Experts Update Tommy Paul vs. Roberto Carballes Baena Prediction After Wild Scenes in 2nd Round

The 2025 Australian Open continues to deliver dramatic twists, and Tommy Paul’s second-round match against Kei Nishikori was no exception. I had the opportunity to watch courtside as Paul overcame a tough start to secure a commanding four-set victory, leaving analysts and oddsmakers scrambling to reassess his chances in the next round against Roberto Carballes Baena.

A Rain-Delayed Thriller:

The match began with Paul struggling to find his rhythm after a lengthy rain delay. Nishikori, buoyed by enthusiastic Japanese fans, seized the momentum and claimed the first set in a tense 7-6 tiebreaker. 

Tommy Paul and Kei Nishikori's Australian Open match was delayed for hours due to rain.

However, the rain delay’s effects seemed to fade as Paul adjusted brilliantly. The American dominated the next three sets with aggressive baseline play and a relentless serve, cruising to a 6-7, 6-0, 6-3, 6-1 win.

Updated Tommy Paul vs. Roberto Carballes Baena Predictions:

Following Paul’s strong finish against Nishikori, the analysts at Dimers ran updated simulations for his third-round match against Carballes Baena. The numbers paint a decisive picture, particularly in the context of new odds from Bet365:

• Moneyline Win Probability:

  • Tommy Paul: 80% (Bet365 odds: -833)

  • Roberto Carballes Baena: 20% (Bet365 odds: +500)

• First Set Win Probability:

  • Tommy Paul: 71% (Bet365 odds: -357)

  • Roberto Carballes Baena: 29% (Bet365 odds: +275)

These revised predictions underscore Paul’s growing confidence and form as the tournament progresses.

Wild Scenes and Impact on Betting Markets:

What struck me most during Paul’s match was how the crowd’s energy seemed to galvanize him. Nishikori’s fans brought passion and volume, but by the third set, it felt like Paul was feeding off that intensity, using it to fuel his dominant performance.

Kei Nishikori struggles in the third set against Tommy Paul at the 2025 Australian Open.

Oddsmakers have taken note, with Bet365 adjusting their lines accordingly. Initially, the betting market might have undervalued Paul, but his ability to recover from early adversity has significantly shifted perceptions.

Carballes Baena’s Chances:

While Carballes Baena’s odds reflect his status as the underdog, the Spaniard shouldn’t be entirely discounted. His defensive consistency and ability to extend rallies could pose challenges for Paul if the American starts slowly. Still, with an 80% predicted win probability, it’s clear that analysts believe Paul holds the upper hand.

Conclusion:

After witnessing Paul’s resilience and dominance firsthand, I can understand why the experts have updated their predictions so decisively in his favor. While Carballes Baena is a solid competitor, it’s hard to argue against the numbers and Paul’s growing momentum. Tennis fans should expect an exciting match—but one that favors the American.