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European Soccer 2021/22 Picks and Predictions Week Ending April 17
Too many games, not enough time. As I sit here in my office avoiding my work and trying my best not to get fired, I spend a majority of my hours thinking about gambling or finishing my assignments so that I can gamble. I’m a simple man, and I need very few things to make me happy (which is a plus in my book. Give me a fridge of beer, a TV, and a computer and I could be content for days). But, while I’d gladly give up most of my other responsibilities to do nothing but this, I still have bills to pay and a fiance who shockingly has other interests, which leaves me limited in my ability to make informed picks (I could give you tons of garbage, but that seems like a poor choice for both of us).
Why am I bringing this up now? Well, with the plethora of important games across the continent, I’ll try my best to give all of you action on the games where I find value. But I can’t put them all on here because writing takes time, so I’m going to just shamelessly plug my twitter for anyone who may not already follow. Sure, I love the additional followers and the adoration of cheap social media likes, but I mostly say it because I have no choice but to give out a lot of my picks on there. Time is money and, until I win the PowerBall, I don’t have all that much time (I’m gonna win it soon though, I can feel it).
But, for those who still want the full write ups and hilarious jokes (I find them funny at least), let’s get in a few paragraphs to appease my adoring fans. Picks!
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🇮🇹 Lazio vs. Torino: Saturday April 16, 2:45 PM EST
Let’s all take a moment here to appreciate Lazio. Sitting 6th in Serie A without much hope of winning the title, they don’t get much attention, but this team puts on a god damn show every time they play and deserves some love for it (like the less attractive stripper who doesn’t get as much attention but works her tail off for those dollars). Lazio’s 32 matches have had a combined 111 goals, which gets us well over 3 per match, and that includes close to 1.5 conceded on average. To keep things easy, this team scores and concedes at a very high rate, making BTTS a very good bet in most cases. But somehow we’ve got it at just -110 here? Sign me up. Sure, Torino sit at the other end of the spectrum, with just 65 goals in their 31 games and a fairly strong defense. But in soccer the better team usually dictates play and I expect Lazio to impose their style on Torino. Unless Torino can hold down the home side for about 60 minutes (which seems unlikely) I think this game opens up and turns into a fist fight, and Torino should be able to find a goal because Lazio don’t have the defensive discipline to keep them off the board. Pretty much any time you can get a Lazio game at -110 for both teams to score you should take it, just from a statistical standpoint, and I’m grabbing it here. Don’t think too hard, just shoot.
⛏️ PICK: Both Teams To Score: Yes (-110) ✅
🇪🇸 Granada vs. Levante: Sunday April 17, 8 AM EST
Well, last week we made some money off an absolutely awful game where I bet both teams to score based on defensive ineptitude, and it’s time to strike the kettle while it’s hot. Here we have two of the worst 3 defenses in La Liga, including a Levante side who give up almost exactly two goals per game. Don’t expect anything special on that end of the field, or even close to it. While these offenses aren’t nearly as “productive” as their defensive counterparts, each team is more than capable of scoring and averages over a goal per. Just as important, both of these teams REALLY need 3 points. Levante are running out of time to avoid the drop while Granada sit 1 point above it, meaning a win would go a long way here. Considering that neither expects to win a 1-0 game because clean sheets aren’t a realistic goal, I believe both will try to win with an offensive approach, which will open the game and lead to goals. At -144 the value isn’t quite as staggering as the last bet, but the price is still strong and it’ll provide a good Sunday morning bankroll boost for your later degeneracy.
⛏️ PICK: Both Teams To Score: Yes (-144)
🇫🇷 Troyes vs. Strasbourg: Sunday April 17, 9 AM EST
It’s admittedly been a very odd year in Ligue 1, but I don’t really get why Strasbourg don’t get credit for what they’ve done. Sure, bigger clubs like Monaco, Lyon and Lille are having down years, but Strasbourg sit 4th after 31 matches and that’s a pretty large body of work. So, when facing 15th placed Troyes, who have a -15 GD (that’s some very nice parallelism), I expect the visitors to get a bit more trust. The books still don’t feel that way, though, and I’m ready to burn them for it. There are a number of ways to skin this cat, but the one I like best is Strasbourg TT over 1.5. The visitors score well over 1.5 per game, and facing a lower table side they should have enough firepower to cover that number. And, at +128, we get a very strong payout along with the protection against an odd result where Troyes find the net once or twice. The visitors are on the cusp of UCL soccer next year and will push for all 3 points to give them a real chance at it, which tells me oppprtunities and goals should come. Look for the walls of Troy(es) to fall like someone put a Trojan horse outside (my high school Latin teacher would be proud of that one).
⛏️ PICK: Strasbourg Team Total Over 1.5 (+128)
🇩🇪 Leverkusen vs. Leipzig: Sunday April 17, 1:30 PM EST
I try my best to provide picks for games that people actually want to watch, but sometimes it just deosn’t work out that way. At the end of the day, the most important factor is making money and I go where I think we have the best chances of doing it. Those last 3 picks are a pretty prime example, since I doubt very many of you actually want (or possibly even know where) to watch those matches. Thankfully, though, our last pick is a great game between 2 of the top 4 teams in Germany, and it sets up to be exciting as hell. Both of these teams average well over 2 goals per game, and their failures usually (and I say usually because Leverkusen burned us with a 0-0 draw last week) come from defensive mistakes. I don’t see any reason to expect otherwise here, especially with Schick back from injury for the home side, and goals should be plentiful. Admittedly, -158 isn’t going to make you rich on over 2.5, but I think that’s a fairly generous number and I’ll gladly bet more to get a solid payout here. If you want to take on more risk, throw in a bonus on some corners to raise the return. As of the time I’m sending this article those corner totals aren’t out, but over 6.5 should be a safe number and boost you to somewhere around -120 (I’m guessing, but I spend a lot of time in the corners market because I’m a psycho who spends far too much time on this nonsense). Expect a fun one here
⛏️ PICK: Over 2.5 Total Goals (-158)
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Prospector Sam is a cartoon man that handicaps as well as anyone on the planet. No one knows exactly who The Prospector is, but what is known is how well he does from sports betting.
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