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Free College Football Picks and Predictions – Week 11 Best Bets, Saturday November 13, 2021
Prospector Sam has arrived with your free NCAAF betting picks for the Week 11 action!
Well folks, last week we flirted with disaster. And no, I don’t mean my mediocrity in the CFB gambling department, which was frustrating to say the least. I mean Alabama trying their absolute hardest to ruin the season for everyone by losing to another average football team. How would that ruin the season, you ask? Well, based on my scientific and masterful analysis, there are MAYBE 4 teams in the country who have a prayer of beating Georgia, and that’s being generous by including Oregon and A&M (two huge longshots, but ones who do have a sliver of hope).
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So, if Alabama were to lose again, effectively ending their playoff hopes and, likely, their SEC Championship hopes, we would be left with a CFP that’s nearly a foregone conclusion. Even still, it might be. Because I have rarely seen any team in college football do what Georgia is doing this season. They’re so good, they have opposing coaches desperately trying to score last second TDs (and, in the hilarious case of Missouri last weekend, failing embarrassingly) just to close the gap to a “less pathetic” loss. In an age where defense is an afterthought for most college coaches, Georgia has found a way to metaphorically castrate every offense they’ve faced, and it’s pretty magical to behold.
So here’s to hoping that we get some meaningful games late in this season that are close and exciting, because god help me if I have to see a repeat of the Playoffs last year without a single close game. At the very least, let’s get this gold train back on track and win money so that we have something to celebrate as we stumble around after 10 hours of drinking on Saturday (what? that’s just me? Oh, nevermind, I was just kidding).
Here are your picks! ⤵️
This week's CFB picks are proudly brought to you by BetMGM.
Free NCAAF Picks For Week 11, 2021
Michigan vs. PSU, Sat Nov 13, 12:00pm (EST)
When I saw Michigan was an underdog in this game, my brain contorted like one of those women who can put their knee cap behind their head. At 8-1, I figured the Wolverines would probably be slight favorites at worst against struggling PSU, but after factoring in Michigan’s loss to MSU (and then MSU’s loss to Purdue) I realized that it’s not that crazy of a spread. All that said, give me Michigan. Penn State still has a ton of trouble scoring the football, in part because they’re basically dragging Sean Clifford’s maimed body across the field at this point, and their only hope of winning games is the defense holding up. Unfortunately for the Nittany Lions, Cade McNamara has looked surprisingly capable when throwing the ball over the last few weeks, and it’s tough to stop this offense when it’s more than a one dimensional run game (as a cartoon, I highly advocate for two dimensions). I think Michigan does enough damage offensively to put points on the board, and Penn State doesn’t have the skill or the gas to keep up as they deal with injuries and the fact that their season died (along with their pride) when they lost to Illinois. Michigan covers (and wins) this one.
⛏️ PICK: Michigan +1
MORE: Michigan vs. Penn State simulator
West Virginia vs. KSU, Sat Nov 13, 12:00pm (EST)
A low total in a Big 12 game is like meeting your significant other at a family reunion (aka, unnatural and uncomfortable). I just find it hard to wrap my head around defense in that conference, even when teams like Oklahoma State are showing an actual commitment to disciplined football. This game, however, is even more puzzling because neither of these programs are all that great defensively either. Both the Mountaineers and Wildcats give up over 20 per game, and the only thing that hinders this over is whether either can get good enough QB play. It’s a bit dicey, but I expect this matchup to get over the line. WVU’s defense has been a wreck the last few weeks and Kansas State should be able to hit them for close to 30 if they perform as well as they have of late. While West Virginia’s offense is more concerning, I think 20+ is doable against a defense that’s conceded that number in 4 of their 6 conference games. It’s not one I’m wild about, but 47 is just too low here. Take the over.
⛏️ PICK: Total points OVER 47
MORE: West Virginia vs. Kansas State simulator
Georgia State vs. Coastal Carolina, Sat Nov 13, 2:00pm (EST)
We’re diving pretty deep into the well for this one, but I go where the value takes me, and with extra time for football this week (no soccer) I figured I’d throw in a few more interesting bets. I LOVE the Chanticleers here. Despite having a rough patch over the last few weeks, CCU has a 25 point differential between their average points scored and allowed on the year and they feast on lower end teams. While Georgia State has a bit of a pulse, it’s closer to a gerriatric one than that of a marathon runner. The Panthers are 4-5 on the year and concede over 400 YPG, which the Chants will feast on given their incredibly talented offense. I think they could win this by upwards of 20 at home, and I’ll gladly give up the 10 here.
⛏️ PICK: CCU -10
MORE: Georgia State vs. Coastal Carolina simulator
Boston College vs. Georgia Tech, Sat Nov 13, 3:30pm (EST)
I’m not saying that BC would have won a National Championship if Jurkovec hadn’t gotten hurt, but I’m also not NOT saying it. And the return of our star QB was all the difference we needed to blow the doors of VT last week (I understand that has much more to do with giving up 3 points, but his presence was obviously motivation for the defence). In all seriousness, this is a completely different team with Jurkovec at the helm, and getting him back makes the Eagles an above average unit who can handle most teams in the ACC. As for GT, I don’t know where you find optimism. Aside from a bizarre victory over UNC, their only wins are against Duke and Kennesaw State, and they’re 2-5 in conference. Getting points on the Eagles, even in Atlanta, is a pretty nice bonus and I think the books are still too cautious about BC because of their poor midseason stretch playing with a 3rd string QB. Take BC to cover.
