European Soccer 2021/22 Picks and Predictions Week Ending April 10

It's time for another European adventure, with Prospector Sam providing picks for four of the biggest soccer leagues in the world.

Well folks, last week I promised value on obscure Belgian soccer and boy did I deliver. Unfortunately…. nothing else went right. I try my best to keep an open and honest dialogue on how things are going around here, and last week certainly wasn’t my best from a results standpoint. Am I concerned? Not really. For one, bad weeks are a certainty in gambling world and what matters is long term productivity and profit. The short term was bad, but the bigger picture is much better looking (think zooming out from a rock to see a majestic mountain or something corny like that).

Also, last week seemed to just have some bizarre results across the board that not a lot of people saw coming. My job is to sift through that mess and find the right spots where things WON’T go wrong (so I’m certainly not blameless), but some weeks have more landmines than others and, alas, I’m not perfect.

So here’s what we take away from last week as I see it:

1. I am very committed to being open about how things go, even when they aren’t good. That’s a minimal requirement for every capper
2. Bad weeks aren’t fun, but they are inevitable and the best we can do is come out and win next week
3. Maybe I need to just spend all my time betting on the Jupiler League because those fuckers never seem to let me down.

With that, we march headfirst into another big slate. Let’s make some money.

Check out Prospector Sam's brand new podcast!

Prospector Sam's soccer picks are proudly brought to you by Caesars Sportsbook.

🇪🇸 Cadiz CF vs. Real Betis: Saturday April 9, 8:00AM EDT

Time to climb the ladder! Ladder betting is a tool I use infrequently, but one that has a ton of value in the right spots. It’s generally more useful for higher scoring sports or bets, but soccer has it’s moments as well. And, here, I’m taking the visitors to score goals. Betis is one of the best offensive teams in La Liga, averaging almost 2 per game, and, facing a Cadiz side with very little quality, I think they will have the lion’s share of chances and goals. Sure, Cadiz aren’t actually all that bad defensively and will likely play for a 1-0 win, but that strategy goes out the window if Betis breaks them early and the whole game opens up from there. Betis are still in striking distance for UCL soccer next year and have made a habit of beating up on worse teams, which gives me confidence that they can make some waves in this one. Take Betis Over 0.5 (-350), over 0.5 1H (+114), over 1.5 (+146) and Over 2.5 (+500) for a chance to take home some big money.

⛏️ PICK: Real Betis Ladder Play → Team Total Over 0.5 (-350), Over 0.5 1H (+114), Over 1.5 (+146), Over 2.5 (+500)

Editor's note: If you're confused by the ladder play, hit up Prospector on Twitter!

---

🇮🇹 Cagliari vs. Juventus: Saturday April 9, 2:45PM EDT

Well, last week Juventus burned us. We can either act like a scorned ex and make a spiteful pick, or we can take what we saw and use it effectively. I choose the latter, and I’m betting Juve to grab 3 points. While the 1-0 loss to Inter was disappointing (especially for our BTTS pick), they were the far better side in that match and deserved a better result. Inter had the talent to hold the Old Lady in check, but Cagliari simply do not and are probably going to get railroaded here. Cagliari have the second worst defensive record in Serie A, and Juventus will be able to exploit that with “king’s riches” of skill players up front. The visitors also give up less than a goal a game, meaning Cagliari are a very good candidate to put up a 0 in this match. At -170 the value isnt huge, but it’s good enough to be worth the risk. Add in a low corner total to boost the odds (Over 4.5 Juventust corners gets us to +160) for a nice Bonus bet, and that leaves us with both a safe play and high payout bet in one swing. Who doesn’t like buy one get one free? (Answer: my fiance, when I used to get buy one get one free meat from the grocery store. I’m no longer allowed to go by myself).

⛏️ PICK: Juventus ML (-170).

⛏️ BONUS: ML + Over 4.5 Corners = (+160)

---

🇫🇷 Metz vs. Bordeaux: Sunday April 10, 7:00AM EDT

Time for our “game you absolutely don’t ever want to watch nor can you find somewhere to watch it” pick of the week. Too wordy? Oh well. These are the two worst teams in France and both are in very serious danger of relegation. It doesnt make for great soccer to watch, but there’s value to be found if you look in the right places and I think both teams to score is that spot. Bordeaux couldn’t stop a team of turkeys from scoring (see; 70 conceded in 30 matches) while Metz aren’t far ahead at 3rd worst in the league in goals against. Given that both are on the wrong side of the “cut line” (it’s Masters week, had to toss in a golf reference), I think you see a lot of aggressive soccer knowing both can’t afford less than 3 points. Offensive ineptitude is a slight concern, but neither are terrible on that end and the value is there at -110. Make some money, despite the fact you probably won’t watch.

⛏️ PICK: Both Teams to Score = YES (-110)

---

🇧🇪 Club Brugge vs. KV Mechelen: Sunday April 10, 12:30PM EDT

You were starting to get worried I’d leave out Belgium, weren’t you? Never. In all honesty, there isnt a lot of value across the board there this week and I try my best to give you bets that aren’t very low payouts, but after talking about my love for the Jupiler League I couldn’t resist tossing one in. Both Teams to Score at -160 is the play here, which makes all the sense in the world if you look at KV’s record. The visitors have scored 57 and conceded 59 in just 33 matches, which is a total that damn near defies logic, especially since they sit in 7th place. At 116 total goals (math!), their games average nearly 4 per and that makes BTTS a fairly high likelihood. So, while -160 may not seem all that lucrative, I feel like it should be closer to -200. I don’t have a ton of concerns, but the biggest is obviously KV scoring on Brugge, who’ve only conceded 37 goals on the year. While that’s fairly strong for Belgium, it’s still over 1 per game and I think KV do enough to find the net once. Let’s keep the ball rolling and make some more profit off the Belgians.

⛏️ PICK: Both Teams to Score = YES (-160)