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Free College Football Picks and Predictions – Week 7 Best Bets, Saturday October 16, 2021
Prospector Sam has arrived with your free NCAAF betting picks for the Week 7 action!
The anonymity of this character has its ups and downs, but I can firmly say that this week it’s a plus. I’m not a god fearing man (mostly because I know I’m fucked already if god is looking for morals and decency), but I do fear certain things that I’m SURE can and will kill me. Sharks, falling from high places, my mother in law after I make fun of her, and spiders (I will never trust those fuckers) all come to mind as things that keep me up at night. But, after last week’s college football slate I can add another item to that list that has some real life consequences - Alabama fans.
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You see, in the midst of an incredible week of picks where I could hardly miss a bet, I also slipped a couple sentences into my article about how the CFB landscape wasn’t as clear cut as people expected. And, just as predicted, things went off the rails. The problem? I did not expect it so soon, nor did I expect it to be Alabama (Georgia felt like a shoe in to fuck things up first). And now, after the impressively inept Tide loss against A&M, I’m slightly concerned that Alabama fans are going to track me down and sacrifice me because god knows this is about all they’ve got to be happy about. Thankfully though, as mentioned, they don’t know my name (nor can most of them read) which means I’m probably going to survive. But, just to be safe, I’ll stay away from any more dangerous general predictions and stick to what I know best; picks.
Let’s get back to it! ⤵️
This week's CFB picks are proudly brought to you by BetMGM.
Free NCAAF Picks For Week 7, 2021
California vs. Oregon, Fri Oct 16, 10:30pm (EST)
If you like overs, boy are you gonna have fun with this article. I won’t say it was intentional that I skewed towards that side of the total, because it genuinely wasn’t, but betting overs is objectively more fun so I’m not sad about it. The secret’s out on this pick, so I’ll just go ahead and say “let’s take over 54,” but I suppose you all deserve a bit more explanation. To start, Oregon could put up a pretty ugly number here. After their bad loss to Stanford that may or may not have screwed their CFB Playoff hopes, as well as a bye week, I expect they come out firing and probably rain hell on a Cal team conceding over 400 yards and 27 points per game. So why not go with the Oregon spread? Well, as you likely deduced, I don’t love Oregon’s defense all that much either, which makes sense for a team conceding over 400 YPG themselves and who hasn’t held a real team under 19 points all year (sorry, not sorry Stonybrook). While the Ducks spread has a bit of value, I think this game has a very good chance of getting to a big number, especially because there are no projected weather issues for Friday night, so I’ll just walk away from the line. I will likely be asleep before this one ends, but I expect to wake up like a kid on Christmas except instead of a new bike I have extra money in my gambling account (and who needs a bike anyway, its 2021 for fuck’s sake).
⛏️ PICK: Total points OVER 54
MORE: California vs. Oregon simulator
Michigan State vs. Indiana, Sat Oct 16, 12:00pm (EST)
When I first saw this line (MSU -4.5), I thought it was a steal, and I think that’s what most people will think seeing #10 MSU against a below .500 Indiana team. The more I look at it, though, the less of an easy bet I think it is, but I still can’t fault the logic in taking the Spartans here. MSU has had a solid season, with their only hitch being a close win over Nebraska who are proving to be a tough beat with each close loss (OU and Michigan now on that list). Indiana, meanwhile, have regressed back to doing what they do best (losing football games), and they’ve gotten smacked around a few times by superior competition. So why is this bet concerning? Well, the bye week will help out the Hoosiers a lot, and we really don’t know how good this team is. They do have 3 losses, but each is against a team currently in the Top 10 so it’s hard to fault them too much. But, while IU may fare better against opponents closer to their wheelhouse, Michigan State is playing too well right now to be in that range. Payton Thorne has impressed the hell out of me and this defense is holding opponents under 20 per game. Add in that Penix Jr. has 4TDs and 7 INTs on the season (if he even plays in this game), and it’s hard to see how Indiana stays close. Don’t be surprised if this number starts creeping up towards 6 or 7 as gameday gets closer, and be wary if the number gets too high.
⛏️ PICK: Michigan State -4.5
MORE: Michigan State vs. Indiana simulator
Florida vs. LSU, Sat Oct 16, 12:00pm (EST)
Alright folks, let’s get back on brand. Florida is, without a doubt, one of the most confusing teams in the country. They could come out and blow the doors off LSU, or they could shoot themselves in the foot again like they’ve done pretty much every game and lose. To put things in context for you, just look at their offensive statistics; the Gators average over 500 YPG but score 33, which is pretty damn hard to do. For comparison, Alabama averages less yards (472) but 11 more points a game. The problem? Simply put, it’s Emory Jones. One drive he looks like Tom Brady throwing the ball and the next he looks Cam Newton on the Pats (aka missing his target by 5 feet). But, while I have no confidence in the Gators to cover this spread, I love the over. Florida is going to tear apart an LSU defense who just gave up 42 to Kentucky, and I expect Florida gets somewhere close to that 40 point number themselves. As for LSU, they’re a one trick pony who will let Max Johnson air it out which will create opportunities to score and quick drives that fizzle out. Florida’s pass defense isn’t all that great, and I expect the Tigers to put up at least 20 themselves (if not more). So, at just 59 for the total, I think we’re getting a lot of value on this over in a game that sets up to be more of a punch for punch shootout than an old school SEC grinder.
