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Free College Football Picks and Predictions – Week 6 Best Bets, Saturday October 9, 2021
Prospector Sam has arrived with your free NCAAF betting picks for the Week 6 action!
As I watched Alabama and Georgia play this weekend, I couldn’t help but laugh. It was truly beautiful seeing these two behemoths beat up on some of the best in the country, and a reminder that, as much as we get excited every year, some things never change. Big programs willing to pump millions into recruiting and perks for players will be good, and those who can’t will slowly drag behind. But, while that may be true, I also laughed because I’m 100% certain that everything is going to go off the rails before this season wraps up. While everyone is ready to crown the Dawgs and Tide as the best in the country, the CFB gods are going to throw at least one of them a curveball that even Barry Bonds in his steroidal prime couldn’t smash.
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How do I know? Well, history has a tendency of repeating itself and let’s just say it’s a pretty common trend. If you don’t believe me. go ask our friends over in the Pac 12, who cannot help but cannibalize themselves every year to the point where none of them has enough limbs to make the Playoff. Oregon was flying high, but the Ducks found a way to lose to a Stanford team with multiple losses and now it’s inevitable that the conference will be bitching come December when they’re disappointingly (and rightfully) left out. Oh, and speaking of programs who are destined to get screwed, get that silly little thought of Cincy defying the odds to make it to the promised land out of your brain. It’s not happening. As the year goes on and they beat up on the Tulsa’s of the world, they’ll become less and less relevant while their “big” wins over Indiana and ND will likely become less and less big. It’s a nice idea, but unless we get some TRUE chaos (and I mean people scrambling for their lives Squid Game style-chaos) then the Bearcats have no prayer. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.
And with that, back to picks. Another decent week leaves us still plugging along nicely on the season, but we have more bets to win and every week is a gift we must cherish.
Let’s get cracking! ⤵️
This week's CFB picks are proudly brought to you by BetMGM.
Free NCAAF Picks For Week 6, 2021
Oklahoma vs. Texas, Sat Oct 9, 12:00pm (EST)
In honor of a weekend of big games, I spent my time focusing on finding value in games worth watching rather than scrounging deep in the underbelly of the CFB slate for some edge in UMass-UConn. You’re welcome. That starts right off the bat with the Red River Rivalry, which will have a big role in whether a Big 12 team makes (and then immediately gets blown out in) the CFB Playoff. And, after a couple of weeks relying on the Longhorns, it’s time to flip the script. Texas certainly isn’t a bad team, and Bijan Robinson is a stud, but they’re a defensive nightmare and the matchup here isn’t great for them. Oklahoma is pretty hard to figure out right now, and they seem insistent on making things much harder for themselves than they should, but their rush defense is spectacular (83.6 YPG allowed), which will force Texas to beat them with their passing game. And, call me crazy, but I think forcing them to play against their strengths is going to be an issue. As for Oklahoma, there are cracks in the offense and defense but they’re undoubtedly a stronger team overall (and, at this point, filled with higher quality talent from recruiting). I think Oklahoma handles this game comfortably, and I’m willing to give up 3 against a Texas team who isn’t as good as their ranking or record suggests.
⛏️ PICK: Oklahoma -3 (2 units)
MORE: Oklahoma vs. Texas simulator
Arkansas vs. Ole Miss, Sat Oct 9, 12:00pm (EST)
Well, it was fun while it lasted for these two programs, but both crashed and burned last weekend (see above) when faced with a true top opponent, and both may still be licking their wounds and bruised egos come Saturday. While it’s hard to say how either will perform here given that massive letdown, I have a lot more confidence in the Razorbacks than I have in Ole Miss after what we saw. Now, I’m guessing most of you reading that sentence think I’m crazy, seeing as Arkansas got shut out while Ole Miss at least pulled back a shred of self respect with some late points. Hear me out. Arkansas relies heavily on the running game, which was always destined to be a massive problem against UGA, and it basically caused the offense to fall apart. Against similar defenses I’ll be worried for the Razorbacks, but Ole Miss isn’t good at anything defensively. Ole Miss, meanwhile, didn’t set up all that badly to score points against Alabama. They just got played off the field because they aren’t all that good (their best win is against Louisville, so I guess we shouldn’t be surprised). Overall, I still have much more belief in an Arkansas team with wins over Texas and Texas A&M, and I’ll gladly take 6 points on them in this one. It’s probably my favorite bet of the weekend.
⛏️ PICK: Arkansas +6 (3 units)
MORE: Arkansas vs. Mississippi simulator
Georgia vs. Auburn, Sat Oct 9, 3:30pm (EST)
What about Auburn’s play this season makes the books think this is going to go any better for them than it has for the other teams that UGA has swallowed whole? I honestly don’t see it. The Tigers pulled off an improbable comeback last week to beat LSU, which was mostly improbable because of how awful they looked for large portions of the game. Nothing about this team has inspired confidence, particularly as long as Bo Nix is starting at QB, and I think their offense has about as much hope against this UGA D as I have at winning a beauty pageant. As for Georgia, a lot of eyes are on J.T. Daniels at the moment to figure out whether he can play, but it really doesn’t seem to matter all that much. The Dawgs will run it down Auburn’s throat until they stack the box, which creates passing lanes and space for their talented receivers to run in. The gap in quality here really is huge, and I’ll give up 15 even on the road in a fairly big rivalry game for these programs.
