Five NFL Futures Bets You Need to Make in Week 7

It’s a great time to be an NFL fan and a sports bettor. This season has had no shortage of marquee moments, both good and bad, and the action is still just getting started. We’ve attacked the NFL from every angle this season, with our NFL best bets to find value in underdogs and totals, our best NFL player props which have seen success on Sundays and our best primetime parlay picks.

Six weeks into the NFL season and the playoff picture is taking shape for both Super Bowl odds and the divisional and conference races. Every week teams see their odds rise and fall based on their results and the results around the league. At Dimers, we thrive in this space with our free sports picks, sifting through our model’s latest probabilities and comparing them to the best odds available, always looking for the best value in a mispriced team.

Check out every best bet in NFL Week 7 here.

Who Will Win the Super Bowl?

Currently, the San Francisco 49ers are the most likely Super Bowl champion according to our model with a 17.6% probability and their odds set at +470 on FanDuel Sportsbook. The teams with the next highest probabilities are the Kansas City Chiefs at 16.0%  and the Philadelphia Eagles at 15.3%. Only one other team has a probability higher than 10%, with the Buffalo Bills at 11.2%.

Below, you will find five futures bets that currently have value in Week 6. Some may be chalk and some may surprise you but they all have value with our DimersBOT model projecting a higher probability for each than what is implied by the books’ odds.

Before we get started, you should check out our best Sportsbooks page, where you'll find a detailed review of every sportsbook in your state, as well as the best promotional offers currently available.

For example, did you know that at Bet365, new users who bet $5, will get $150 in Bonus Bets! Just sign up here, deposit and bet at least $5 and instantly get your $150 bonus reward. There's no better way to pad your bankroll this season. You could even choose one of these bets below!

Which NFL Futures Bets Should You Make?

New Orleans Saints to Win the NFC South | +170 on DraftKings

Is it cheating to go back to a team that was just in this article last week? Maybe, but when the data to back it up is there it's hard to ignore it. The Saints don't exactly inspire confidence with the way they play; failing to score more than 20 points in all but one game this season, a 34-0 blowout over the hapless Patriots. Fortunately, they play in a division that everyone else but the Bucs seems actively trying to lose.

Tampa Bay has as good a chance as any on paper to win this division, however with a 16.7% probability from our model, it's impossible to justify their odds of +220 (should be +500). Meanwhile, the Saints still have a greater than 50% probability from DimersBOT and their odds are +170. Though Tampa Bay currently has the lead and the head-to-head tiebreaker, the Saints won't have to punch above their weight the next few weeks with games against the Jags, Colts, Bears, Vikings and Falcons, giving them ample opportunity to climb the ranks.

Houston Texans to Win the AFC South | +400 on BetMGM

Just last week, we pointed out the value in the Jaguars to win this division at -105, and even this week you can still get a better price on them than our model suggests they should be (-120 with a 63.3% probability). However, if you want a plus-money option to take home the AFC South crown, look to the Houston Texans.

This comes with a caveat; mathematically, their odds should be closer to the +800-900 range based on our model's 10.9% probability, so if you take this bet, it's important to know you aren't getting a truly fair price. But last week our model gave the Texans a 6.8% probability and now they're on the rise. Just one game back from Jacksonville in the division, they also currently own the head-to-head tiebreaker. Furthermore, the Jaguars have a quick turnaround with a Thursday Night Football matchup against the Saints, while the Texans get a week off before they take on the winless Panthers. With backup QBs taking the reins for the Colts and Titans, this at least becomes one to watch.

Philadelphia Eagles to Win the NFC | +350 on FanDuel

Technically the Saints and the Rams are better values in this market, and are probably worth a little sprinkle due to their longshot odds. More so the Rams, whose +6500 odds are way off from our model's fair price of around +2000. However, with the two undefeated squads both going down in Week 6, we've managed to unearth a touch of value in the Eagles, a more realistic bet than LA or New Orleans.

Though they were +300 last week and now +350, our model hasn't shifted its probability much for the Eagles after an ugly loss to the New York Jets. At 24.8%, our model suggests the Eagles would be a fair bet at +300 and we get a touch better price here. It truly looks like a four-team race atop the NFC. It's worth pointing out that they are about to enter their toughest stretch with games against the Dolphins, Cowboys, Chiefs, Bills and 49ers in the coming weeks so while our model still ikes their long-term outlook, a better price could pop up if they drop a couple of those contests. 

Baltimore Ravens to win the AFC | +1200 on DraftKings

We could have titled this section "Anyone over .500 but the Dolphins" because this conference is wide open at the top. Even the 3-3 Bengals are climbing and could be worth a play at +1600, although outside of their decisive Week 5 victory over the Cardinals, they haven't looked themselves, hence their 4.7% probability from our model. But enough about the Bengals, let's talk about their AFC North rivals.

Baltimore gets a 10.0% probability to win the conference according to DimersBOT while their odds of +1200 imply just a 7.7% chance. That 2.3% may not sound like a lot, but it's the difference between +1200 and +900, a substantial difference in profit. Baltimore's chances are the fourth-highest and their defense is holding opposing teams to the fourth-fewest PPG in the league at 15.2. With the Dolphins being the only AFC offense that has lit up the scoreboard, this Ravens flock could be a force for the other contenders come January. And simply put, +1200 is just too good of a price for a 4-2 team.

Buffalo Bills to Win the Super Bowl | +1000 on DraftKings

The value isn't staggering for the Bills, however, our model gives them just under an 11% chance of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy which would make their fair odds closer to +800. As mentioned earlier, the AFC is wide open at the top and the Bills have a path to the No. 1 overall seed and a bye. Homefield advantage in Buffalo would be huge against a warm-weather team like the Dolphins come the postseason. They're a game back of Miami and Kansas City but get a favorable schedule over the next six weeks, taking on New England in Week 7 with home games against the Bucs, Broncos and Jets mixed in. They'll get a head-to-head opportunity against the Chiefs and Dolphins later in the season which could prove pivotal to the AFC race. 

More on the NFL

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