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Free College Football Picks and Predictions – Week 5 Best Bets, Saturday October 2, 2021
Prospector Sam has arrived with your free NCAAF betting picks for the Week 5 action!
Some days, there just isn’t a lot to say. I like to open these articles with some funny or clever lead-in to make the writing more engaging (at least, I hope that’s the case, I have no idea if people actually read them), but when the creative flow hits a wall you’re better off walking away than trying to force it (somewhat like gambling, conveniently).
MORE: Best Sportsbook Football Promos
Between a busy work week for the real human behind the character and a lack of major headlines in CFB at the moment, this time I’m going to just skip right ahead to the picks. Apologies to those who enjoy them, but they’ll be back soon enough (or go read the other two articles, I could use the clicks and those have intros worth reading).
Without further ado, picks ⤵️
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Free NCAAF Picks For Week 5, 2021
Iowa vs. Maryland, Fri Oct 1, 8:00pm (EST)
Alright folks, let’s get this out on the table right now. One of the things you need to be aware of when betting is where the sharp money lies and where the public money lies, because the public is usually biased in predictable ways that end up screwing them. It’s something I check in on regularly, and if you see a massive disparity in public bets be weary. Why am I bringing this up? Well, this article is going to start with a string of picks that I fully expect the public to be all over, but I love them anyway. Bias doesn’t mean that the choice will be wrong, after all, and I’m going to dive in head first on these picks because I really like them (famous last words, possibly). To start things off, take Iowa -3.5 in their Friday night matchup against Maryland. The Terps have overperformed with little Tagovailoa leading the offense, but they haven’t done anything all that impressive unless you count an ugly week 1 win over WVU where everyone was awful. Iowa, on the other hand, have won two big games against ranked opponents by double digits, and look like a firm favorite to take the Big 10 West. So, at just -3.5, the line feels like a steal. Where are the hiccups? Well, Iowa doesn’t score all that many points which makes it harder for them to get big leads or put games away early. Also, it’s still unclear just how good little Tua is and he may be talented enough to cause this Hawkeyes defense issues. But, at the end of the day, Iowa has a ton more talent and a better coaching staff than Maryland, and they should be able to win this game by a touchdown as long as they get pressure on the QB. Take the Hawkeyes to cover.
⛏️ PICK: Iowa -3.5 (2 units)
MORE: Iowa vs. Maryland simulator
Arkansas vs. Georgia, Sat Oct 2, 12:00pm (EST)
Everyone and their brother is going to see Arkansas +18.5 and think it’s a steal, especially coming off their win against A&M. It’s not, so get that out of your head right now, but it is a good pick. Despite all their success so far, the Razorbacks are probably in for a pretty rude wake up call here. Texas is more of a name than an actual top program these days, and the Aggies had shown major cracks coming into last week that were exploited easily by Arkansas. But Georgia’s offensive and defensive line are filled with 4 and 5 star recruits that are going to bully this game, and Arkansas is going to get eaten alive by the Dawgs run game while having little room of their own to find yards on the ground (UGA gives up 66 YPG rushing). Arkansas’ only hope is to force J.T. Daniels into bad decisions, which Clemson did fairly successfully, and to exploit some deep coverage weaknesses on the other side of the ball, but they really don’t have much of a shot at actually winning. As for the line, though, I think they can cover this spread. Arkansas will likely slow down the game a bit to stop Georgia from getting too much momentum, and they have enough offensive talent to put up points even against the best Defense in the nation. I think this game probably waffles around the 15-20 point number for most of the second half, but between Arkansas’ talent and the backdoor cover opportunity at 18.5 I think the Razorbacks are the right bet.
⛏️ PICK: Arkansas +18.5 (1.5 units)
MORE: Arkansas vs. Georgia simulator
Michigan vs. Wisconsin, Sat Oct 2, 12:00pm (EST)
And for my third pick of the triumvirate of uncreative picks (but I get bonus points for recognizing it and explaining myself), let’s take a shot on the Wolverines. Like many of you, I flinch at the idea of trusting Jim Harbaugh in an important game and this feels like exactly the moment where Michigan is destined to fall apart at the seams based on their recent campaigns. The good news for them here, though, is that Graham Mertz is fucking terrible. Wisconsin’s had all their eggs in that basket this season, and Mertz hasn’t lived up to (or even come close to) those expectations which is going to kill them for the rest of the year whether they adjust or not. Michigan, meanwhile, has a clear identity that works. They’ve got boatloads of talent on the defensive side of the field that hold off better offenses and create big plays, and they’re gouging teams with their running attack. That’s a massive advantage for a road team as well, because crowd noise won’t have a huge effect when the game plan is “run right at the defense and see who’s better.” To put this one in simple terms, Michigan is a stronger team right now and it would take a pretty big uptick in play for Wisconsin to win this, which is hard to expect with subpar QB play. Take Michigan as an undeserved underdog.
⛏️ PICK: Michigan +2 (2.5 units)
MORE: Michigan vs Wisconsin simulator
Texas vs. TCU, Sat Oct 2, 12:00pm (EST)
Betting Texas against middling to poor teams is a perfect winning formula. The Longhorns haven’t bothered to perform in (or even show up at) important games in a long time, but boy are they good at beating up on the Texas Tech’s of the world by 35 and convincing their fan base that they’re actually good (a friend of mine texted me bemoaning that they weren’t in the Top 25 this week, and I just laughed at him). Here, we have another game that I expect to go similarly to their performance last week, with Texas facing a TCU team that just lost to SMU and hasn’t beaten anyone worth a damn all year. The Horned Frogs probably won’t have a ton of problems putting up points, considering Texas’ defense has been shaky all season, but Texas has too much talent offensively for them to keep up and stopping Bijan Robertson, one of the best running backs in the country, will be an absolute nightmare. This game should see a lot of points as well (if you’re looking to bet the over), but giving up just 5 on the Longhorns feels like great value to me. Take them to win big and make it back into the Top 25 before getting steamrolled by OU next weekend.
