Fade or Follow? The Most Popular Prop Bets on BetMGM Sportsbook for NFL Sunday

The AFC and NFC Championship games are upon us as just 120 minutes of football will decide who punches their tickets to Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas.  The Kansas City Chiefs hit the road to face the Baltimore Ravens while the San Francisco 49ers play host to the Detroit Lions. The stakes are running high, and while the NFL is already an incredibly popular sport to bet on, and it only gets bigger as we get deeper into the playoffs and closer to the Big Game.

With that in mind, it’s important to know that with so much money coming into the books, you may see odds fluctuate more frequently than usual, and a lot more money coming in on household names. The more removed from regular sports betting a fan is, the more likely they are to invest in those big names which could lead to several things.

You may not be getting a fair price because the books need to mitigate their losses when they see big action for starters, and it can be tempting to throw some money down on those popular bets you may see floating around social media or popping off in your betting group chats.

Enter Dimers, where you can use the power of our cutting-edge predictive analytics models to identify whether or not these popular plays are in fact, smart plays. We use these models to power our tools from our best NFL bets, to our top player props and Super Bowl LVIII odds. Below, you’ll find most-bet props over at BetMGM Sportsbook for Chiefs vs. Ravens and Lions vs. 49ers.

If you are going to bet on any of these props, make sure you don’t do so without first claiming a lucrative $158 sign-up bonus from BetMGM. Your first $5 bet will secure $158 in bonuses for you to use on anything you’d like. Hit the offer below to take advantage today!

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Most Popular Chiefs vs. Ravens Props

Remember how we said the household names draw the money in the big games? It’s all Lamar Jackson in the AFC Championship, as household of a name as they come.

Most bet (tickets) props Ravens-Chiefs at @BetMGM

Lamar to score anytime touchdown (+100)

Lamar to score 1st touchdown (+600)

Lamar over 65.5 rushing yards (-120) pic.twitter.com/NRdsiLynIL

— John Ewing (@johnewing) January 27, 2024

Lamar Jackson Anytime TD (+100)

Surprised? The most popular prop in the AFC Championship is Lamar Jackson to score a touchdown in this game. He picked up a pair last week against Houston and had five in the regular season. DimersBOT had originally projected Lamar for a very strong chance to score earlier in the week, but since then Mark Andrews has been cleared to play, changing things a good bit. We now project Lamar with a 41% TD probability, making the fair odds for him to score closer to +140.

Lamar Jackson First TD (+600)

This is awkward! When Lamar popped up in our projections earlier this week with a massive 24% probability to score the first TD, we pounced on it for our TD parlay. The +600 odds offered a 10% edge in value, making it a must-bet. Now that TE Mark Andrews is back, that changes things and now Lamar sits at 10% probability to score first. That would make our fair odds +900, so if you’ve got a profit boost to use, you can get him up to those more favorable odds.

Lamar Jackson Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

It’s not personal, Lamar, we swear. DimersBOT is simply not projecting a bombastic game from the dynamic QB, at least not in the running game, given his deflated TD probability and our model’s rushing yards projection of 59 yards. That’s a slight tick up from earlier in the week, however it’s cutting it a little close to recommend betting the over, especially when our model is more strongly favoring a plus-money opportunity on Lamar’s passing yards prop.

🏈 Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens

Most Popular Lions vs. 49ers Props

Most bet (tickets) props 49ers-Lions at @BetMGM

Jahmyr Gibbs to score anytime TD (+125)

Christian McCaffrey to score 1st TD (+325)

George Kittle over 60.5 receiving yards (-115)

Brandon Aiyuk over 75.5 receiving yards (-115)

Brock Purdy over 280.5 passing yards (-115) pic.twitter.com/MPoRmk99Mp

— John Ewing (@johnewing) January 27, 2024

Now here’s some variety if that’s what you’re looking for (and at least a couple of props we love).

Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime TD (+125)

This prop is about as perfectly priced as they can get. DimersBOT says Gibbs has a44.4% probability to score, the highest for a Lions player. The odds imply a 44.44% chance. The consensus? Gibbs is very good and has a strong chance to score in this one, but the books know it and won’t give you a better value, although this is perfectly fine to take at these odds.

Christian McCaffrey First TD (+325)

We’re more partial to Christian McCaffrey scoring a pair of touchdowns at +160 with a 47% probability but that’s not the prop here. CMC gets a very strong 19.8% probability to score first in the NFC Championship, but that means we’d like the odds to be +400 or better. +325 suggest a 23.5% probability which isn’t far off, but it’s not our target range.

George Kittle Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

It’s no surprise to see Mr. Tight End University himself as one of the most popular bets of the weekend. Kittle is one of our favorite players to watch and bet on, with his YAC ability boding well for his overs in most games. He gets a little love from DimersBOT in this game but it sure projects to be close. Kittle gets a 62-yard projection, clearing this mark ever so slightly.

Brandon Aiyuk Over 75.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

If Deebo Samuel operates as nothing more than a decoy in this game (wouldn’t be the first time), then this kind of goes out the window, but after he was cleared, we’re operating as if he’ll play his usual role. That means Brandon Aiyuk’s role as the alpha WR1 may take a hit, with our model projecting him for 73 receiving yards. It’s worth noting however, that his line is set at 79.5 on FanDuel, so if you’re taking the under, you can get yourself four extra yards and a better price (-110), further illustrating the importance for multiple sportsbooks.

Brock Purdy Over 280.5 Passing Yards (-115)

We finish off with the most-supported popular prop of the weekend according to our model. Brock Purdy gets a beefy 310-yard projection from our model, with virtually every one of his receiving weapons from George Kittle to Christian McCaffrey out of the backfield able to break a huge play and pick up those YAC. Purdy’s over looks like the clear play, with his 300+ yards worth a look for wherever you can find the best odds (+125 on BetMGM now).

🏈 Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers

For more NFC and AFC Championship insights, check out our resources below:

- Dimers’ AFC Championship Betting Trends

- Dimers’ NFC Championship Betting Trends

- Dimers’ Best NFL Props - Conference Championships

- Dimers’ Best Super Bowl Odds

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