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Free College Football Picks and Predictions – Week 8 Best Bets, Saturday October 23, 2021
Prospector Sam has arrived with your free NCAAF betting picks for the Week 8 action!
Another article, another profit. It wasn’t quite as spectacular as the week before, and we didn’t hit the people’s parlay (which broke my damn heart), but it’s never a bad day gambling when you make money. And, as an adoptive Georgia fan (marrying has its perks), it’s a hell of a lot of fun watching the Dawgs beat the life out of every team that crosses their path. Add in that I drank enough on Saturday to kill a small horse, and it was a good day all around (aside from the hangover, which was less fun).
MORE: Best Sportsbook Football Promos
Unfortunately, this week’s slate is a bit sad. And by “a bit sad” I mean absolutely atrocious. There isn’t a SINGLE game between ranked teams, and there’s a whole lot of spreads with ugly numbers to maneuver. Buy hey, that’s kind of the beauty of gambling. While most of these games won’t be very interesting and we probably won’t learn a hell of a lot as far as the playoffs are concerned, we still have a reason to care and an opportunity to make some sweet, sweet cash if we play our cards right. So why don’t we go make us some oil barron money and buy houses in the Hamptons together with all of our winnings.
Let’s get back to it! ⤵️
This week's CFB picks are proudly brought to you by BetMGM.
Free NCAAF Picks For Week 8, 2021
Cincinnati vs. Navy, Sat Oct 23, 12:00pm (ET)
Let’s start things off by welcoming in our first military academy pick of the year! Why is that relevant? It isn’t at all. But I want to take a second to recognize them for their future service before describing why this game is going to go horribly for them. Simply, Cincinnati is beating the crap out of every mediocre team they face, and they average 45 PPG. Aside from a low scoring dogfight with ND where they tallied 24, the Bearcats’ lowest scoring performance this season is 38, and that trend projects to hold against a 1-5 Navy team giving up over 30 per. In fact, the Bearcats project to score enough here that I’m walking away from the line (which is fairly big at 27.5) and going with the over. 49 points is absurdly low for this matchup, and, so long as Navy can do a little bit of damage offensively, we should make it over the mark. Their insistence on running the ball almost every play will slow the game down a bit and limit huge gains offensively, but the Midshipmen can still put up points and they have no hope of stopping Ridder. By taking the over, we protect against a back door cover or a couple of breaks bouncing for Navy, but still get the benefit of all the points Cincy should score. Look for this one to hit around 55.
⛏️ PICK: Total points OVER 49
MORE: Cincinnati vs. Navy simulator
Wake Forest vs. Army, Sat Oct 23, 12:00pm (ET)
Well, if we’re going to talk about Navy it would be rude not to talk about Army. I’m nothing if not a fair and benevolent god. And, funny enough, I actually like the same bet here. Quite frankly, whoever set this total is on drugs. Both of these teams average over 30 PPG and Wake is almost at 40, which tees us up for a high scoring game. While their defenses are a bit better, neither is particularly impressive and the matchup is good for both offenses. Army still runs the triple option which doesn’t normally produce huge scoring numbers, but they’ve been extremely effective this year and Wake just doesn’t give a damn about playing defense (conceding over 400 YPG). While Army have performed better on that end of the field this year, they haven’t faced an offense nearly as explosive as Wake’s and I think they could be in for a rough time trying to hold up. 52 points just isn’t nearly enough for the product these two teams have put out on the field in 2021, and I’ll gladly take a big swing at this over.
⛏️ PICK: Total points OVER 52
MORE: Wake Forest vs. Army simulator
Wisconsin vs. Purdue, Sat Oct 23, 3:00pm (ET)
If you ever wanted proof that history and brand hold weight, look no further than this line. Wisconsin has been a train wreck this season, and it has a lot to do with Graham Mertz giving his best impression of Zack Wilson on the Jets. Mertz has 2 passing TDs and 7 INTs on the season, and they’re going to have some serious issues scoring on a Purdue defensive unit that just held Iowa to 7 points. While the Badgers do have a solid defense, they match up terribly here because their strength is primarily in stopping the run game, and the Boilermakers don’t give a damn about running the ball. 334 Of Purdue’s 423 YPG average on the year come through the air, and they’ll gladly eat Wisconsin piece by piece with 5-10 yard passes (even with the injuries they’ve sustained at the WR position). Especially at home, I would have expected Purdue to be a slight favorite, but we’re actually getting 3 points on the Boilermakers. Especially with the FG hook, this is probably my favorite bet of the weekend.
