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European Soccer 2021/22 Picks and Predictions Week Ending Dec 12
Prospector Sam is here with your free soccer picks for this weekend's European soccer action.
Last week I strongly suggested that you all take a risk with me on bets where you probably haven’t heard of or watched the teams playing, both because I had strong feeling about those picks and because I’m just a bit of an odd duck. The theory, to keep it simple, is that there’s value to be found in fringe European soccer because the handle on those games just isn’t large enough for books to give a damn and there’s money to be made from taking advantage of bad lines. And, like the goddamn savant that I am (nobody has ever thought of this approach before me, I’m sure of it), I gave you comfortable winners on Zurich ML (-120) and Anderlecht ML (+125) where the odds just didn’t match up with reality.
Now, I’m not going to talk like one of those cappers on twitter trying to convince you that I’m a gambling genius and that I have an ROI higher than someone who bought Bitcoin in 2010 (guess what, that doesn’t happen), but I do have some idea for what I’m doing here and I think this approach has some serious legs to it in the long term. Money is money, and winning it from Belgian soccer is just as good as winning it from SNF, so why not take a crack at bets that don’t get as much attention and see if we can profit where others aren’t looking closely enough. As my whole played out schtick goes, I’m here “looking for gold nuggets in hard to find places” (I can’t believe how hard I lean into my own nonsense some days) so might as well put that into practice for all of you.
With that, more bets from continental Europe with a couple that you surely never looked for or probably even wanted. You’re welcome ⤵️
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Free Serie A Picks For Week 17, 2021-22
Udinese vs. AC Milan, Sat Dec 11, 2:45pm (ET)
Well, after all that fanfare, I’m going to do the exact opposite and bet on a club in AC Milan that you almost certainly have heard of. Sometimes things don’t go exactly according to plan, and I like this bet too much to keep it to myself. AC Milan are tearing through Serie A like a fat kid through a box of sugary cereal, and they’ve handled most matches against lower end competition fairly comfortably. Udinese, while traditionally a solid side, have slipped way out of form (1 win in their last 13 league matches) and are looking less and less like a team capable of competing against teams near the top of the table. In fact, they lost their other two matches against teams currently in the top 3 by scores of 2-0 and 4-0, which doesn’t inspire confidence that they can step up here. While Milan will have to deal with the extra midweek UCL fixture and have to travel for this match, the gap in quality here is fairly substantial and I think Milan should be more of a comfortable favorite to win the match. At a standard payout of -110, I think this game has a ton of value and I would expect the odds to drop a decent amount by game time if you don’t get the bet in early enough. Throw some dollars (or whatever currency you people use) on the Italian giants to win.
⛏️ PICK: AC Milan moneyline (-110)
Free Bundesliga Picks For Week 15, 2021-22
Greuther Furth vs. Union Berlin, Sun Dec 12, 9:30am (ET)
Has there ever been anything in the history of Germany that sounds more German than “Greuther Furth.” Just pure to its core and probably loves lagers and pretzels and losing wars. But, while they may be German in name, they aren’t quite there in soccer skill. This team is so bad they may get relegated two divisions come the end of the year, considering they have just 1 point and a -34 GD through 14 games (no, that was not a typo). Union Berlin, while having a strong season, aren’t anywhere near the top of the table and should be fighting for low end European spots come May along with teams like Hoffenheim and Wolfsburg, so don’t mistake them for a high end team like Bayern. But this unit is in 6th and producing solid performances on a weekly basis, which gives me enough confidence that they can handle the worst team in the division comfortably. If we’re being honest, pretty much any team in the League can (see 13 losses and 1 draw). At -140 the number isn’t going to buy you a new mansion in Cabo, but it’s worth putting a good chunk on considering the overall quality of Greuther. Take Union to continue the home side’s run of misery.
⛏️ PICK: Union moneyline (-140)
Free Ligue One Picks For Week 18, 2021-22
Angers vs. Clermont, Sun Dec 12, 9:00am (ET)
Let the Anger(s) flow through you and lead you to victory! Was that corny and absolutely unnecessary? Yup, but this is my show and I write whatever makes me laugh, so deal with it. As you may have surmised, we’re going with the team whose name could be mistaken for one of the Seven Dwarfs, but it actually has more to do with their opposition. Celrmont have lost 6 of their last 7 games and, after the new promotion adrenaline rush wore off, have basically looked like a team destined for relegation and a return to League 2. Admittedly, this team hasn’t been completely outmatched and each of their last 6 losses has been by a single goal, but I think that has a lot to do with the lack of class and an inability to find their way back into games once they get behind. So long as Angers, a team averaging over 1.5 goals per game, finds the net first they should be able to handle this game, and I think they should be a decent favorite to do so on their home pitch. At +105 we’re getting an above 1:1 payout on them to beat Clermont, and I think that price is a bit of a bargain (and who doesn’t need one of those around Christmas time). Angers wins at home.
⛏️ PICK: Angers moneyline (+105)
Free Swiss Super League Picks For Week 17, 2021-22
Servette vs. Basel, Sun Dec 12, 10:30am (ET)
Basel: Good on pizza, good on Sam’s betting slip. Aside from one very obnoxious slip up earlier in the year, Basel is a team I’ve returned to on a fairly consistent basis in these articles to make money and it’s worked out pretty darn well (I’m thinking about starting a Basel farm in their honor and naming it Basel’s Basel). The Swiss Super League is just one of those national divisions with a few teams that have talent and a bunch of extra sides that don’t have much of a prayer. Basel, Zurich and Young Boys have won every title since 2004 and the money flowing into these clubs makes it unlikely for anything to change in the near future. So, if you can find some solid odds on one of those teams to handle a game against lesser competition, the value is usually there. We took advantage of that last week with Zurich’s 4-0 win over Luzern, and at +140 for Basel to beat Servette I think we have a high quality play here (A diamond in the rough, if you will? I’m more into gold, but any precious resources you can dig out of the ground are good in my book). Servette are a middling team with a negative GD, and they got blown out 5-1 when these two sides faced in August. While home field advantage is a bit of a boost, I think Basel simply has too much talent for them and I’ll gladly take a positive payout on them based on the relative risk. Take a crack at our favorite plant to produce another winner
⛏️ PICK: Basel moneyline (+140)
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Prospector Sam is a cartoon man that handicaps as well as anyone on the planet. No one knows exactly who The Prospector is, but what is known is how well he does from sports betting.
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