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European Soccer 2021/22 Picks and Predictions Week Ending May 8
It's time for another European adventure, with Prospector Sam providing picks for four of the biggest soccer leagues in the world.
FUCK. SPAIN. Yeah, if you came here for some clever intro with interesting word play and top of the line humor (which I know you obviously expect from me at this point), turn off your TV now. I try my best to be fairly impartial about leagues and where I find my value, but fuck if I know what the hell is going on in that godforsaken country on the Iberian Peninsula. They eat dinner in the middle of the night, take siestas like it’s a totally normal thing to do, and, apparently, their soccer teams haven’t got a goddamn clue what they’re doing.
To provide a little more context, I put out a pretty hefty amount of plays between my articles and twitter, and I can confidently say that I’d be a very rich man over the last couple of weeks betting if it weren’t for La Liga. But, while I pick spots that seem to make a hell of a lot of sense, big teams, playing mediocre sides with no motivation, keep completely collapsing out of absolutely nowhere. And we’re not talking boring bets you’d see from every capper like Real or Barcelona to win (though right now, I’d prefer boring). We’re talking good value on teams fighting for European spots who inexplicably can’t find a goal against some twelfth placed no name club who comes out looking like they ate magic paella right before kickoff.
So, to you Spain, I say “fuck you.” Sure, I could blame myself and my failures as a handicapper but that would require me to take responsibility and I don’t really want to do that. Instead, I propose we blow them straight to Mars with Elon and see if they can’t figure their shit out somewhere else. Until then, no more Spanish soccer for me (I say that with absolute confidence I will bet La Liga within 48 hours of writing this).
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🇫🇷 Brest vs. Strasbourg: Saturday May 7, 11 AM EST
This week’s picks are going to have a bit of a theme, which was entirely unintentional but also reflects how I look at my soccer gambling. While Money Line’s and results are an obvious choice for gamblers, I tend to focus on goal scoring because it takes away the risk of unexpected outcomes. If I think a team is going to win, I prefer to take Team Total over 1.5 when the odds are better than the Money Line UNLESS I think a 1-0 result is likely. As for this game, let’s go and put our money on Strasbourg ML…. just joking, we’re obviously going with TT Over 1.5 at -111 (see how funny I am). Brest are in no man’s land with nothing left to play for, while the visitors are on the cusp of European soccer and need a win here badly to make it. Strasbourg’s offensive record isn’t spectacular, but they find the net fairly well and Brest aren’t great on the defensive end (there’s probably a joke to be made about “defenseless Brests,” but I’ma cartoon of high culture and wont stoop to that level). I expect Strasbourg to handle this game to keep pressure on Nice for the 5th spot in Ligue 1, and Over 1.5 should be a fairly comfortable hurdle to get over.
⛏️ PICK: Strasbourg Team Total OVER 1.5 (-111, 1.5U)
🇩🇰 Brondy vs. Copenhagen: Sunday May 8, 10 AM EST
Well, after all of my talk about Denmark being great to us and my ability to find winners in odd places, the Danes came out last week and made me look like a god damn moron. That Midtjylland-Copenhagen 0-0 draw was painful in all sorts of ways, and it definitely wasn’t my proudest moment as a capper. But hey, no use crying over spilt milk and our record with the viking descendents is strong enough to go back and bet them again confidently. And, here, we have an absolute bargain on Copenhagen to score 2+. The books are pricing that at +106, which is fucking astounding to me considering how well Copenhagen score. Add in that Brondby have fallen flat in the Championship Group (effectively ending their season) and the fact that Copenhagen beat them 2-0 less than a month ago, and this feels like incredible value. The visitors need a win to keep space between them and Midtjylland, and I expect they handle this match comfortably. I’ll be betting this one heavily.
⛏️ PICK: Copenhagen Team Total OVER 1.5 (+106, 2.5U)
🇮🇹 Verona vs. AC Milan: Sunday May 8, 2:45 PM EST
Last but not least on our sightseeing tour of team totals, we have AC Milan. This one, quite frankly, doesn’t take a lot of mental gymnastics to figure out but I’ll walk you through it anyway. AC Milan sit two points ahead of Inter with three matches left for the Serie A Title, and Verona, while still holding an outside chance of European spots, couldn’t stop a small blaze with a fire hose. Milan aren’t proficient in front of net to say the least, but Verona don’t keep many clean sheets and they score well enough that the visitors will likely need 2 to win this game. I think they manage that feat, and keep pace in the fight for the league trophy with the bitter rivals. Don’t overthink this one, just take a solid swing with the price at a fairly generous -136.
⛏️ PICK: AC Milan Team Total OVER 1.5 (-136, 1.5U)
🇪🇸 Atletico vs. Real Madrid: Sunday May 8, 3 PM EST
Well, I warned you Spain would draw me back in… This game is interesting for so many reasons, it’s hard to know where to begin. Real are coming off a La Liga title and a miracle comeback against City to reach the UCL Final in the last 7 days, while Atletico’s only headline in that time has been a petulant decision not to give their rivals an honor guard for winning the trophy this weekend. Normally, given the circumstances, you’d expect Real to trot out a very weak team (and they likely will rotate the squad some), but this game is certainly not meaningless and I wouldn’t be shocked to see more than a few cards. As for our bet, I’m taking both teams to score. Atletico are still dangerously close to 5th placed Betis and will come out swinging to try to take advantage of the 120 minutes Real played on Wednesday. As for Real, they simply have too much quality (even on their bench) to be outmatched and they should find more than a few chances against an uncharacteristically poor Athletico defense. I expect this game to be exciting in a variety of ways from start to finish, and -142 is a decent price for that assumption on both to find the net once. Throw in some card bets as well if you’re into that sort of thing.
⛏️ PICK: Both Teams to Score - YES (-142, 1.5U)
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