⛏️ PICK: Georgia -15 (1.5 units)
MORE: Georgia vs. Auburn simulator
Wake Forest vs. Syracuse, Sat Oct 9, 3:30pm (EST)
Wake Forest being ranked in football doesn’t feel right. I say that both because this program is a mess that hardly ever wins, and because they really aren’t all that good. Fortunately for them, though, not all that much is going to change while playing crappy ACC competition so they’ll likely plug along winning games for a while. And, on cue, enter Syracuse, a team who just lost to FSU and hasn’t been relevant since the McNabb days (a player some of the younger readers here may barely remember watching it’s been so long). But, while I think there’s a bit of an edge on WF to cover the 6.5 points, it still isn’t clicking with my brain so I’m riding the over here. Both of these teams average over 30 PPG, and Wake has yet to score less than 35 so far this year. Assuming they keep up close to that point total, It’ll only take 21-24 points from the Orange to eclipse the 57 point mark, and I expect they manage it. Syracuse has a balanced offense that will keep the Deacons guessing, and Sean Tucker is a nightmare to hold down even with a strong defense. I think this game plays as more of a shootout, and 60+ feels likely to me here.
⛏️ PICK: Total points OVER 57 (2 units)
MORE: WF vs. Syracuse simulator
PSU vs. Iowa, Sat Oct 9, 4:00pm (EST)
I’m not sure whether to be excited or frightened for this game. A matchup between two of the top 4 ranked teams in the country should be exciting, but neither of them seems all that capable of scoring points (unless little Tua shows up and throws 9 picks) which leads to a low scoring game. While I’m tempted to take the over at such a low number (40.5), it’s absolutely a trap pick and I’m not falling for it. Instead, I’ll take the Hawkeyes. On paper, this game looks slightly skewed towards PSU who have better recruiting and more offensive weapons to pick from. But getting out of Kinnick with your head still on your shoulders is a feat very few achieve, and this game likely comes down to who wins the turnover battle. Between the home field advantage that will cause Clifford issues on offense and the incredible interception rate this Hawkeyes defense has, I think there’s a very good chance that Iowa comes out on the right side of that fight. Oh, and Iowa leads the country with an average of 2.4 turnovers per game (you know, if you want some hard stats to rely on). With a couple of short fields and solid but unproblematic play from Spencer Petras, I’ll take Iowa to win and cover the 1.5 points at home.
⛏️ PICK: Iowa -1.5 (1 unit)
MORE: Penn State vs. Iowa simulator
Michigan vs. Nebraska, Sat Oct 9, 7:30pm (EST)
Again? How many times do I have to write the same damn thing before the books figure their shit out (or before I get it wrong, I suppose). Michigan is filled with talent on their roster and is going to outplay all of these middling teams they keep beating up on. They did it to Wisconsin last week, haven’t won by less than 7 all season, and now they’re giving up 3.5 to a 3-3 Nebraska team. Give me a fucking break. Sure, the Huskers did well to keep it fairly close (but still lost) to OU and MSU, but they aren’t all that good unless you put them up against a program like Fordham or Northwestern. Michigan are a better team and should win this game by a TD or more. Don’t think about it too much.
⛏️ PICK: Michigan -3.5 (2 units)
MORE: Michigan vs. Nebraska simulator
LSU vs. Kentucky, Sat Oct 9, 7:30pm (EST)
MMMMMmmmm, do I love me a nice juicy under. Kentucky’s success for the remainder of the year hinges pretty heavily on holding SEC opponents to 20 points or less. They’ve done it the last two weeks (despite trying their absolute best to piss away their lead against Florida), and now they’re facing a one dimensional LSU offense who’s entire game plan is to let Max Johnson air it out. As we learned last week, that can be a problem against a decent defense, and Kentucky doesn’t look to be any easier to deal with than an Auburn team who had given up 24 to Georgia State the week before. So why not go with the Wildcats on the spread? I don’t trust their offense all that much either, and their 28.8 PPG should make you wary as well. A 51 point total isn’t all that high in the college football world, but between the style Kentucky plays and the fact that neither team seems capable of putting together a solid 60-minute offensive performance, I’m happy taking the under here. Expect things to slow down in the second half, particularly as both play for field position and possession advantages in a game that projects to be close.
⛏️ PICK: Total points UNDER 51 (1 unit)
MORE: LSU vs. Kentucky simulator
Alabama vs. Texas A&M, Sat Oct 9, 8:00pm (EST)
I’m betting based on a very simple principle for this game, and it’s one that probably shouldn’t shock anyone: Alabama is going to score points. Simply put, there are maybe 2 or 3 defenses in college football who could slow them down, and Texas A&M, while good, isn’t one of them. The Tide AVERAGE 45.6 points per game, and have been held under 40 once. So, while they may sit closer to that 35 point number in this game (at worst), a 51.5 point over feels generous. Sure, A&M aren’t exactly lighting up scoreboards, but Alabama has shown all year that they simply don’t care much about defense because they’re positive they can outscore you. Even Mercer managed 14 points, and if the Aggies get to that number or higher I’m very confident this game goes over. While the Alabama line is also tempting, the total feels safer and I’ll happily ride over 51.5 in pretty much any Alabama football game.
⛏️ PICK: Total points OVER 51.5 (2 units)
MORE: Alabama vs. Texas A&M simulator
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