Experts Release WM Phoenix Open Predictions with Scottie Scheffler Leading the Pack

The 2025 WM Phoenix Open tees off on Thursday, February 6, at TPC Scottsdale, bringing one of the most electric atmospheres in golf back to the PGA TOUR. Known for its raucous crowds—especially at the famed par-3 16th hole—this event will feature a strong field vying for a $9.2 million prize purse.

Scottie Scheffler headlines the tournament, coming off a solid showing at Pebble Beach, where he led the field in strokes gained approach. After missing the start of the season due to a hand injury, Scheffler’s return has been closely watched. His sharp ball-striking last week suggests he's fully recovered, making him a clear favorite to contend in Phoenix.

The field also includes several players battling injuries. Jordan Spieth (wrist), Hideki Matsuyama (back), and Sepp Straka (illness) are all probable to compete, while Max Greyserman (hand) remains questionable. Their form and recovery will be key storylines heading into the event.

With health concerns playing a role and an elite field assembled, Dimers’ analysts have kicked off their Phoenix Open predictions. Current simulations highlight Scheffler as the top contender, while factoring in how injuries could impact the leaderboard.

WM Phoenix Open Betting Preview

Check out all the important details on this week’s tournament, as well as the latest odds sourced from Bet365.

Tournament Details

Key information on the 2025 WM Phoenix Open, including the course and schedule.

• Event: 2025 Waste Management Phoenix Open
• Dates: Thursday, February 6 – Sunday, February 9, 2025
• Course: TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)
• PGA TOUR standings: Current FedExCup standings
• World Golf Rankings: Our golf rankings that include PGA and LIV players

Odds

Odds for the top favorites in the 2025 WM Phoenix Open.

• Scottie Scheffler: +300
• Justin Thomas: +1300
• Hideki Matsuyama: +1700
• Sungjae Im: +2400
• Sam Burns: +2400

The Bet365 odds and lines presented in this article at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Expert Prediction: WM Phoenix Open

Using cutting-edge data analysis and advanced simulations, the experts at Dimers have run 10,000 simulations of this week’s WM Phoenix Open.

According to Dimers’ predictive analytics model, Scottie Scheffler is the clear favorite to win at TPC Scottsdale, with a 28.5% chance of claiming his third Phoenix Open title after winning in 2022 and 2023. Justin Thomas (5.0%) and Sungjae Im (4.0%) round out the top three most likely winners based on current projections.

When it comes to a top-10 finish, Scheffler remains dominant with a 71.3% chance, while Justin Thomas (31.6%) and Hideki Matsuyama (30.5%) are also strong contenders. Matsuyama, a past champion at this event in 2016 and 2017, has historically performed well in Scottsdale and could be a key player to watch.

These predictions and probabilities are accurate at the time of publication but are subject to change.

WM Phoenix Open Best Bets

Our top pick for this week’s WM Phoenix Open is to bet on Scottie Scheffler to win outright at +300. With a win probability of 28.5%, this gives an edge of 3.5%, making Scheffler the standout play among the favorites as he seeks his third victory at TPC Scottsdale in the last four years.

For a placement bet, Billy Horschel at +200 for a top-20 finish presents solid value. With a 35.5% probability, this equates to an edge of 2.2%. Horschel’s consistent track record at TPC Scottsdale—making the cut in 10 straight appearances and securing two top-10 finishes in the last five years—further strengthens his case as a smart placement bet.

This betting advice is based on detailed modeling and wagering intelligence to help you make more informed investments.

Conclusion

With injuries and illnesses affecting several big names, the 2025 WM Phoenix Open promises to be a fascinating test of resilience and form. Scottie Scheffler enters as the tournament favorite, looking to secure his third title at TPC Scottsdale, but questions remain about how his hand injury might impact his game.

Jordan Spieth (wrist) and Hideki Matsuyama (back) are expected to compete despite their respective setbacks, while Sepp Straka and Max Greyserman’s recent health concerns could affect their performances.

Despite these uncertainties, Dimers’ predictions highlight Scheffler as the top pick to contend for the title, with value opportunities like Billy Horschel adding intrigue for bettors. As the tournament unfolds, the performance of these key players will likely shape the narrative at one of golf’s most energetic events. Stay tuned for updates and insights throughout the week.