European Soccer 2021/22 Picks and Predictions Week Ending Jan 9

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Prospector Sam is here with your free soccer picks for this weekend's European soccer action.

One door opens, another door closes. After a limited break and an opportunity for every player across the continent to go out and contract Covid, most of the domestic Leagues have returned to play this weekend (aside from the Danes, who are too busy doing god knows what. Making pastries? Ice fishing with dynamite? I honestly have no idea). Unfortunately, the EPL is on hold for the true start of the FA cup which means most of the major clubs are off playing wickenhamshire or buckhoofingtonberg as part of the classic knockout competition, so there won’t be an England article this week.

Don’t get me wrong, the FA cup is a really cool concept and I like it a lot as a fan, but as a gambler it’s a pretty big pain in the ass. The lines are always a nightmare given the huge gap in talent in the early rounds, and it’s hard to know who will be starting and what kind of performance you’ll get out of any team when they’re also focused on the EPL and recovering from the busy Holiday schedule. So, rather than try to handicap matches with teams I’ve watched very little of, I’ll take a week off from England and give you all a heavier dose of everything else. I hope you don’t mind, but I run this show and that’s what’s happening.

With that, let’s gamble!  ⤵️

Prospector Sam's soccer picks are proudly brought to you by Caesars Sportsbook.

Free Bundesliga Picks For Week 18, 2021-22

Bayern vs. Monchengladbach: Friday Jan 7, 2:30 PM PM EST

The Bundesliga is a bit of a clusterfuck these days, and that may be putting it mildly. A couple of teams named after foods are in the top 6 (Freiburg and Frankfurt, yes I am aware that they aren’t actually named after foods), Wolfsburg is in 13th, and Schalke are still nowhere to be found (RIP). But, just as the sun rises, so will Bayern dominate everybody in this league, and they sit atop the table with 43 points through 17 matches. As you could have guessed yourself, there isn’t all that much equity to work with on taking Bayern to beat Monchengladbach or on a fair number of the normal picks, but I like the home side to come out swinging and put this game away early which is why we’re taking Munich to score more than 1 goal in the first half. Coming off the holiday break Bayern will be well rested and ready to fire, and they should be able to dominate a Gladbach side sitting in 14th with a -10 GD. Bayern Average over 3 goals scored per game as it is, and with the boost of energy in a game they would be glad to put away early, I think they jump on the visitors early and score quick. At +154 for the bet, there’s obviously some risk here but the payout is strong and the play fits the type of match I think we see. Bet this one for a solid payout.

⛏️ PICK: Bayern 1H TT Over 1.5 (+154)

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Free Ligue 1 Picks For Week 20, 2021-22

Bordeaux vs. Marseille: Friday Jan 7, 3 PM EST

Let’s hop over to France, shall we? Another Friday match means I’m giving all of you a bunch to work with before the weekend even starts, and we’re going to go a bit safer here than we did above. Take Marseille to win this match. The ML sits at -145 which obviously has a less lucrative payout than some of the risky shit that you psychos love, but the value is still fantastic relative to where I’d place the odds for this match. Bordeaux have the worst defense in all of France (which says a lot for a country not known for defending itself well), and sit in 17th place with an average of less than 1 point per game on the season. Marseille meanwhile, are tied on points for second place and have had a fairly successful campaign on the back of the lowest goals conceded in Ligue 1. As you can guess, I think the disparity between these two sides is pretty large and, in a League not particularly known for upsets or parity, I think the visitors handle this match comfortably. I would have set the number closer to -180 or -190, and -145 is a bargain for this bet.

⛏️ PICK: Marseille ML (-145)

Montpellier-ESTAC Troyes: Sunday Jan 9, 9 AM EST

Two French picks? You know what they say, two french fries are better than one, and the same principle applies to french soccer winners (but not 3, don’t be greedy). And, similar to the last bet, we’re going with the tried and true principle of “good team beats bad team” with the added bonus of the better team playing at home here. Montpellier are having a respectable season and are sitting in 5th on the back 4 straight Ligue 1 victories, which is a bit higher than they normally finish. How are they doing so well? They’ve feasted on weaker teams and won the games where they have the opportunity to pick up 3 points. And that’s exactly what this game sets up for, facing 15th placed Troyes who’ve lost over half of their League matches and score less than a goal per game. Especially with home field, Montpellier are a fairly comfortable favorite in this one and to get them at -115 feels a bit generous, especially because they’ll be coming out of the break at full strength. Take the home side for the victory.