⛏️ PICK: Purdue +3.5
MORE: Wisconsin vs. Purdue simulator
Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State, Sat Oct 23, 3:30pm (ET)
Excuse me? Iowa State is giving up how many fucking points here? Honestly, I don’t even know where to begin with this one. I’ve been saying since before the season even started that the Cyclones are overrated, and they’ve done pretty much everything to prove me right. A bad loss to Iowa at home and a loss at Baylor pretty much crushed their hopes of having a big year, and beating Kansas by 52 doesn’t really paper over that. While Oklahoma State is probably a bit over ranked at 8 in the country, they’ve won three big games in a row over teams in the top 25 (including one over the same Baylor team who beat Iowa State), and their defense is good enough to keep them in games that aren’t against Alabama or Georgia. So to get 7 extra points on the Cowboys here is absolutely astounding to me, and I almost feel like I’m stealing. Spencer Sanders isn’t exactly NFL level talent, and he needs to avoid big mistakes to make sure OSU stays in this game, but results are what matters in sports and Oklahoma State has stepped up and won every test they’ve had. I’ll take them to cover with 7 extra points, and I may even sprinkle in a bit of ML.
⛏️ PICK: Oklahoma +7
MORE: OK State vs. Iowa State simulator
LSU vs. Ole Miss, Sat Oct 23, 3:30pm (ET)
Poor Ed Orgeron. All the man did was go out with a transfer QB and win a National Championship in a time when absolutely nobody is beating Alabama, and two years later he’s already out of a job. Some lucky fan base is going to be happy to have him, even if he sounds like he just smoked 15 cigarettes at all times. And, while I’m mad at LSU for how they’ve treated this majestic unicorn, I think they have enough juice to handle this game. The Tigers have been consistently inconsistent this season, but their issues have primarily been when they have trouble getting their offense moving and absolutely nobody has trouble with that against Ole Miss. The Rebels set up well when their opponents are more comfortable with low scoring play, and when they face a potent offense things can sometimes go very haywire (see, Alabama). I think LSU is ready to get into a gunfight here, and I expect they can hang with Lane Kiffin’s psychotic offense that hasn’t been all that stellar as of late. At anything more than a Touchdown I like this bet a lot, especially with the value on the backdoor cover if the Tigers pull it close towards the end, and I’ll gladly take the 9 the books are giving me right now.
⛏️ PICK: LSU +9
MORE: LSU vs. Ole Miss simulator
USC vs. Notre Dame, Sat Oct 23, 7:30pm (ET)
Remember when this game used to mean something? Most of you probably do, but for any of the young Gold Diggers out there (where are your parents and why are they letting you read this filth) this game was once one of the biggest attractions of the season. Now? Barely even worth watching. As I see it, though, this bet is actually fairly simple. You can’t trust either of these teams to be any good, which means we want to take the points if they’re high enough, and the books delivered with +6.5 on the Trojans. Notre Dame is likely a bit better than USC, particularly at home, but the Trojans move the ball effectively through the air and should be able to gauge an Irish defense that’s had trouble stopping solid passers. With an extra week of rest for both, I expect this game to be a dogfight and I could see it going a field goal in either direction. With that outcome in mind, USC +6.5 is the right bet and that’s what I’m riding here.
⛏️ PICK: USC +6.5
MORE: USC vs. Notre Dame simulator
NC State vs. Miami, Sat Oct 23, 7:30pm (ET)
The Wolfpack broke my heart last week by beating my Eagles like a pinata until there was nothing but an empty string left hanging. It was an impressive performance to say the least, and they earned some credibility as a tough beat for any team not in the SEC (their only loss this year is to Miss. St.) And, unless you wind the clock back about 15 years, the Hurricanes aren’t SEC quality unless the “quality” you’re referring to is Vanderbilt. Miami is 2-4 on the year, and their only wins are against Appalachian State and Central Connecticut. Sure, losing to Michigan State or Alabama isn’t all that bad, but their last two losses were to football powerhouses Virginia and UNC (I’ll assume you can get the sarcasm even on paper). To make things simple, NC State is just playing a hell of a lot better right now and their defense is putting up an impressive 14.3 PPG, so I have no problem giving up the 3 points on the road. With the protection of a push if it comes down to a late FG I think this bet has some great value, and there’s a solid chance they blow the doors off a Miami team who’s ready for the year to end so they can start drinking Pina Coladas and eating cuban sandwiches (or whatever it is people do there, I’ve never actually been).
⛏️ PICK: NC State -3
MORE: NC State vs. BC simulator
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Prospector Sam is a cartoon man that handicaps as well as anyone on the planet. No one knows exactly who The Prospector is, but what is known is how well he does from sports betting.
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