Free College Football Picks and Predictions – Week 1 Best Bets

You probably didn’t know that cartoons could cry, but there’s a solitary tear of joy sliding down my cheek as I scan across the gambling board, knowing that football is back for the next 6 months. 

The powers that be got the timing perfect, too, because soccer is on international break, which means I have nothing else to write about (I’m sure they planned this all for me, and no other reason). So welcome to the Prospector’s weekly college football article, filled with analysis and jokes and some solid bets to help you make money.

Unfortunately, I don’t have any previous numbers to back up my profitability because I started at Dimers in December, but, for those of you who follow me regularly, you know I put the time in. I’m an avid football fan and I know my shit when it comes to gambling, so I promise I’ll provide you with some good ideas and you can do with them what you will.

RELATED: How to bet on College Football

To start, let’s get my rooting interests out now so you know where I stand and you can adjust for any bias you think I have. I went to BC and regularly watch my Eagles, so get ready for more BC bets on here than you’ll see anywhere else (this is my party, I do what I want). I’m also marrying into a UGA family, so I’m at least partially obligated to root for the Dawgs (which is technically better than BC, so I’ll take it).

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Aside from that, I don’t have much else to say (those are words I rarely utter, so cherish it). It’s Week 1 of College Football which is a field of landmines as far as gambling is concerned because of all the unknowns and new players we have to deal with. But those challenges also mean that there’s value because books don’t exactly know what to expect either. So let’s go make some money (Note, all games are considered -110 because I’m picking at the book spread/total).

Free College Football Picks

North Carolina vs.VirginiaTech

Friday, September 3, 6PM (EST)

Anyone who read my CFB preview/futures article knows I’m pretty high on this UNC program right now. Mack Brown was a solid pick up to lead the Heels, and he’s turned them into a top program in the ACC (not exactly a high bar these days, but still). Are they contending for the CFB playoff? Probably not, but they’re a good bet to win the Coastal division with Sam Howell back at QB and a top 15 recruiting class.

Moving on to the actual game, winning Blacksburg has never been easy, but this VT program isn’t what it used to be (or even fucking close, honestly). The Hokies went 5-6 last season, losing to UNC by 11 and to powerhouses like Wake Forest and Liberty. Justin Fuente just hasn’t produced as a recruiter, and VT continues to slip further into the pit of irrelevance year after year (which, in all honesty, probably makes sense for a school in the middle of bumblefuck Virginia). UNC is more talented, and VT lost their starting QB to the transfer portal which will mean a new face running the offence with very little experience. That’s a big problem, and I expect UNC handles them comfortably. Only giving up 5.5 feels like a steal.

💰 Pick: UNC -5.5 (2 Units)
🤖 UNC vs. Virginia Tech simulated 10,000 times

Michigan State vs. Northwestern

Friday, September 3, 9PM (EST)

Betting early season college football can be extremely difficult because there are so many unknowns. There’s no pre-season, very little information on new starters, and you have to make a lot of assumptions to figure out exactly what will happen. Because of that, I’ve developed some tricks and tendencies that I rely on to simplify the process in predictable ways. I discussed the importance of new quarterbacks in the last pick, but this one is even easier. I LOVE fading programs that are holding on to past glory days.

USC is usually the one I look for to “underperform” based on bloated preseason expectations, and MSU has also dropped right into that category since the departure of Dantonio. The Spartants went 2-5 last year, brought in the 46th best recruiting class in the country, and just aren’t the same perennial Big10 contender they used to be. Northwestern isn’t exactly spectacular either (and are a team you should never root for, since students shake their car keys at home games to show off their future superiority to “dumber” Big10 schools), but the Wildcats made a surprise run to the Big10 Championship last season and look like the better coached team (which makes a huge difference early in the year). Giving up just 3 points at home, I like them to cover here.

💰 Pick: NW -3 (1 Unit)
🤖 Michigan State vs. Northwestern simulated 10,000 times

Penn State vs. Wisconsin

Saturday, September 4, 12PM (EST)

It feels odd betting the over in a Wisconsin football game, but sometimes you have to step out of your comfort zone. This game comes down to one question that is basically impossible to answer, but I’ll give it a shot; what the fuck do you make of Graham Mertz and Sean Clifford. Both have the talent to be top college QBs, but both were extremely inconsistent last year which caused their programs to struggle.