⛏️ PICK: Total points OVER 59
MORE: Florida vs. LSU simulator
Kentucky vs. Georgia, Sat Oct 16, 3:30pm (EST)
This total is diabolical. 44.5 feels like a trap, especially when you consider how good this Georgia offense has been so far on the years (they AVERAGE 40 PPG), but then you see their 5.5 PPG conceded and all that confidence goes out the window. But hey, sometimes you have to trust your gut, and I will take the over at this number all day every day. Let’s start with Georgia’s offense, which is manhandling everyone at the line and has scored 34+ in each of their last 5 games (I think we can throw out the Clemson game as an anomaly at this point). Kentucky’s defense has been impressive this year, but they just aren’t going to be able to hold up against UGA based on the disparity in talent and recruiting, and the Dawgs probably hit them for around 35. That means we need to decide just how many points Kentucky is going to get, and 10+ for them is all it takes to make this number work. While it’s dangerous, the Wildcats have shown me enough over the last few weeks to buy in. The key to their offense is balance, and they’re creating points precisely because of how dangerous they are running and throwing the ball. While they won’t find nearly as much room against Georgia, that dual threat will create more chances than one dimensional teams like Arkansas and Auburn (well, Auburn may be 0 dimensional, but I digress) could. In my opinion the Cats are probably good for a couple of scoring drives, and as long as one of those is a TD we should be happy with the result here. And, who knows, Georgia is also destined for a down week like we saw out of Alabama eventually, and maybe the Wildcats score a bit more on Saturday with a good break or two going their way.
⛏️ PICK: Total points OVER 44.5
MORE: Kentucky vs. Georgia simulator
Purdue vs. Iowa, Sat Oct 16, 3:30pm (EST)
Despite some crazy wins last week that may or may not have been deserved (it’s gambling, never apologize for being lucky), the one that probably should have lost was Iowa. To be honest, they didn’t have a prayer of winning that game until Sean Clifford got knocked out, and this team is certainly not the 2nd best in the country. Lucky for them they don’t play a single decent team the rest of the way, so things may go smoothly until the Big 10 Championship, but that’s a different problem for a different day. And, in line with my concerns about Iowa, I’m taking Purdue with the points here (11.5). Neither team scores all that much, which you can see with a total of just 43, and that’s going to make it damn hard for Iowa to pull away/cover. The Hawkeye’s trick for getting leads this season has been turnovers (particularly interceptions), but Jack Plummer is the game manager of all game managers and has yet to throw an INT all year. While the Boilermakers may also have problems scoring, I don’t expect Iowa to win big against a team that’s a bad matchup for their style of play, and I think the Hakeyes likely win this one in the 7-10 point range. Take the points, and maybe one or two more if the public starts to bet this one up based on their ranking (which I expect may happen).
⛏️ PICK: Purdue +11.5
MORE: Purdue vs. Iowa simulator
Alabama vs. Mississippi, Sat Oct 16, 7:00pm (EST)
If it ain’t broke, dont fix it. And I have no idea what the books are seeing out of Alabama to keep the total this low. Despite losing last week, the Tide put up 38 points and average over 44 on the year. So, what you’re telling me is, even if the Tide play “average” in a week where Saban has likely made his team fear legitimate death, they should get close to 45 points ALONE. Then we just need 14 out of Mississippi State who are coming off a bye week and who average around 28 per game (while Alabama concede 22). Yeah, I don’t know guys. I just don’t get this one. 57.5 feels extremely likely based on what we’re seeing out of these two right now, and it allows us to walk away from a dangerous line that requires making a lot of guesses about how Alabama will deal with their loss (remember, a lot of people lost money last week at halftime assuming the Tide would come back and win). Stay away from the 17 point spread and go with the over (again, I’m like a broken record at this point).
⛏️ PICK: Total points OVER 57.5
MORE: Alabama vs. Mississipi simulator
NC State vs. Boston College, Sat Oct 16, 7:30pm (EST)
BC football is my bread and butter. Very few people on the planet follow and watch more BC football than I do, mostly because of how painful and pathetic they can be. That said, this program is moving in the right direction and there’s a lot of earned optimism right now with the way things have progressed. And, despite every speck of history telling me otherwise, I’m drinking the Kool-Aid. Even after losing star QB Phil Jurkovec, who arguably could have been enough to lead BC to an ACC title with Clemson’s down year, the Eagles are playing solid football and are basically an even matchup with NC State. Both are 4-1 with a reasonable loss, score 30+ per game/concede around 16, and the only major difference is that BC fumbled a snap with goal to go at the end of their game with Clemson while NC State pulled off the late upset. So, with very little to separate the two, I’m not buying the Wolfpack as road favorites at all. Going to Chestnut Hill isn’t exactly the same challenge as an SEC away game (I’m not sure I’ve ever seen the stadium filled), but it’s still home field and BC can score points in bunches if you underestimate them (just ask Missouri). With a 3 point cushion to cover the end of game FG scenario, I think BC has a ton of value here and I think there’s a good chance they win this outright. Take the points.
⛏️ PICK: Boston College +3
MORE: NC State vs. BC simulator
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Prospector Sam is a cartoon man that handicaps as well as anyone on the planet. No one knows exactly who The Prospector is, but what is known is how well he does from sports betting.
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