.5
MORE: Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma simulator
Duke vs. Wake Forest, Sat Oct 30, 4:00pm (ET)
I can’t believe I’m about to give up 16.5 points on Wake Forest football, but I’m absolutely going to do it. Let’s clear up a few things about this team real quick; they have a great offense, their defense is below average to bad, and they are 100% not the 13th best team in the country (they might not be the 13th best team in the SEC if they played there). But they are built to win games against weaker opposition, and Duke certainly qualifies. The Deacs score at an outrageous clip, and the way to beat them is slowing down the game and playing some defense. Duke, meanwhile, plays high tempo football and gives up over 30 points a game. The Blue Devils have managed to win games over two of the worst teams in the FBS and one in the FCS, but they lost to Charlotte earlier in the year and are coming off a 48-0 loss to UVA, which tells you this team is in for a tough day against Wake. It’s still hard to comprehend that Wake Forest, a team known for being consistently awful, is putting up a decent year so far, but they win by playing to their strengths and know how to put points on the board. They should be able to throw up an ugly number against Duke, and, despite how soft this Wake defense is, I just don’t think that the Blue Devils can execute well enough to keep up (you could put 11 traffic cones out and they might not manage it). Swallow your pride and lay down the 16.5 on Wake Forest against Duke.
⛏️ PICK: Wake Forest -16.5
MORE: Duke vs. Wake Forest simulator
Kansas vs. Oklahoma State, Sat Oct 30, 7:00pm (ET)
Where do you find 54.5 points in this game? Seriously, where? Because nothing about these teams tells you that points are coming, and I’m absolutely in love with under at that number. Let’s start with Kansas, whose offense is an absolute nightmare and could legitimately get shoutout against a Cowboy’s unit that has yet to give up more than 24 in a game. Kansas’ offense is pretty one dimensional towards the run, and Oklahoma State should have no problem causing the Jayhawks all sorts of issues by forcing them to throw the ball. On the other side of the field things will obviously go better for the Cowboys offense since Kansas’ defense is a walking disaster that gives up 42 PPG, but Oklahoma State doesn’t play a high tempo and runs the ball on a heavy percentage of downs, which isn’t conducive to running up scores. The Cowboys have yet to tally more than 32 in a game all year, even with opponents like Tulsa and Missouri State, so I don’t see them going for 40+ themselves. This game feels very clear to me; Kansas will struggle to do anything, Oklahoma State will build a comfortable lead over 2+ quarters, then the game will fizzle out towards the end once neither has much to play for. Based on that, the under feels great (which is something I rarely say about and under) and I’ll be hammering it.
⛏️ PICK: Total points UNDER 54.5
MORE: Kansas vs. Oklahoma State simulator
Ole Miss vs. Auburn, Sat Oct 30, 7:00pm (ET)
In Bo Nix we trust. Well, more specifically, in Bo Nix we trust to let down the Auburn fanbase and lose important games. If there’s one thing Auburn’s golden boy has done consistently in his 3 years as the starting QB, it’s underperform in important games, and this fits the category perfectly. Ole Miss are still holding on for dear life in the College Football Playoff race (hint: they won’t make it) and have won a couple of important games in the last couple weeks, including a pretty impressive win over LSU. There’s no such thing as an easy win in the SEC (I just pretend Vanderbilt is an independent school they all happen to play consistently), so I don’t expect the Rebels to come out and trample Auburn, but I like them more at the moment for a number of reasons. Matt Corral is the better QB which is a huge advantage in important games, and I trust him more coming down the back end of a tight game (which this projects to be). Auburn has also struggled with drops and a weak receiving corps all year and, since passing effectively is the key to beating this Mississippi defense, they could have trouble keeping up offensively. Most importantly, to finish off the point, Ole Miss has just looked like a strong team all season aside from the game against Alabama (the Tide tend to have that effect) while Auburn has struggled to impress even in easier games (see: Georgia State). I’m tempted to skip straight to money line on Ole Miss, but I’ll take the 2.5 points out of an abundance of caution and maybe sprinkle the money line in somewhere else. The Rebels should handle their business here.
⛏️ PICK: Ole Miss +2.5
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