Call me an optimist, but I think they both get their heads on straight this fall. The 2020 college football season was a chaotic clusterfuck, and trying to quarterback a team in the middle of Covid and game cancellations and all of the logistical nightmares couldn’t have been easy. These two are extremely talented, and I expect a year of real preparation and normalcy will do fucking wonders for them, which should lead to better overall performances.

Is that scientific in any way? Absolutely not, it’s pure intuition (but gambling isn’t a math problem, it takes creativity some days too). So, with two experienced QBs leading teams loaded with talent, I expect the number gets a bit higher than the books do.

Defenses always struggle early in the year with a lack of game tape, and I think that presents a lot of chances for big plays and better offensive output. Also, it’s still somewhat warm in Wisconsin right now, which means teams can actually fucking throw the ball in stead of just handing it off and praying they dont die of frostbite. I see this game closer to the mid 50s as far as points, which makes the over the right bet.

💰 Pick: Over 49.5 (1 Unit)
🤖 Penn State vs. Wisconsin simulated 10,000 times

Western Michigan vs. Michigan

Saturday, September 4, 12PM (EST)

Michigan football is basically a running punchline at this point, and it’s absolutely deserved. Their failures, which have been pretty spectacular as of late, can be attributed to one thing; John Harbaugh sucks at half of his job.

As I see it, CFB coaching actually can be broken down into 2 requirements, being a good recruiter and being a good football coach. Harbaugh is undoubtedly one of the best recruiters, but performances on the field never live up to the level of talent. All that aside, though, they also have so much fucking talent that they can win games by a landslide based on that superiority alone. This, right here, is one of those games.

There are very few Western Michigan players who could even sniff the Wolverine’s roster, and it’s going to be hard for them to hold up athletically. They’ll get bullied on both sides of the line, and Michigan should be able to beat them by a pretty crooked number.

I could get deeper into positional analysis or matchups, but I try to keep things as simple as possible here, and this feels like the kind of game where Michigan takes a huge lead then just suffocates the game until the final whistle (just like Harbaugh is slowly suffocating this program, ironically). Look for the Wolverines to win by 21 to 24 points.

💰 Pick: Michigan -17.5 (1.5 Units)
🤖 West Michigan vs. Michigan simulated 10,000 times

Army vs. Georgia State

Saturday, September 4, 12PM (EST)

Death, taxes, and Army boring the hell out of everyone with the triple option. The Black knights slow down the game and wind clock by running the ball on almost every play, and it leads to low scoring games. I could complicate this pick with more nuanced analysis, but I just don’t see a reason to.

Army played 12 games last season, and just 3 of them would have covered this 50.5 number. Georgia State likes to force a higher tempo game with more offense, but Army simply aren’t interested and won’t give them a choice. The military isn’t exactly known for being accommodating or conciliatory, after all. At such a high number (relatively speaking) for an Army total, I think this has great value.

💰 Pick: Under 50.5 (2 Units)
🤖 Army vs. Georgia State simulated 10,000 times

Rice vs. Arkansas

Saturday September 4, 2PM (EST)

This one is going to read pretty similar to the Michigan pick, so I won’t bore you with too much nonsense. Arkansas brings in SEC talent, and Rice brings in guys shaped like a grain of basmati (making an applicable rice joke may be an all time highlight for me).

Even if the Razorbacks get bent over the barrel most weeks in the SEC, they’ll be far too good for a Rice program that lost to North Texas and Middle Tennessee last season. Arkansas wins this game by a bunch, and the only danger at this number is a sad back door cover.

💰 Pick: Arkansas -18.5 (1 Unit)
🤖 Rice vs. Arkansas simulated 10,000 times

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Louisiana Lafayette vs. Texas

Saturday, September 4, 4:30PM (EST)

This is extremely hard for me to do. Not only do I hate the Sarkisian hire (go look at how bad he’s been everywhere he’s gone, and explain to me how this works out), but betting Texas spits right in the face of my “programs hanging on to past achievements” policy.

That said, this line is bananas. Credit to ULL for a great season last year in some strange circumstances, but this is not a top 25 team and they don’t have a fucking prayer of winning at Texas. ULL’s 2020 campaign was defined by a win over Iowa State in week 1, but the Cyclones defense looked like a colander trying to hold water and their offense was somehow worse.

