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Free College Football Picks and Predictions – Week 3 Best Bets
Prospector Sam has arrived with your free NCAAF betting picks for the Week 3 action!
Mediocrity is coursing through my veins, and it feels like gross sludge. After two weeks of football we’re 9-9 and down 0.21 units, which is just a whole lot of missed opportunities. Sure, that mindset may be a bit pessimistic since we aren’t losing money, but I like to think I’m good enough at this to, you know, actually make some profit. Sue me for aspiring to greater things in life than mediocrity (despite many teachers rightfully saying I would never achieve much more). But, while we only added a small net plus last week, there were reasons to feel like things are improving. I was spot on with some analysis, hit my higher unit bets, and was a couple of late swings away from a solid profit (looking at you, Arkansas…). I can feel a big week coming sometime soon, I just need to choose my spots a little better.
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Oh, and my BC Eagles are 2-0 and on their way to one of the biggest underdog national championships of all time. Sure, they’ve only beaten Colgate and UMass, which might not seem impressive to the untrained eye, but I can assure you that this team is ready for the big stage now that Clemson has fallen off its pedestal and FSU looks like they’re shotgunning 40s before every game (I’m genuinely unsure that I’ve ever seen a more incompetent performance than their loss to Jsacksonville Sate). So you heard it here first; BC is on the warpath to a massive season and you can all thank me later when you cash your futures slips (as I write this, I realize it may not be smart to say something so stupid while I try to convince people to tail me, but just let me have my fun until we lose to Missouri by 90).
Without further ado, picks ⤵️
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Free NCAAF Picks For Week 3, 2021
Cincinnati vs. Indiana, Sat Sept 18, 12:00pm (EST)
Two games into the season, and we still know very little about either of these teams. Sure, at the margins we learned a few things - both are capable of beating up on programs like Idaho or Murray State and Indiana isn’t in the same zip code as Iowa (both figuratively and literally) - but neither have played a real test in their wheelhouse. Well, that changes this week, and I’m willing to stake some money on the Bearcats to come out ahead. Indiana just isn’t all that good despite a surprising 2020 season and, while Penix Jr. may be an above average QB, he’s certainly not as skilled as Desmond Ridder. On top of that, it’s hard not to be alarmed by just how awful the Hoosiers played in week 1, and to ignore that the offense just isn’t strong overall. Despite smoking Idaho last weekend, Indiana only totaled 70 more yards of offense than the Vandals which is almost impossible for a team who won by 42 points, and I think they struggle again on Saturday. Cincy should be able to handle this matchup between their solid defense and Ridder’s arm, and the line also reeks of Power 5 conference bias. I’ll ride the Bearcats here.
⛏️ PICK: Cincinnati -3.5 (1.5 units)
MORE: Cincinnati vs. Indiana simulator
Michigan State vs. Miami, Sat Sept 18, 12:00pm (EST)
One of the worst mistakes I’ve made in my analysis this year was completely dismissing MSU before their week 1 battle with Northwestern. I was very wrong. Now, to be fair, I still dont think the Spartans are all that good, but they’re at least competent enough to hang with average teams and beat up on garbage like Youngstown State. Miami, meanwhile, is starting to show that they may have gotten a bit too much credit in preseason polls. Their loss to Alabama was hard to judge, but there was nothing subtle about their nightmare performance against App State that almost ended in an embarrassing home upset, and the sample size is getting big enough to be categorized as “concerning” (get it? Like the storm rating system because they’re the hurricanes? Yeah, you’re right, not that funny). The Canes are still probably the better and more talented team, but that’s not even a certainty any more and I’ll take the 7 points given how rough their start has been. I expect the Spartans to keep this one close and give them a scare.
⛏️ PICK: Michigan State +7 (2 units)
MORE: Michigan State vs. Miami simulator
Northern IL vs. Michigan, Sat Sept 18, 12:00pm (EST)
Michigan has been good to me these first two weeks, so I’m going back to the well for another winner. Unfortunately, the books have finally adjusted on their lines and I’m not laying 27 points on them, but the over has some serious value. The Wolverines average 39 points per game on the season and put up 47 on a Western Michigan team who couldn’t keep up with their talent level. Northern IL will be similarly outmatched, and there’s a good chance Michigan flirts with that 40 point mark again. So why not just take the line? Well, their defense hasn’t been spectacular, particularly against the passing game, and the Huskies had enough juice to beat a power 5 team in Georgia Tech (barely power 5, I know) which tells me they’re at least a threat to keep things respectable and/or throw in a back door cover. Northern Illinois isn’t going to give the Wolverines a scare, but they have a balanced offense that’s putting up close to 400 yards per game so far. As long as they reach 17+, I think this game goes over and I expect that’s exactly what happens.
