Five NFL Futures Bets You Need to Make in Week 6

It’s a great time to be an NFL fan and a sports bettor. This season has had no shortage of marquee moments, both good and bad, and the action is still just getting started. We’ve attacked the NFL from every angle this season, with our NFL best bets to find value in underdogs and totals, our best NFL player props which have seen success on Sundays and our best primetime parlay picks.

Five weeks into the NFL season and the playoff picture is taking shape for both Super Bowl odds and the divisional and conference races. Every week teams see their odds rise and fall based on their results and the results around the league. At Dimers, we thrive in this space with our free sports picks, sifting through our model’s latest probabilities and comparing them to the best odds available, always looking for the best value in a mispriced team.

Check out every best bet in NFL Week 6 here.

Who Will Win the Super Bowl?

Currently, the San Francisco 49ers are the most likely Super Bowl champion according to our model with a 17.6% probability and their odds set at +470 on FanDuel Sportsbook. The teams with the next highest probabilities are the Kansas City Chiefs at 16.0%  and the Philadelphia Eagles at 15.3%. Only one other team has a probability higher than 10%, with the Buffalo Bills at 11.2%.

Below, you will find five futures bets that currently have value in Week 5. Some may be chalk and some may surprise you but they all have value with our DimersBOT model projecting a higher probability for each than what is implied by the books’ odds.

Before we get started, you should check out our best Sportsbooks page, where you'll find a detailed review of every sportsbook in your state, as well as the best promotional offers currently available.

For example, did you know that at Bet365, new users who bet $5, will get $150 in Bonus Bets! Just sign up here, deposit and bet at least $5 and instantly get your $150 bonus reward. There's no better way to pad your bankroll this season. You could even choose one of these bets below!

Which NFL Futures Bets Should You Make?

New Orleans Saints to Win the NFC South | +175 on DraftKings

The Saints were our preseason pick to win the division, and although they haven’t managed to push towards that significantly, our model still favors New Orleans and you can get even better value on them now than in the preseason. The NFC South was expected to be a tight division and except for the Carolina Panthers, it’s proven to be. The Bucs are the true surprise, currently in first place with a 3-1 record as they come off a Week 5 bye. The Saints share a 3-2 record with the Falcons and have yet to play one another.

This division is wide open and these teams will beat up on one another as the season progresses. We can’t write off the Bucs entirely after such a good start, but our model predicts they will fall off, giving them just a 15.6% chance of securing the NFC South title and they’re only +215. Meanwhile, the Saints get a 53% probability from DimersBOT and their odds are +175. For reference, a 50/50 chance would be +100, so this calculates as a massive 16.4% edge.

Jacksonville Jaguars to Win the AFC South | -105 on DraftKings

This will be the only bet that isn’t plus money, but it’s still a good play based on the odds. A preseason darling, it seemed like the whole football community was enamored with the Jaguars and for good reason. They made impressive offseason moves to bolster their roster, Trevor Lawrence looks like the real deal and they play in a division in which they are clearly the best team, though the Texans might not be too far behind.

It’s those same Texans and an 8-point Week 2 loss to the Chiefs that have kept the Jaguars from a 5-0 start. They looked awful in the game against the Texans, but other than that, they’ve played well and sit in first place with a tiebreaker over the Colts, whom they’ll play again in Week 6. If they leave with a victory, they’ll have at worst a full-game lead in the AFC South. It’s a slim 2% edge, but this is nearly even money and our model projects a 53% probability of the Jags taking the division.

San Francisco 49ers to Win the NFC | +200 on FanDuel

Favored to win the NFC, you’d be surprised to find value in the 49ers to do so. They just thumped the Dallas Cowboys whose defense has been hyped up to no end all season long. It was a statement game to the entire league that the Niners are the best from top to bottom, an absolute juggernaut on a warpath the No. 1 seed. If you look at other books, you’ll find the 49ers are in the +140 to +160 range to win the conference. This will be the last time they’re +200 or better unless they see a major injury.

DimersBOT projects San Francisco with a 32.7% chance to win the NFC, with the Eagles the next most likely winner at 26.1%. The 49ers’ probability is less than 1% off from our model’s projections, illustrating the value of this bet on FanDuel as compared to other sportsbooks.

Buffalo Bills to win the AFC | +550 on FanDuel

For both hardcore fans and sports bettors, the Bills are a frustrating team to watch. They dropped Week 1 to the Jets even with Aaron Rodgers going down early and they sputtered offensively against a Jaguars team that was simply better equipped to play in London this past Sunday. Combined with their playoff exits the last few seasons, it’s clear these Bills have made it a habit of underperforming in big spots but there’s no denying the talent on Buffalo’s roster.

Josh Allen is and will be in the MVP race this year, Stefon Diggs is unquestionably one of the best WRs in the league and even with numerous defensive injuries, their defense is holding opponents to just 16.0 points per game. They took a hit with CB Tre’Davious White, LB Matt Milano and DL Da’Quan Jones all sustaining injuries that will require surgery, with White’s season-ending. However, if the Bills can overcome these injuries, there is immense value in their odds to win the AFC. At a 20.9% probability from our model, you’re getting a 5.5% edge in the odds, which should be closer to +390.

Philadelphia Eagles to Win the Super Bowl | +800 on DraftKings

This one may seem obvious but if it were so, then the value wouldn’t be there. The Eagles have a perfect 5-0 record, as one of just two teams left unbeaten. Despite their success, they’ve not been quite as dominant as last season, keeping several games close against teams that haven’t been good, like Week 1 against the Patriots and a Week 4 OT win over the Commanders. Their offense has looked as good as it ever has though, with the addition of D’Andre Swift giving their run game the extra talent it needed and A.J. Brown a true alpha wide receiver.

Their path to the playoffs is as clear as ever, with a two-game lead in the division and in a tie with the 49ers for the best record and the No. 1 overall seed. The NFC was always realistically a 4-5 team race and it’s starting to whittle down to three or four. Our model gives Philadelphia a 15.3% chance to win the Super Bowl while their +800 odds imply just an 11.1% chance. That 4.2% discrepancy is the difference between +800 and +550. With the Jets on tap in Week 6, the Eagles are staring down 6-0 and these odds will drop.

More on the NFL

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