After that game, though, the Ragin Cajuns best win was a bowl victory over UTSA, which isn’t exactly impressive. Good for them for performing and for getting the early season ranking, but don’t expect that to last. Texas will have more talent all over the field, will have a major home field advantage, and should come out firing after another disappointing season.

They’re likely a Top 15 team who should finish second to Oklahoma in the Big 12 this season (I don’t care what people say about Iowa State, I’m not sold), while ULL is in the 40-60 range nationally. I think Texas thumps the Cajuns, and 8 points is way too low for a game that would be lopsided if it weren’t for a fluke win in Ames 12 months ago.

💰 Pick: Texas -8.0 (2U)
🤖 Louisiana Lafayette vs. Texas simulated 10,000 times

Georgia vs. Clemson

Saturday, September 4, 7:30PM (EST)

For anyone not paying attention, the major lesson we learned last season was that College Football has given up on the idea of winning with defense. Even the longtime SEC holdouts who wanted to play hard nosed football caved in favor of the West Coast offense (at least in terms of speed), and we saw shootout after shootout in big games.

Hell, the National Championship had 76 fucking points, which is wild to even think about. You see where I’m going with this already, so I won’t waste your time - Over 51.5 is a fucking steal here. Both programs have strong QBs and have the talent to put up points. While there may be some early season kinks to work out (but who doesn’t have a few kinks?), expect both these teams to put points on the board and for this one to get closer to the 60 point number. It’s the reality we all need to embrace.

💰 Pick: Over 51.5 (2 Units)
🤖 Georgia vs. Clemson simulated 10,000 times

UTSA vs. Illinois

Saturday, September 4, 7:30PM (EST)

Information is key in gambling, and one of the few teams playing that we have any clue about is Illinois. The Illini came out and beat Nebraska at home as a 7 point dog, putting up 30 points despite 19 total pass attempts for the game.

You can look at that one of two ways. Either the Illini can score and they produced despite limited offense, or this team just got lucky to put up that many points. I’m not sure I’m fully committed to it, but I lean towards the former. I think Illinois is going to be a better program with Bielema at the helm, and they should execute at a higher level than they ever did under Lovie.

The line is a bit too high for me, especially with that bit of uncertainty I discussed before, but I really like the over. Illinois should be able to score against a UTSA team that will have a less talented roster, while the Roadrunners have shown in recent years that they’re capable of notching points against tougher competition (20 points against BYU and 27 against ULL last season).

As long as we get some offensive production from the visitors, I think 49.5 is a very reachable number, even with Illinois’ limited passing attack. Take this one to make it past the mark this time (and my condolences to those who had over 52.5 last week).

💰 Pick: Over 49.5 (1 Unit)
🤖 UTSA vs. Illinois simulated 10,000 times

College Football may have started but there’s still time to get your furutres bets down 😤@prospector_sam has put together a detailed review of 15 team's chances because he loves you 🏈

(P.S. he’s got picks coming for Week 1 too)#GamblingTwitter💵 https://t.co/vU2wtIpQAh

— Dimers.com (@DimersCom) August 31, 2021

Louisville vs. Ole Miss

Monday September 6, 8PM (EST)

There is a 100% chance I’ll have this game on my TV come Monday night, just because of the absurdity of this Ole Miss offence. How absurd is it? The over for this game is 75.5 points. I dont care who you are, that’s fun to watch, and I respect Lane Kiffin for having absolutely no desire to play disciplined football (as a causal viewer, at least, must be a fucking nightmare as an actual fan). But, even though I want to, I’m staying away from the total. 75.5 is still just too scary and my brain keeps short circuiting every time I try to rationalize the over.

So, instead, I’ll take the Rebels at -9.5. Remember that thing I said before about programs who used to be good but aren’t any more. Yeah, Louisville is a great example. The Cardinals went 4-7 last year in a weak ACC and are just nowhere near what they used to be in the Lamar Jackson years. Ole Miss may not be a spectacular program, but they have SEC talent and they won’t struggle to put up points against a Louisville team who gave up 40+ 3 times last season.

The Rebels win this by around 2 touchdowns, and I love them at just -9.5.

💰 Pick: Ole Miss -9.5 (1.5 Units)
🤖 Louisville vs. Ole Miss simulated 10,000 times

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