European Soccer 2021/22 Picks and Predictions Week Ending May 15

It's time for another European adventure, with Prospector Sam providing picks for four of the biggest soccer leagues in the world.

Much like the fable of Icarus, I got a little too confident in myself and it came back to bite me in the ass (yeah, I’m super learned. Don’t act so surprised). Specifically, I started talking up my prowess in handicapping the Danish Superliga a couple weeks ago, and ever since I’ve been absolutely awful on those bets. My reads have been spotty, and I’ve lost some hefty picks on “value” that never quite panned out.

Now, this recent slide isn’t necessarily surprising or even something to be ashamed of. Gambling is an exercise in probability, and my extremely hot run in Denmark was eventually going to regress towards the mean. But, as anyone in this business can tell you, giving out picks can be a humbling endeavor and even the best of the best have tough days (or even weeks). One of the most important skills to learn, because of the up and down nature of the business, is to stay even keel. Enjoy the good times when you’re in them, but prepare for the bad times because they can (and absolutely will) come and knock you right back down.

None of that is really all that relevant to any of you, since the bottom line is all that matters in the long run. But, as someone trying to build trust with my readers, I think it’s important for you to have insight into my thought process and what I’m doing to try to get better. Here, the lesson is that I can never get complacent and I’m always working to get better so we can win more money. I can’t promise that on any given day, but we’ve all made some profit together over the last year and a half and I like to think we’ve got a bright future ahead of us.

With that, let’s gamble.

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🇫🇷 St Etienne vs. Reims: Saturday May 14, 3 PM EST

You might be wondering “why in the love of fuck are we betting on this game on the second to last weekend of the season?” It’s a fair question, since this is a match very few people want to watch. Unfortunately, as we near the end of the campaign, there are a lot of Leagues where teams just have nothing to play for. Titles have already been won, clubs have been relegated, and there aren’t a lot of meaningful battles across the European slate. Basically, I had to be very selective and pickings were slim; but that doesn’t mean we can’t find value, and I like both teams to score here a lot. The price doesn’t smack you in the face at -132, but St Etienne have been scoring well as they fight for safety while remaining completely incapable of keeping a clean sheet. Reims don’t have much to play for at all and would probably be more than happy to cut out early for a summer break, but the quality of the home side (or lack thereof) on the defensive end should be enough to find them a goal and St Etienne will find one as they fight for their lives. You probably won’t watch, but the price is right.

⛏️ PICK: Both Teams to Score - YES (-132, 1U)

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🇧🇪 Genk vs. Gent: Sunday May 15, 10 AM EST

Well wouldja look what we have here…. Two basically identical teams as far name and color, who probably exist because some faction from Gent decided to secede back in the 1300s but wasn’t all that clever so this is the best they could come up with (that story is entirely made up in my head, but I’m going to choose to believe it’s true). As for the game itself, goals are a VERY comfortable expectation. While these two played to an ugly 1-0 result a few weeks ago, both have found their scoring form since and average a combined 4 scored per game over the Conference League section of the season. Their numbers for the year as a whole reflect the same trend, with each averaging well over a goal and a half per game. Gent are the slightly better side and their defense is likely the biggest concern for our bet, but this game should play open both because it’s the style of play for these teams and because Genk have to push for 3 points if they want any chance of European soccer. It’s not a particularly sophisticated write up or analysis, but sometimes the simplest answer is the best one. Bet this bad boy heavy at just -132.

⛏️ PICK: Over 2.5 goals (-132, 2U)

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🇮🇹 Cagliari vs. Inter: Sunday May 15, 2:45 PM EST

A game that matters! Rejoice! Sadly, I’m gonna go ahead and ruin all of your fun by making a bit of an odd choice here, but it’s a bet I really like so I have no problems with doing that. I’m taking Inter to keep a clean sheet at +142. That number doesn’t make a hell of a lot of sense to me when you look at the stats, and I think the value is tremendous, which is why I’m going with this pick bet instead of a more traditional route. Inter are still fighting for the Serie A Title and average less than a goal conceded per game, which is enough to give some confidence in our bet. While Cagliari won’t be a dead fish considering they’re fighting relegation, they also average less than a goal scored per game and should be completely outclassed here. The biggest concern is honestly that Inter make things ugly and they let a goal slide by because the 3 points are already safe, but overall this price is too good to pass up for me. Sweating this one out probably won’t be fun, but the play is right.

-⛏️ PICK: Cagliari Team Total Under 0.5 (+142, 1.5U)

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