How about a walk down Narrative Street for Week 18 in the NFL? Every year, dozens of players enter the final week of the regular season with a contract set to expire after the final game. Some of them are simply waiting for extensions while others hang in the balance, unsure of what the future holds.
These moments can be bittersweet for many, as it's not uncommon that these are players who will be finishing their first or second contracts with the teams that originally drafted them. Any number of reasons can lead to moving on, though most often it's because of financial restructuring or a franchise rebuild. Emotion is always in play in sports and for these players, the drive to perform and score can be turned way up to 11 with the thought of the unknown, or even more so in the case of these 13 players who have contract incentives on the line.
So, we're taking a look at five players who have a legitimate case to score in what very well may be their final game with their original team. As mentioned, there are dozens of these players each year so to narrow it down, we've used a few self-selected criteria. These five players are all on expiring first or second contracts with their original team (franchise tag or full extension), are considered a star level of talent by consensus and have all been eliminated from the postseason, meaning Week 18 is the end of this season's run for all five.
Derrick Henry
Is the King's reign coming to end an in Tennessee? He's still looked pretty great at times this season but has registered a career-low 3.9 YPC and at 1,014 rushing yards through 16 games, he's at his lowest mark since 2021 when he put up 937 yards...in just 8 games. Henry's too good to not get another deal from another team, but it's likely not going to be in Tennessee. He's been outsnapped 541 to 522 this season by rookie Tyjae Spears, though Henry dominated the TD equity at 13-1.
With Tennesse missing the playoffs yet again, there will likely be some big cuts made and roster turnover to be had as they look to right the ship. Tennesse has over $90M of cap space so signing Henry is certainly in play, but he's prepared to give it his all as potentially his final game in power blue.
DimersBOT projects Henry with a 49.3% probability to score against the Jags' stout run defense.
Anything in plus money range is a value play on Henry and he's currently +105 on
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Austin Ekeler
What a crash down to earth this season has been for Austin Ekeler. After back-to-back seasons of 1,500+ total yards and 18+ touchdowns as a fantasy football darling, Ekeler plodded to a career-low 3.6 YPC, six touchdowns and a hair over 1,000 total yards in a season that also saw him miss three games. The Chargers cleaned house after an utterly embarrassing loss to the Raiders and now can move on from Ekeler with no hit to their cap. Even if the Chargers show interest in re-signing Ekeler, he's been vocal about the franchise not putting the tools in place for the team to succeed.
"I think I’m going to be real selective on where I play next season...This season has been a collective of not good things happening. It’s hard to be like this is the reason why, in my opinion. The product on the field hasn’t been at a level where it needs to be for us to win," said Ekeler.
With a desire to show what he can do for the teams he may be courting this offseason, Ekeler will be motivated to find the endzone in Week 18. He gets a 45.6% probability from DimersBOT to punch his way into the endzone which makes anything at +120 or better a fair play.
Saquon Barkley
We can say with absolute certainty that Saquon Barkley will be the last running back in the NFL to be drafted second overall. The position is no longer viewed as it once was, with many teams beginning to opt for the mid-round or UDFA discount option or a pair of them to form a backfield committee. The Giants sprang big back in 2018 by picking Saquon with their No. 2 overall pick. Since then, only a handful of other running backs have been drafted in the first round, including Josh Jacobs (24th OVR) who's in this article. The 2022 Draft saw zero backs in the first and last year we saw the Falcons draft Bijan Robinson at 8th overall, who not surprisingly, drew consistent pre-draft comparisons to Barkley.
Saquon maxed out his best YPC in his rookie season and has been hampered by injuries and contract beefs since. Couple that with a Giants team that can't seem to get moving in the right direction and actually went backward this season, and it's hard to imagine he'll be back, especially when he was leading the charge for "underpaid" running backs in the offseason. Still, Saquon is a fan favorite and the Giants would be fair to let him show what he can still do. The Eagles may take things easy as they prep for the playoffs, so we could see a softer defensive effort.
DimersBot projects Saquon with a 46.2% TD probability, making his fair price around +115, far away from his -135 odds available on Fanduel Sportsbook right now.
Josh Jacobs
Josh Jacobs hasn't suited up since Week 14 and is a game-time decision for Sunday's tilt with the Denver Broncos, so Jacobs may have already played his final game for the Raiders. However, he's reportedly "fighting til the end" to get the start so he's made the cut here. Las Vegas is likely to hit a full-on rebuild this offseason. Head Coach Josh McDaniels got the boot along with GM Dave Ziegler, meaning owner Mark Davis is the only one remaining from the front office that drafted Jacobs. While he's shown his upside many times, including last season's 2,000 scrimmage-yard effort, Jacobs hasn't been so outstanding that he's likely to draw a fresh contract in a new regime against the current era of running backs.
If Jacobs does play, he'll get the Broncos' 31st-ranked rushing defense that's allowed 1.2 TDs per game to the running back position which certainly does bode well for his chances. If he's healthy enough to play and see his usage floor of around 15 touches, he's a good bet. He gets a 49.0% TD probability from our model. meaning his fair price should be +105. Anything longer than that looks like a must-bet.
Tee Higgins
The lone wide receiver of the bunch, Higgins is also the only one who's not *the* #1 at the position for his team, though that's simply because Ja'Marr Chase is not of this world. Higgins is one of the best "WR2" guys in the league and would easily be the #1 on several WR-needy teams. Despite missing four games and catching just 42 receptions, he posted his career-best yards per catch and was just two touchdowns shy of his highest mark.
He's playing in the final year of his deal and was uninterested in negotiating an extension with Cincinnati during the season and reports have circulated throughout the year that the WR is not in the franchise's future plans. Higgins is also questionable to play on Sunday, but we'll see closer to game time.
He also gets the slimmest anytime TD probability out of the players in this article, coming in at just 26.8% according to our model, so you'll want his odds to be at least +270, which is pretty unlikely, although his lines aren't yet available at the time of this writing.
Honorable Mention: Mike Evans
So, Mike Evans doesn't fit all three of our criteria, but if the Bucs lose and miss out on the postseason, then this could be Big Mike's final game with the Bucs. And what a career in Tampa Bay it's been! Evans has recorded a 1,000-receiving-yard season in every single year to start his career, an NFL record. He's a monster, a Super Bowl Champion, and soon to be a free agent.
Whether the Bucs roll into the postseason with an NFC South title again or come up short, Evans gets a 39.5% probability to score against a Panthers team allowing the third-most touchdowns to opposing offenses. You'll want his odds at +150 or better to be fair, and currently, the closest you'll find is +125 on bet365.
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