Experts Release Updated Pebble Beach PGA Predictions Following Confirmation of Tee Times

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Written by Ryan Leaver

Our updated look at this week's PGA event after tee times have been confirmed.

Justin Thomas 2025.
Justin Thomas is the third most likely winner of the 2025 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

The 2025 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is set to begin tomorrow, with some of the world’s best golfers teeing off across two iconic courses—Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill Golf Course. As a PGA TOUR Signature Event, the tournament carries a $20 million purse and plenty of intrigue as players prepare for the first round. 

With the field split between Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill for the first two rounds, the tee draw has become a major talking point. Early start times could mean cooler temperatures and softer greens, while later tee times may face shifting coastal winds. 


Scottie Scheffler (12:01 p.m. ET), Rory McIlroy (11:48 a.m. ET), and Justin Thomas (12:27 p.m. ET) will all begin their campaigns on Spyglass Hill’s 10th tee, setting up an exciting afternoon wave featuring some of the tournament’s biggest names. 

The format sees players rotate between the two courses before all weekend rounds are played at Pebble Beach.

This article is an update on yesterday’s expert preview, which broke down the tournament field, odds, and initial predictions. Now, with confirmed tee times, our updated analysis factors in course conditions and player schedules to refine the best betting picks.

Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Preview

Check out all the important details on this week’s tournament, as well as the latest odds sourced from Bet365.

Tournament Details

Key information on the 2025 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, including the courses and tee times.

Odds

Odds for the top favorites in the 2025 Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

  • Scottie Scheffler: +500
  • Rory McIlroy: +1300
  • Collin Morikawa: +1500
  • Justin Thomas: +1500
  • Patrick Cantlay: +1700

Whilst the top four favorites with Bet365 have remained the same since yesterday, Patrick Cantlay has come into +1700, with Ludvig Aberg drifting to +2200.


Pebble Beach Tee Times

Here, we take a look at the tee times of some of the key players competing in the tournament this week, with the 10th tee starters on Spyglass Hill looking the most exciting at this stage:

Pebble Beach Golf Links

1st tee

  • 1:19 p.m.: Tony Finau, Max Homa
  • 1:32 p.m.: Viktor Hovland, Rickie Fowler

10th tee

  • 12:53 p.m.: Robert MacIntyre, Patrick Cantlay
  • 1:06 p.m.: Shane Lowry, Aaron Rai

Spyglass Hill

1st tee

  • 12:14 p.m.: Matthew Fitzpatrick, Cameron Young
  • 1:32 p.m.: Min Woo Lee, Rasmus Hojgaard

10th tee

  • 11:35 a.m.: Tom Kim, Collin Morikawa
  • 11:48 a.m.: Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg
  • 12:01 p.m.: Scottie Scheffler, Brian Harman
  • 12:27 p.m.: Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth

All times listed listed are ET.

Updated Pebble Beach Predictions and Best Bets

Using cutting-edge data analysis and advanced simulations, the experts at Dimers have re-run 10,000 simulations of this week’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am, now factoring in confirmed tee times and course conditions.

Scottie Scheffler remains the clear favorite to win at Pebble Beach, holding steady with a 25.0% win probability. However, Collin Morikawa (6.6%) has edged past Rory McIlroy into second place, showing a slight increase in his chances. Meanwhile, Justin Thomas (4.0%) now rounds out the top three, replacing McIlroy, who has dropped slightly in the projections.

For a top 10 finish, Scheffler’s chances have risen slightly to 70.5%, while Morikawa has also seen a small uptick to 41.4%. Thomas has entered the conversation in this category as well, now projected at 30.1% to finish inside the top 10.

When it comes to wagering on the result, Scottie Scheffler remains the top outright bet at +500, continuing to present an edge with a 25.0% win probability. Adam Scott also still offers strong value, with an 8.5% edge on a top 10 finish at +475 and a worthwhile longshot play at +8500 to win.

These predictions and probabilities are accurate at the time of publication but are subject to change as the tournament progresses.

Conclusion

With the 2025 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am set to begin tomorrow, confirmed tee times have reshaped expectations. The split between Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill will create varying conditions, with early starters likely seeing softer greens and later groups facing stronger coastal winds.

Scottie Scheffler remains the clear favorite at +500 with a 25.0% win probability, while Collin Morikawa has edged into second place ahead of Rory McIlroy. Justin Thomas has also climbed into the top three, reflecting his strong positioning ahead of Round 1.

Scheffler continues to offer the best outright value, while Adam Scott remains a strong longshot for a top 10 finish or outright win. With key players like Scheffler, McIlroy, and Thomas set for a stacked afternoon wave at Spyglass Hill, all eyes will be on their performance as the tournament gets underway.

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Written by
Ryan Leaver
Senior Sports and Betting Editor

Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.

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