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European Soccer 2021/22 Picks and Predictions Week Ending Feb 20
Prospector Sam is here with your free soccer picks for this weekend's European soccer action.
I know none of you came here for a current events lecture, but how can I start an article on European international affairs (soccer is an “affair,” using the term VERY loosely) without noting that it appears the landscape on the eastern front could soon take a dramatic turn. Do I have anything intelligent to say on the matter? In this case, I’ll refrain. I have a firm rule about not discussing real issues or politics with this character, and wading into the murky waters of geopolitical border disputes and economic sanctions would probably cut against that.
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Even worse, there’s not much to laugh or joke about here. Hell, even diving into the implications for European soccer and what in the hell will happen to all the Ukrainian teams feels like a HORRIBLE idea considering the real life consequences this will have on a lot of people in ways much more significant than “what league does Shakhtar Donetsk play in next year?” But, if nothing else, it’s important to acknowledge the existence of some serious issues that the soccer world is going to have to address soon, and hope for the best for everyone involved. It certainly isn’t my place to go any further than that, but we can all hope for a peaceful resolution at the very least.
Now that I’ve cleared my conscience effectively, on to the bets! (Yes, I acknowledge that that may have been the worst segway made in the history of writing, but I‘m not exactly “well trained” in any sense of the phrase).
Picks ⤵️
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Free Bundesliga Picks For Week 23, 2021-22
Mainz vs. Leverkusen, Fri Feb 18, 2:30pm (ET)
This pick is probably either going to be brilliant or go horribly wrong, and I don’t see a whole lot in between. Simply put, Leverkusen are a force when they play well but have a knack for shooting themselves in the face by giving up easy goals with some amature defending. And, while I’m generally reluctant to take on too much uncertainty when I gamble, I think the money line at +120 is too good to pass up here. Mainz started the season strong but have fallen off lately with some ugly losses to clubs like Greuther and Bochum. It’s actually not as bad as it looks, because the home side were mostly overperforming to start the year, but moving in the wrong direction never feels good. To sum this game up in a sentence, Leverkusen are too good for Mainz on their best day, and with no midweek fixture and better recent form I think they should handle this match. The matchup suits them as well, because Mainz prefer low scoring matches and aren’t built to exploit Leverkusen’s defensive weaknesses. Take the visitors for all 3 points.
⛏️ PICK: Leverkusen moneyline (+120)
Free Serie A Picks For Week 26, 2021-22
Salernitana vs. AC Milan, Sat Feb 19, 2:45m (ET)
Sometimes, the numbers do the work for you, and this is one of those matches that feels so simple I don’t think I have a choice but to play it. Salernitana are the worst team in Serie A, and concede about 2.3 goals per game. AC Milan are in first place in Serie A and score 2 per game. If you assume that the best team will score more than normal against the worst team, which feels like a safe assumption to make, then AC Milan Over 2.5 feels like a smart bet. Even better, we’ve got some solid odds at +134 to make a fairly risky number (generally speaking) worth our time. Everything about this game projects for a blowout by the visitors, and I’m willing to get aggressive on that belief because it would take some fairly unusual circumstances for anything else. The biggest risk is really whether AC Milan stop scoring after a couple, because the game will effectively be over by then, but there are very few other speedbumps aside from a red. I believe they’ll keep their foot on the pedal, especially in a tight title race where goal difference could matter, and I expect AC cover this number.
⛏️ PICK: AC Milan team total OVER 2.5 (+134)
Free Superliga Picks For Week 18, 2021-22
Midtjylland vs. Aab, Sun Fed 20, 8:00AM (ET)
THE SUPERLIGA IS BACK!!! I know this is something that none of you care about, nor does almost anybody not living in Denmark, but I’ve made a killing betting on some of the lower end soccer leagues in the past and the Superliga has been a solid moneymaker. And, while I may be hurting myself by saying this, the strategy really isn’t all that brilliant either. Basically, there are two really strong teams (Midtyjlland and Copenhagen), two above average teams (Randers and Brondby), and the rest is mostly garbage. Rather than complicate things too much or try to get clever with my bets, I mostly look for good odds on one of those top teams to win and somehow the books seem to undervalue the gap in talent every damn time. You may have guessed that we’re betting the home side here, but I can provide a bit more context as well to prove it’s not just a blind bet. Aalborg are solid and sit 4th in the table right now, but in the 6 matches they’ve played this season against those 4 “higher quality” sides mentioned above they’ve managed 2 points total. Midtjylland have beaten them twice this season alone, once at Aalborg and once in the Danish cup. Basically, everything points to another win here and -145 is a damn good price in my opinion based on the gap in talent. Look for the trend to continue and for Midtjylland to walk away with the victory.
⛏️ PICK: Midtjylland moneyline (-145)
Free La Liga Picks For Week 25, 2021-22
Real Betis vs. Mallorca, Sun Feb 20, 12:30pm (ET)
After Real Madrid’s midweek disaster in Paris where they were thoroughly dominated, we learned that Spain is now simply a mid-tier league. Bad news for Spanish fans, but good news for Sam because those leagues are where I thrive. And, while most teams in La Liga may be boring as all hell to watch, Betis is not and I will gladly bet on some goals from the home side here. Betis are second in the league in goals scored and average nearly two per game, which provides a solid opportunity to use our 2 bet split option of over 1.5 and over 2.5. That gives us the opportunity of a double winner, but protects against the danger of only betting the higher number. And, against a Mallorca side sitting 15th who haven’t kept a clean sheet since October, I like Betis to find the back of the net at least twice. The biggest concern, similar to our Milan bet, is that Mallorca simply don’t score much which could make it unnecessary for the home side to put up a big number, but that really isn’t Betis’ style and they’ve been more than happy to lay it on thick against weaker teams over the last couple of months. I think we get the same here, and we can balance risk/reward nicely with the double pick for a shot at two winners
⛏️ PICK: Real Betis team total OVER 1.5 (-146), 2.5 (+240)
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Prospector Sam is a cartoon man that handicaps as well as anyone on the planet. No one knows exactly who The Prospector is, but what is known is how well he does from sports betting.
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