⛏️ PICK: BC +2
MORE: BC vs. GT simulator
Georgia vs. Tennessee, Sat Nov 13, 3:30pm (EST)
20.5? That’s all I have to give up on Georgia? You bet your sweet keister I’ll be taking that number. Setting aside the Clemson game in week 1, Georgia has covered 20.5 in every game except for their 17 point win over Kentucky after a last minute TD by the Wildcats. Maybe not all that impressive if you’re a great team playing in a weak conference (although Cincinnati doesn’t seem interested in that idea either), but 7 of the Dawg’s wins have been over SEC teams, which makes that statistic absolutely bonkers. As for Tennessee, I have no idea how they buck this trend. The Vols win games by scoring a lot of points, which simply isn’t going to happen against a Georgia team averaging 6.6 points against, and their defense is about as effective as a garden hose trying to put out a forest fire. The way to challenge UGA is to exploit some of their offensive issues and control the clock, and Tennessee isn’t built to do either of those things. I love UGA at this number, and I’ll gladly give up 20.5.
⛏️ PICK: Georgia -20.5
MORE: Georgia vs. Tennessee simulator
Purdue vs. Ohio State, Sat Nov 13, 3:30pm (EST)
Purdue is on my shit list at the moment for burning me a few times in recent weeks. They seem to only show up when I bet against them and then implode when I ride with them. So, while I’m reluctant to take another bite at the apple, I’ll be doing so here because I just can’t pass up a good opportunity to fade Ohio State. Aside from a string of blowouts in the middle of the season against the murderers row of Akron/Rutgers/Maryland/Indiana, Ohio State hasn’t looked all that spectacular this season. They’re struggling to pull away in games and their offensive numbers are pretty bloated by their easier opponents. Sure, the Buckeyes are still a damn good team and likely to make the Playoffs at this point, but not good enough to be 20 point favorites here. Purdue, for all their failures (for example, choosing to live in Indiana), still has a solid defense and rarely fails to keep games close. I think they grind along in this one for 3 quarters until they end up losing by around 14-17, but that’s still more than enough to get us our cover. Take the points.
⛏️ PICK: Purdue +20
MORE: Purdue vs. OSU simulator
Miami vs. FSU, Sat Nov 13, 3:30pm (EST)
I’m going to be honest, I have absolutely no interest in this game aside from enjoying the downfall of two of the biggest programs in the country into the depths of mediocrity with the rest of us. But, then I saw the line, and that all went out the window. Miami has been much better since they transitioned to Tyler Van Dyke at QB, and they’ve rattled off three straight wins, two of which were over ranked opponents. FSU? Well, they’re just an abomination. A 3 game win streak brought some semblance of respectability back to Tallahassee, but they’ve returned to their losing ways and this team has a long way to go before being remotely competitive again. Miami can handle them comfortably with the talent they’ve got, and the only wrench is that this is a rivalry game which sometimes leads to weird outcomes. Overall, though, Miami is just too good to only be giving up 2.5, and I’ll take that number against 3-6 FSU all day.
⛏️ PICK: Miami -2.5
MORE: Miami Florida vs. Florida State simulator
Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss, Sat Nov 13, 7:00pm (EST)
FUCK YOU LANE! Yeah, look, I may have some bias here so take everything with a grain of salt, but I hope they make Lane Kiffin watch clips of his team failing on long 4th down attempts in the fiery pits of hell until the end of time. Oh, you want some analysis of the actual game? Fine, I guess I can do that too. Texas A&M’s mid-season rough patch was pretty ugly, but the turnaround has been spectacular and I don’t think the Aggies are getting enough credit. They beat Alabama (which is enough in itself to be impressed), then rattled off a couple of comfortable wins before beating Auburn 20-3. This defense is elite (which is why I put them in the ranks of “teams who could give Georgia a game”), and the offense is competent enough, particularly on the ground, to put up the points necessary to win games. Ole Miss hasn’t looked like the same team with all the injuries they’ve had at wide out, and that’s going to be the difference against an A&M unit who only gives up 14.7 PPG on the season. The Aggies are the better overall program, with better coaching (to bring things full circle. Once again, I hate you Lane) and higher recruiting talent, and I expect them to win this one by closer to 7.
⛏️ PICK: Texas A&M -2.5
MORE: Texas A&M vs. Mississippi simulator
NC State vs. Wake Forest, Sat Nov 13, 7:30pm (EST)
Wake Forest football is a gift. This team has spent the entire season doubling down on their offense like some fool at the roulette table who just keeps hitting, and over the last few Saturdays they’ve played games where defense wasn’t even considered an option. Last week’s 55-58 loss to UNC may have been the crown jewel, but 4 of their last 5 games have eclipsed 70 total, with the one exception being the Deacs having mercy on Duke in a blowout. Sure, NC State has a better defense than many of the teams that Wake has played, but I don’t see how this number can sit anywhere below 70. Each team averages over 30 PPG (WF is actually at 44.7, so over 30 is a bit misleading), and Wake isn’t interested in getting into a strategic battle unless the strategy is “take turns punching each other until one team finally dies.” This game will be end to end as these two battle for a spot in the ACC Championship (barring a wild last few weeks), and I expect another high total. 66.5 is simply too low for this matchup.
⛏️ PICK: Total points OVER 66.5
MORE: NC State vs. Wake Forest simulator
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Prospector Sam is a cartoon man that handicaps as well as anyone on the planet. No one knows exactly who The Prospector is, but what is known is how well he does from sports betting.
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