MLB - More Betting
Five MLB Props We Should Be Allowed To Bet On
Summer is just about here and the NBA and NHL seasons are reaching their climax. And while MLS is certainly having a moment now that Lionel Messi is heading to Inter Miami, betting on baseball and the MLB will be king over the warmer months.
But as a dedicated bettor, in my humble opinion, there’s a problem with betting on baseball - particularly with Same Game Parlays. In comparison to leagues like the NFL and NBA, there simply aren't enough prop markets to bet on, leading to rather mediocre parlay odds.
Sure, betting on home runs is very fun, but it’s also very hard. Trying to parlay multiple home runs in the same game is a difficult challenge that not even the most earnest handicapper could do on a regular basis. Then we have hits, runs scored, RBI, stolen bases and total bases markets for batters, as well as strikeouts and hits allowed markets for pitchers. But we could be doing even more to make a baseball Same Game Parlay more appealing to bettors.
We’ve dreamed up five prop markets that we’d love to see added by the sportsbooks.
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Five MLB Props Sportsbooks Should Add
Fielder Catches Over/Under
Not just anyone can play in the outfield in the MLB. It takes speed, strength and a high baseball IQ. So, why aren't we allowed to bet on the amount of catches an outfielder makes in a game?
These stats exist, of course; although from what I can find, the MLB Statcast heavily qualifies what constitutes a catch by balls that have less than a 90% chance of being caught. But still, this should be something that we can bet on. There are a ton of intricacies that would delight those bettors that like to deep dive into research to find an edge on the ‘books, including the outfielder’s position and skillset, as well as a batter and their hitting tendencies.
Hitter Strikes Taken Over/Under
How are we not already betting on this? Every batter is different when they step up to the plate, all with their own unique abilities. Some batters like to swing and get the ball in play early in the count, while others are more patient, waiting for the right moment. Imagine a world where we could bet on the over/under for the amount of strikes a batter sees in accumulation during a game.
Over/Under Longest Home Run Distance
It doesn't even make sense that this isn't already an existing prop market. We can bet on home runs per player, who will hit the first one, why not the distance too? It would constantly be different, as every park is unique with varying wall distances, and the power tendencies of a particular lineup would also be a major factor. Home runs are super fun to bet on, but with this, we would have a more approachable market.
Even better, if there were no home runs hit in the game, the bet would likely settle as a push, giving you an out if the bats struggle to launch one.
Pitcher Home Runs Allowed
Sportsbooks already allow bettors to wager on the amount of hits a starting pitcher will give up during a game, so why not home runs? When it comes to betting on home runs, the pitcher on the mound is a huge factor, with some aces giving up a whole lot more long balls than others. We already use this data when researching our home run picks; this market should be a natural addition for the ‘books
Will There Be a Double/Triple Play?
Teams pride themselves on their ability to turn double and triple plays and it should be something that we can bet on. The Orioles currently lead the MLB with an average of one double play per game with another four teams all hovering around that mark. The Phillies rank 30th with a double play one out of every two games.
What kind of odds could we get with the sportsbooks for this? With data from the 2021 MLB season, a double play happened in around 78% of games, meaning that we could probably expect odds of around -350 for a double play to occur, and +350 for a double play to not occur in a game.
Triple plays are much rarer, only happening four times out of 2,430 games in 2021, meaning that fair odds for this happening would be around 600/1. Given the low probability and extreme possible payout to bettors, it’s unlikely that a book would ever offer this market, but it’s nice to dream.
Did we miss anything? Let us know the MLB prop markets that you think the sportsbooks should add on Twitter.
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