Five NFL Futures Bets You Need to Make in Week 9

It’s a great time to be an NFL fan and a sports bettor. This season has had no shortage of marquee moments, both good and bad, and the action is still just getting started. We’ve attacked the NFL from every angle this season, with our NFL best bets to find value in underdogs and totals, our best NFL player props which have seen success on Sundays and our best primetime parlay picks.

We're now eight full weeks into the NFL season and the playoff picture is coming into form for both Super Bowl odds and the divisional and conference races. Every week teams see their odds rise and fall based on their results and the results around the league. At Dimers, we thrive in this space with our free sports picks, sifting through our model’s latest probabilities and comparing them to the best odds available, always looking for the best value in a mispriced team.

Check out every best bet in NFL Week 9 here.

Who Will Win the Super Bowl?

Currently, the Philadelphia Eagles are the most likely Super Bowl champion according to our model with a 17.8% probability and their odds set at +600 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The teams with the next highest probabilities are the Kansas City Chiefs at 14.6%  and the San Franciso 49ers who have fallen to 12.8% after three straight losses. No other team has a championship probability over 10%.

Below, you will find five futures bets that currently have value in Week 9. Some may be chalk and some may surprise you but they all have value with our DimersBOT model projecting a higher probability for each than what is implied by the books’ odds.

Before we get started, you should check out our best Sportsbooks page, where you'll find a detailed review of every sportsbook in your state, as well as the best promotional offers currently available.

For example, did you know that at DraftKings, new users who bet $5, will get $200 in Bonus Bets! Just sign up here, deposit and bet at least $5 and instantly get your $200 bonus reward. Plus, you'll get no-sweat bet tokens to use every day for the rest of the season. There's no better way to pad your bankroll this season. You could even choose one of these bets below!

Which NFL Futures Bets Should You Make?

Dallas Cowboys to Win the NFC East | +200 on FanDuel

This surely won't be a popular bet given the Cowboys' reputation of blowing it for the past two decades-plus, but they find themselves in as favorable a situation as possible in regards to winning the division, as does the price on them to do so.

First, let's talk probability. It appeared the Eagles were running away with this one after the Cowboys dropped two games in three weeks to the Cardinals and 49ers, but after Dallas rebounded with two wins after their bye week and the Eagles picked up their first loss to the Jets, things have tightened up. The Eagles get the bigger chance, naturally, at 69.7% while the Cowboys sit at 30.3% Yeah, 0% for the Giants and Commanders combined. Their odds of +200 are almost right in line with our model which says +230 is a fair price. 

The Cowboys play the Eagles this week, with Philadelphia currently 3-point favorites. It's in Philly which will be tough turf for Dallas, but if they can pull out the win, they'll be a half-game back of the Eagles who will enter their bye week, giving Dallas a chance to even up the division when the play the Giants in Week 10. The Eagles then play the Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, while the Cowboys have a run of the Giants, Panthers and Commanders. They then meet again in Week 14, which will be as pivotal a game as they come.

Tennessee Titans to Win the AFC South | +1300 on DraftKings

#TitanUp, Tennesee because Will Levis has arrived! The Titans spent a second-rounder on Will Levis in this past draft after just using a third-round pick to select QB Malik Willis in the year prior. Apparently, everyone in Tennessee had seen about all they could stomach from Willis under center because Mike Vrabel announced Levis would be getting the nod in Week 8 and it was a smashing success.

Levis tossed four touchdowns, committed zero turnovers and took just two sacks. He brought DeAndre Hopkins back to life and gave some much, much-needed juice to an offense that hadn't scored 28 points in two years.

The Titans sit 2.5 games behind the Jaguars who have a bye this week. At a 12.5% probability of winning the AFC South, the Titans' +1300 odds are heavily mispriced according to our model, which says they should be +700 on the dot. The book's odds suggest just a 7.1% chance, showing a notable 5.4% edge in value. The Jaguars come out of their bye against the 49ers, their toughest test, while the Titans have games against the Colts, Texans Panthers and Bucs in the coming weeks, plus a head-to-head shot at Jacksonville in Week 11.

Philadelphia Eagles to Win the NFC | +250 on DraftKings

We told you some of these would be chalk, and this one is. It's also a holdover from the previous edition of this column, but hey, sometimes value sticks around. We don't make the odds, we just bet on them when they make sense.

A rough loss to the Jets saw the Eagles' odds drop slightly as they were +350 when we first pointed out this value, but the NFC's main contenders also went and lost (Lons to the Ravens, 49ers three-straight) and now things have balanced back out. At 31.1%, the Eagles have the highest probability to win the conference, a full 8.1% greater than the 49ers and more than double that of the Cowboys. Even though we just called out the Cowboys as a threat to win the division, the playoffs are a different beast and the Eagles could feasibly find themselves as a Wild Card and still make a strong run. They are our most-likely Super Bowl champion, after all.

Buffalo Bills to win the AFC | +800 on DraftKings

Want to know why this column is so great? We called out the Ravens when they were +1200 as a huge misprice, and now they're +600. This week, it's the Buffalo Bills. The Bills have made an art form out of losing what should be easy games. Their latest display against the Buccaneers yielded a win, but they made it dangerously close, gifting Tampa Bay numerous first downs via penalties on their final drive, before escaping what should have been defensive pass interference on a Hail Mary try to end the game. Nevertheless, they are a talented team and can play with anyone in an AFC that simply doesn't want to have a clear best team.

Every contender has shown flaws, evidenced by the just 5% separation between the Bills at #2 and Jaguars at #5. Currently, our model projects the Bills with a 16.9% probability of winning the AFC, while their odds of +800 imply a mere 8.3% chance, less than half. For further context, two teams with lower probabilities (Dolphins and Ravens) both have shorter odds. No matter how the Bills look, this price is wrong. When, and not if, the Bills make the postseason, these odds will simply not be as good.

Philadelphia Eagles to Win the Super Bowl | +600 on DraftKings

While there are several other teams with value worth a look in the Super Bowl market, particularly the Ravens at an intriguing +1400, the Eagles present the best raw value. At +600, their odds imply a 14.3% probability, while our model suggests their odds should actually be closer to +450 with a probability of 17.8%. That's not a major increase, but for 1-unit bettors, it represents more than a full unit's worth of value. The Eagles are a viable bet in this market for all the reasons mentioned above for their NFC odds, but you get more than double the price for the Super Bowl. For transparency, there are other bets with some value in this market, like the Ravend at +1400 (should be +1200) and the Bills at +150 (should be +1100), but the Eagles show the greatest differential in terms of percentage.

More on the NFL

As well as being your trusted source for NFL pick 'em predictions, Dimers also has the latest NFL news, NFL predictions for every game, weekly NFL best bets, and NFL futures.

Please remember to enjoy gambling responsibly. Responsible gambling means setting limits, staying in control, and understanding that luck is just part of the game. Make informed choices, set a budget, and know when to take a break. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.