European Soccer 2021/22 Picks and Predictions Week Ending March 6

FIFA, bless your little heart. I can say so, so many bad things about you but the one thing I can’t say is that you’re inconsistent. And, true to form, you managed to fuck up the simplest of simple decisions by ignoring every constituent and semblance of morality and not kicking Russia out of international competition until the second try. One can only imagine they were waiting for Russia to offer them more money which turned out impossible after the Russian financial markets crashed, but what a wild move nonetheless.

Now, I’m not here to get political or anything of the sort. This character is meant to be separate from those real world issues, which is something I hold on to fairly hard, but this is an international sport and it’s impossible to completely stick my head in the sand. That said, taking the stance of “I think trying to invade other countries and bombing their cities is bad” falls very low on the scale of controversy, so it’s one I’m willing to take. And yet, somehow FIFA looked at Russia and every country’s statement that they would refuse to play them and thought the better approach was just to make the team play without their flag on neutral soil. Kudos for following the IOC in completely nonsensical punishments, but less than satisfactory for any human with half a brain.

Alas, on round 2 FIFA banned all Russian teams from European and International competition, which will make for some difficult issues in terms of approaching games (Russia’s national teams, and Spartak Moscow most notably). But for now, let’s just enjoy FIFA’s ability to throw up on itself with every chance they get to make a smart decision, and then go win some money. Picks!

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🇪🇸 Alaves vs. Sevilla: Friday March 4, 3 PM EST

I’m not gonna lie, I did a bit of a double take when I saw the line on this match. Sure, Sevilla have been inconsistent and don’t look capable of seriously challenging Real for the title, but their win over an in-form Betis last weekend was impressive and their defensive record is still the best in Spain. So, to get -115 against Alaves, who sit 19th and have won just a single match in their last 14 La Liga fixtures is, well, head scratching to put it mildly. Sure, Alaves are slightly better at home and manage to pop us for an odd result every once in a while (they beat Valencia a couple of weeks back out of god damn nowhere), but those upsets tend to be more likely against volatile teams where goals and opportunities will be more common. Sevilla suck the life out of their opponent and Alaves will have very few chances to score, something they don’t do particularly well in the first place. Take Sevilla to handle this game with a nice price.

⛏️ PICK: Sevilla ML (-115) ❌

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🇧🇪 Seriang vs. Club Brugge: Saturday March 5, 2:45 PM EST

Brugge are on a warpath right now. As the League enters the end of their absolutely bizarre two part season structure that I won’t bother explaining here, Brugge are desperately trying to close the gap on Royal Union SG for a chance at the Belgian title and Champions League matches, and they’ll need to push pretty hard to get there. The good news for them is they’re succeeding, averaging 3 goals per game over the last 3 which included 2 matches against teams in the top 7. That’s why, after some basic deduction, there appears to be a lot of value on them to go ballistic on a Seraing side that aren’t very good and gave up 3 goals the last time these clubs played. With the odds on team total at -210 for over 1.5 and +164 for over 2.5, we’re going back to old reliable for a “mini ladder” (step stool?) on Brugge’s goals where we can protect against getting overly aggressive while giving ourselves a chance at two payouts. In a game Brugge needs to win to keep pace, I think they put in a minimum of 2 against one of the worst teams in Belgium and 3 (or even more) wouldn’t be all that surprising.

⛏️ PICKS: Brugge TT Over 1.5 (-210) ✅, Over 2.5 (+164) ✅

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🇮🇹 Fiorentina vs. Verona: Sunday March 6, 9 AM EST

It may not feature the biggest names in Italy, but everyone should be excited for this match. Why? Well, these two teams, and in particular Verona, play absolutely chaotic soccer and it leads to a bunch of goals (much like the EPL’s Leeds, weird coincidence there). Verona’s 27 matches have had a combined 95 goals, while Fiorentina’s have had 81, which makes the over 2.5 at just -136 an absolute steal. While the goal total might not always be representative if a team has a large GD, both sit at exactly +9 which means they score well but also don’t do a hell of a lot of defending. Both are also pretty comfortable at this point in terms of relegation and are fighting for a chance at low tier European spots, so it doesn’t do either much good to play cautious and sit for a draw. Look for Fiorentina and Verona to try and scratch the other’s eyes out like a couple of Italian catwalk models (damn, that analogy had layers. How does nobody pay me to do this) and for 3+ goals here.

⛏️ PICK: Over 2.5 goals (-136)

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🇫🇷 Bordeaux vs. ESTAC Troyes: Sunday March 6, 9 AM EST

Mmmmm, the Sunday match everyone was desperate to watch, am I right? No? Oh shit, nevermind, nobody gives a single fuck about this match unless you’re really interested in the French relegation battle (which, in a country known for losing wars, is probably a hotly contested race for the bottom). Alas, we go where the money takes us. In all seriousness, I think this match actually should be an exciting one, mostly because of how awful both defenses are, and the pressure to pick up points will push both forward throughout the 90 minutes. Bordeaux is the crucial player here because they actually score fairly well at 38 goals on the season, which is more than 3rd place Nice, so you can expect them to find the net. How are they in dead last, you ask? Well, their 63 goals conceded in 26 games is a pretty obvious answer to that question. While Troyes average below a goal per game scored on the year, they simply won’t be able to help themselves from scoring in this game because Bordeaux is going to gift wrap at least a couple of chances, and I think both teams find the back of the net. Both teams to score isn’t crazy valuable at -136, but the price is still solid for the type of game we can expect.

⛏️ PICK: Both Teams To Score (-136)