⛏️ PICK: Texas -5 (2 units)
MORE: Texas vs. TCU simulator
Cincinnati vs. Notre Dame, Sat Oct 2, 3:30pm (EST)
This is such an interesting matchup for so many reasons, and I wish I had a clue who was going to win, but I absolutely don’t. I’ve convinced myself about 30 different times that either of these teams is going to cover, and I think there’s good arguments to be made on either side, which tells me that touching spread is a bad fucking idea. The over, on the other hand, feels like a good one. Let’s start with the Irish, and their defense in particular, because I think that’s where this bet hinges. While ND held Wisconsin to 13 points over the weekend, that performance had a lot more to do with how inept Graham Mertz was than anything else, and this team has given up 29 and 38 to Toledo and Florida State respectively, neither of whom are all that good. Cincinnati’s offense is averaging over 40 on the season and is coming off a bye week to prepare for this game, and I expect Ridder to cause them all sorts of problems. That means the Irish will need to keep up offensive and open up their passing game, which has actually been successful when Brian Kelly lets the reins out a bit. This game probably isn’t going to get into the 70s, but I think 50.5 is low enough that this game makes it past the mark. It’ll make it more fun to watch what should be an interesting matchup anyway.
⛏️ PICK: Total points OVER 50.5 (2 units)
MORE: Cincinnati vs. ND simulator
Ole Miss vs. Alabama, Sat Oct 2, 3:30pm (EST)
Speaking of teams who play games in the 70s, enter Ole Miss. The total for this game is 80, which probably gave your grandpa a heart attack when he saw it, but that’s probably a fair number for these two. I’m tempted to go with the under based on how I see this game playing out, but I’m going to walk away from it because I love Alabama. The Tide have, in the past, had a sneaky habit of lulling people into a sense of comfort before blowing the doors off some strong SEC team that still isn’t good enough to compete with them. My brain tells me this is the game where that happens. Ole Miss’ defense can aptly be described as “laughable” and Alabama could put up 60 on their own if they wanted. The game will come down to how well the Rebels do on offense, and I expect Saban and Alabama have been preparing for how to slow down Corral (and how to cause some turnovers) since about 30 seconds after the Florida game ended. ‘Bama is filled with crazy talent on the defensive side of the field which will cause the Rebels issues, and I don’t think Saban makes the mistake of taking his foot off the pedal like they did against UF. Look for the Tide to start their scorched earth approach to another CFB title (or close to it, at least) with a big win over Ole Miss.
⛏️ PICK: Alabama -14.5 (1.5 units)
MORE: Ole Miss vs. Alabama simulator
Ohio State vs. Rutgers, Sat Oct 2, 3:30pm (EST)
If you want to trust Ohio State right now, be my guest, but you’re clearly seeing something that I’m not. The Buckeyes haven’t looked good all season and, while they’ve managed to keep offensive numbers up, they’re going to have a tougher time doing that this week, which is why I like the under here. Greg Schiano has done wonders with this Rutgers program already, and he’s bringing a disciplined defensive style to the table that will serve them extremely well in games like this. Schiano will have this team well prepared and a strong gameplan in place to limit Ohio State’s offense as much as possible. How? Well, stop the big plays, keep contain, and run the ball a bunch on offense to avoid getting into a marathon. Like the Knights did last week against Michigan, they’re going to slow the game down to keep Stroud out of rhythm, which will lead to less points and burn clock. Rutgers offense, while solid, is also going to struggle here even with how bad OSU’s D-Line has looked, and I don’t expect them to do a ton on that side of the field. I just have a hard time seeing how this one turns into a high scoring game unless we see turnovers or bad mistakes, and I think these teams are solid enough to avoid them. Take this total to come out closer to 50.
⛏️ PICK: Total points UNDER 58 (1 unit)
MORE: Ohio State vs. Rutgers simulator
ASU vs. UCLA, Sat Oct 2, 10:30pm (EST)
This may be my favorite bet of the week. These two teams fly all over the field, and play a pretty appealing style of football that leads to big plays and points. ASU averages 32.5 PPG on the year, while UCLA averages 39, which clearly suggests a high scoring game. Yet, the total is just 55.5, which is either a complete trap or an extremely generous miscalculation by the books. It may be foolish to think I’m that much smarter than Vegas, but I believe this game easily hits the 60s. The biggest factor you can point to for less points is ASU’s defense, which only concededes 16 per game. The issue with that is they’ve played a bunch of rec league teams except for BYU, who put up 27 and could have gotten more. And against this high flying Bruins offense, I just don’t see how ASU holds up. As for the other side of the ball, UCLA and Chip Kelly couldn’t give less of a fuck about playing disciplined defense. They take shots at turnovers and are willing to live with giving up touchdowns when it doesnt work out. That gives me a ton of confidence in points here, and I’ll be hammering this one.
⛏️ PICK: Total points OVER 55 (2.5 units)
MORE: Nebraska vs. Michigan State simulator
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Prospector Sam is a cartoon man that handicaps as well as anyone on the planet. No one knows exactly who The Prospector is, but what is known is how well he does from sports betting.
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