⛏️ PICK: Montpellier ML (-115)

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Free Serie A Picks For Week 20, 2021-22

Venezia-AC Milan: Sunday Jan 9, 6:30 AM

Because these picks have to be written in advance, I’m making my weekend picks for Serie A ahead of the full Thursday slate of games. If half the AC Milan team dies in that match or something else weird then maybe be a bit more cautious, but I think Milan beats the snot out of Venezia on Sunday and we’re getting aggressive with this one. Venezia have one of the worst defenses in Italy while AC have one of the best offenses, so let’s keep this simple and go with some team total overs here. To use a strategy that’s been beneficial before, we’re going to bet both over 1.5 and over 2.5 because it balances the risk/reward nicely and the odds don’t lead me to either as a “better” option. At -146, over 1.5 feels like a very solid bet given Milan score over 2 per game on average and should easily get to that number here. By adding in the lower total, we provide a pretty high certainty of hitting and protect against getting too risky without protection (and, as they tell you in sex ed, always use protection), but we also wan’t the chance to hit some serious money on the over 2.5 at +240, and I think it’s warranted. AC Milan should win this game comfortably, and I think that 3 goals is a fairly attainable number so long as they play up to their quality here. Take a shot at both on this one with the safety net of 1.5 and a chance at a double winner on the 2.5.

⛏️ PICK: AC Milan TT Over 1.5 (-146) and Over 2.5 (+240)

Udinese-Atalanta: Sunday Jan 9, 10:30 AM EST

Atalanta are a blast to watch, mostly because they play a bit like Leeds in the EPL or Dortmund in the Bundesliga and do not give a damn about discipline. There will be chances, goals, and mistakes in almost every game they play which makes for good soccer and, as you certainly surmised by now, a lot of overs. And, when you get a chance at over 2.5 with some decent value on one of their matches, it’s worth diving on that grenade (well, that phrase doesn’t really apply here, but imagine the grenade is filled with candy or something). This match has the over 2.5 set at -146, which doesn’t sound great but is fairly low for an Atalanta match and I think has a ton of value. Udinese’s 18 matches have had 54 goals (averaging exactly 3 per) while Atalant’s 19 have had 62 goals (averaging more than 3 per) which means over 2.5 is a fairly comfortable expectation. Add in that Atalanta’s offense is lethal and facing a fairly outmatched defense and I think this game should break open for at least 3. Get slightly more aggressive on this one given the negative number and look for a comfortable cover.

⛏️ PICK: Over 2.5 (-146)

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Free La Liga Picks For Week 19, 2021-22

Rayo Vallecano-Real Betis: Sunday January 9, 8 AM EST

Sometimes, you have to play the odds when they’re too high, and this is simply one of those cases. Real Betis aren’t challenging for the title this year (or ever, it’s La Liga and nobody aside from the three big names are going to win unless one actually goes bankrupt or gets swallowed by the ocean), but they’re a solid side and they’re extremely good at holding onto 3 points when they have a lead (they haven’t tied a game since September 19). While Vellacano are also having a strong season, it comes on the back of a La Liga 2 promotion and it’s harder to expect that this side will hold up at a level high enough to stay in European spots or even the top half of the table. So, while Betis aren’t a shoe in to win, they have a fairly solid chance to take this match and +175 is too high of a payout to pass up. The visitors have the second best scoring record in the League behind Real Madrid and a top 4 GD to go along with it. I think the odds are closer to a coin flip here and I'll gladly take a shot at some enticing odds when the winnings could be very lucrative. Respect the danger of this bet, but take a shot at a nice Sunday morning gift in the form of extra dollars sitting in your book account.

⛏️ PICK: Betis ML (+175)