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Farmers Insurance Open Predictions: Our Best Bets for PGA TOUR Betting at Torrey Pines
The PGA TOUR continues as The Farmers Insurance Open returns to Torrey Pines Golf Course in La Jolla, CA. We're back with our Dimers predictions that correctly picked a +2800 winner last weekend.

The 2025 PGA TOUR season continues at The Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines Golf Course in La Jolla, California. This week's tournament runs from Wednesday, January 22 through Saturday, January 25 to avoid clashing with the NFL Playoffs on Sunday.
Fresh off identifying Sepp Straka as a +2800 winner ahead of Round 2 at The American Express this past weekend, our predictive analytics model has run 1000s of simulations with the field in this tournament, identifying intriguing bets in the winner and placement markets. Our best bets are here to help with outright winner plays, as well as recommended Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 picks.
Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season long, where we'll be feeding you our trusted PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are sourced from our powerful Dimers Pro predictive analytics model that pulled off some big wins in 2024and is off to a productive start this year.
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Who Will Win the 2025 Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines?
Here are the five most likely winners of this week's Farmers Insurance Open, the result of simulating the tournament 10,000 times via our A.I. models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5/10/20:
GOLFER | WIN | TOP 5 | TOP 10 | TOP 20 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Hideki Matsuyama | 9.0% | 28.9% | 43.0% | 60.3% |
Ludvig Aberg | 7.8% | 26.4% | 39.9% | 57.4% |
Sungjae Im | 5.1% | 19.6% | 32.7% | 49.3% |
Max Greyserman | 4.5% | 17.8% | 29.7% | 47.1% |
Shane Lowry | 4.1% | 15.7% | 28.8% | 45.0% |
Farmers Insurance Open Golf Betting Preview
We're golfing on a Wednesday! This tournament takes place at the 36-hole Torrey Pines, featuring two courses, appropriately named North and South. The full field will compete over both courses in Rounds 1 and 2 before those who make the cut finish off the weekend with two rounds on the South course.
The North course is a Par 72 that runs 7,258 yards while the South is notably longer at 7,765 yards, though also a Par 72. Weather conditions look favorable throughout the week, with a chance for rain on Saturday.
A $9,300,000 purse is on the line, as well as 500 FedExCup points. The reigning champ here is Frenchman Matthieu Pavon, who finished T48 at The Sentry, his only previous event in 2025.
MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings
Best Bets to Win the 2025 Farmers Insurance Open
Hideki Matsuyama (+1100 on BetMGM)
Our first best bet is on Japanese golfer Hideki Matsuyama to continue his hot start with his second win in three events.
Matsuyama took home first place at The Sentry before finishing T16 last weekend. He's made eight straight cuts at this event and has finished T13 and T9 in the past two years. Tee-to-green success will be important this week and he's been among the best in that area so far.
With Matsuyama (+1100) our most-likely winner, our model differs just slightly on the favorite for this tournament, with the books favoring Ludvig Aberg at +1000. At 9.0%, fair odds for Matsuyama would be +1000, giving us a little edge on a golfer off to a great start in 2025.
Shane Lowry (+3500 on FanDuel)
Our best value play to win the Farmers Insurance Open is on Shane Lowry.
The Irishman will be making his 2025 TOUR debut at this event where he finished T25 last year, highlighted by his incredible Albatross on the par-5 sixth hole on Sunday.
Unsurprisingly, Lowry was a Top-20 golfer in Approach last year and will lean on that in his return to Torrey Pines and when the best of the best are absent form the field, Lowry has as high of a ceiling as any other golfer projected in the Top 10.
At a 4.1% win probability, Lowry gets fair odds of about +2350 from DimersBOT, giving us significant value with his best odds of +3500 on offer at FanDuel.
Furthermore, you can get an edge in Lowry's Top 20 (+165), Top 10 (+360) and Top 5 (+750) markets, so consider sprinkling about 1 unit across a ladder play.
Best Top 20 Bets for the 2025 Farmers Insurance Open
In addition to the outright winner picks with value, we've got a few placement bets to consider for this week's Farmers Insurance Open as well. As well as being value plays as single wagers, consider playing these in a parlay to potentially rack up some serious profits.
Max Greyserman to Finish Top 20 (+140 on DraftKings)
The 29-year old Duke alumni was one of our sneaky picks to win last week at The American Express, with a 3.9% probability against +3300 odds. He was in contention all weekend, ultimately finishing T7.
This week, we project him at nearly 50% to finish Top 20, 47.1% to be exact, while he gets odd of +140, implying just a 41.7% chance. He finished T24 at The Sentry earlier this season, picking up where he left off last year with six Top 20s over his last 8 events.
Taylor Pendrith to Finish Top 20 (+175 on DraftKings)
Our second Top 20 pick is on Canadian golfer Taylor Pendrith. He opened the year with a T13 at The Sentry before following it up with a disappointing T45 at the Sony Open.
Last season, he finished T9 at the Farmers Insurance Open and netted five Top 20 finishes, including three Top 10s and two Top 5s, over his final six events.
He gets a 44.9% probability to finish Top 20 this week from our model, the sixth-highest out of this whole field, and at great odds of +175, with our fair odds closer to +120.
Aaron Rai to Finish Top 20 (+225 on DraftKings)
We're riding with Englishman Aaron Rai to secure his second Top 20 finish of the young season for our next pick.
Rai's played one event, The Sentry, and finished T15. His last season was a mixed bag, but he ultimately carded 11 top 20 finishes, highlighted by a mid-season run of five in a row. He finished inside the Top 5 four times, including a win at the Wyndham Championship.
With a 37.9% probability from our model, we identify fair odds of +165, while we can get Rai at +225 to finish Top 20.
Justin Lower to Finish Top 20 (+350 on DraftKings)
Our final Top 20 play is on one of last week's surprise contenders at The American Express, Justin Lower.
He had a modest start with a T37 at the Sony Open before surging into contention this past weekend, finishing T3 overall.
Last season, Lower had five Top 20s, and they all happened to be Top 10s as well. He's on the longer end of our model's Top 20 predictions (he's 20th) but he's got a nice value. At 29.4%, our fair odds would be +240, while you can get him at +350.
These aren't the only value plays on the board, but our selected ones based on our model's recommendations. Check out our full predictions for the Farmers Insurance Open to find your favorite plays, with more edges to be found throughout the tournament!
Dimers' Expert Golf Picks and Predictions for 2025 PGA TOUR
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