⛏️ PICK: Cincinnati Total points OVER 54 (1.5 units)
MORE: Northern Illinois vs. Michigan simulator
Minnesota vs. Colorado, Sat Sept 18, 1:00pm (EST)
Minnesota’s solid performance against Ohio State in week 1 was better than most people expected, and they deserved a bit of a boost in public opinion from it. Then they came out and had to survive a dog fight with Miami Ohio, and all that went down the tubes. The reality is that the Gophers had the benefit of a shaky Buckeyes first half but nothing in the last 6 quarters they’ve played gives you much optimism. Oh, and good fucking luck scoring this weekend; as Texas A&M learned on Saturday, that’s a lot easier said than done against Colorado. The Buffaloes held a top 10 SEC opponent to 10 points in a 10-7 loss where they may have deserved better, and they overperformed despite a pretty wide gap in overall talent. That gap wont exist against Minnesota, and the Pac 12 is showing right now that they deserve some benefit of the doubt after a couple of solid out of conference wins. I think Colorado, at home, is good enough to win this game and the two point spread isn’t too big to scare me off. As long as it’s a field goal or less, go with CU Boulder.
⛏️ PICK: Colorado -2.5 (1 unit)
MORE: Minnesota vs. Colorado simulator
Alabama vs. Florida, Sat Sept 18, 3:30pm (EST)
In all honesty, I’m pretty sure Alabama can choose how many points they want to score, and the only thing stopping them from going higher is the mercy of Tuscaloosa Jesus (aka Nick Saban). You can’t glean a ton from their win over Mercer, but they put up 44 on Miami and have been pretty dominant on that side of the ball. Defensively they aren’t perfect, but they don’t really need to be and Saban knows it. So, naturally, I’m going with the over. Florida is the best team the Tide have seen but the Gators’ defense is an issue (giving up 20 to USF is never a good look) and they’re turnover prone which will give easy scoring opportunities to a Tide unit that doesn't need any help. On the other side of the ball, the Gators still have big play ability and will likely be able to notch some points of their own as these defenses will get very little time to rest. I think this game gets up to a big number, and 59 feels shockingly low for two teams that average over 80 points combined per game on the year. Look for this one to be a shootout.
⛏️ PICK: Total points OVER 59 (2 units)
MORE: Alabama vs. Florida simulator
Tulsa vs. Ohio State, Sat Sept 18, 3:30pm (EST)
This game screams “take your anger out on a weaker team after a bad loss by beating them within an inch of their life.” Last weekend I could hear the wailing of Ohio State fans from all the way in [redacted for personal information], and it was music to my ears. State pride should be reserved for places that have something to be proud of, and Ohio is not one of those places. Putting my personal animus aside, though, this is still a very good team who will be fighting an uphill battle to get back to the playoffs after an ugly home loss where they were favored by 2 TDs. The Buckeyes could still make a push for it, but will need to fix issues on both sides of the ball quickly. My guess is they make a lot of progress this week after a bunch of verbal abuse from their coaches, and they handle a completely outclassed Tulsa team (who recently lost to UC Davis) by anywhere from 30-40 points. It’s not entirely scientific, but sometimes situations, not just skill, dictate outcomes, and this feels like one of those moments for me. Lay the points and take the Buckeyes.
⛏️ PICK: Ohio State -24.5 (1.5 units)
MORE: Cincinnati vs. Indiana simulator
Auburn vs. Penn State, Sat Sept 18, 7:30pm (EST)
How quick the world is to forget about the nightmare that was Auburn football last year. But, while 50+ point wins over Akron and Alabama State may be enough to appease the Auburn faithful, I’m not sure that’s such a smart idea (in fact, if you couldn’t tell from my blatant previewing, I think it’s a terrible one). Bo Nix is a below average QB that’s held onto the starting role but is never going to be good enough to get the Tigers back to the top of the heap. Auburn is also still adjusting to a new coaching staff after the departure of Gus Malzahn and the tune of their fans should change real fast when they come up against, well, an actual football team (much offense to Akron and Alabama State). The Nittany Lions, meanwhile, went into Maddison and beat the Badgers, and look like a solid team who could give Ohio State a real shot this season. Sean Clifford still needs to be a bit better, but PSU won’t be outmatched against Auburn like most non-SEC teams and I expect they’ll be too much for the Tigers to handle in State College. 5.5 is admittedly a lot to give up, but it’s the right play here.
⛏️ PICK: Penn State -5.5 (1 unit)
MORE: Auburn vs. Penn State simulator
ASU vs. BYU, Sat Sept 18, 10:15pm (EST)
It’s pretty hard to find two colleges with less in common than these two. On one side, you have debauchery-filled ASU, known for partying and more partying, while on the other side you have the Mormon pillar that is BYU, where getting caught simply having impure thoughts can land you in the hot seat. A real battle of good and evil, if you will (though I’m not exactly sure which side is the good one here. Maybe evil 1 and evil 2). As for the game itself, I associate more with the former style so I guess I’ll ride with the Sun Devils. In all seriousness, BYU isn’t as good as their record suggests. While wins over Utah and Arizona that appear impressive, they actually average more yards conceded than gained and are giving up close to 400 yards per game. Bend don’t break works some days, but eventually those numbers are going to come back and haunt them. Jayden Daniels is talented enough to be the guy to snap them, and Herm Edwards has enough football knowledge in his pinky toe to cause most college teams issues from a strategy standpoint. I like ASU to take this one by a decent margin against an overrated BYU team.
⛏️ PICK: ASU -3.5 (2 units)
MORE: ASU vs. BYU simulator
SATURDAY CFB HUB:
🏈 PROP HOLLIDAY'S CFB BEST BETS
🏈 PROSPECTOR SAM'S WEEK 3 CFB PICKS
🏈 PROJECTIONS FOR EVERY GAME
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