Euro Soccer Picks: Bets From European Football on Saturday, October 15 and Sunday, October 16, 2022

Prospector Sam's is locked and loaded with his European soccer bets to deliver you more winners this weekend.

One of the most interesting and challenging parts of gambling soccer this year is the fact that the World Cup has completely f**ked up everything we’re used to. Club soccer normally has a well thought out flow with games and international competitions spaced out to balance extra fixtures and congestion with time for rest and recovery. It’s not always perfect, and there are weird aspects to it like some leagues taking a winter break while others play double the fixtures because apparently they hate their players (I’m all for it, by the way, I love the extra EPL in December), but overall it generally makes sense.

Then, we decided to blow it all to smithereens. And by “We” I mean the delegates from FIFA who were handed blank checks by Qatar to vote for a tiny desert nation as host for the world’s biggest sporting competition. Now, I’m not even going to get into the moral and ethical dilemmas involved in that decision and the slave labor issues that have followed. But, simply from a pragmatic standpoint, this is the dumbest f**king idea I’ve ever seen. Now we have countries trying to fit in crazy domestic schedules with teams playing multiple games a week every week just so that their players can take a two-month break in November and December to go to a wasteland with oil under it and play a World Cup in a country where you cant even drink.

So, to FIFA I say “f**k you.” I need consistency in my life and change does not go over well with me. And now, rather than the nice summer World Cup and a normal club schedule, I’m watching teams trot out half dead players with too many miles on their legs, which produces lower quality soccer and fucks with my gambling. For Shame! Oh, and the human rights stuff is pretty bad too.

Speaking of gambling…

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Euro Soccer Best Bets: October 15 & 16

Winterthur-Grasshoppers: Saturday, October 15 - 2:30PM ET

If you’re reading this and unsure whether we’re still talking about soccer, don't worry — you probably aren't alone. I dive fairly deep into the abyss of mid-tier European soccer and often that lands us in places where teams have very silly or confusing names. And, while Denmark is probably the most challenging because you cant even pronounce the team you’re betting on, telling people that you’re putting money on grasshoppers presents its own set of issues.

Unfortunately, I gave away the punch line for the sake of the intro, but let’s put some money down on Grasshoppers team total Over 1.5 (+122) and Over 2.5 (+400). Grasshoppers average about two goals per game (while also conceding two per game), which tells you that this one will have chances and goals, likely on both ends. But, while Winterthur aren't completely inept, they score less than one per match and concede close to 2.5. And, when these two sides faced each other a month ago Grasshoppers won, 3-0. Sometimes my job isn’t all that difficult, you just have to look in the right places.

PICK: Grasshoppers Team Total Over 1.5 (+122, 1.5 units at Caesars Sportsbook)

PICK: Grasshoppers Team Total Over 2.5 (+400, 1 unit at Caesars Sportsbook)

Lens-Montpellier: Saturday, October 15 - 3:00PM ET

Every once in a while you find a number so good that it baffles you. That happened to me here. You see, Montpellier are a “unicorn” in the sense that they simply do not want to play anything except all-out attack soccer. Essentially they’re like a 9-year-old playing FIFA. And, boy, does it make for fun soccer to watch.

Even better, it also makes both teams to score a fairly high quality bet, which is why -138 for that choice is a head scratcher. The catch appears to be that the books don’t think Montpellier will score, and to that I say “Hogwash.” Montpellier did get blanked last weekend against Monaco, but that is the only time since the season started that they’ve failed to score. Lens are defensively solid, conceding just eight goals in 10 league matches thus far, but they’re not good enough to keep teams completely at bay and they won’t dominate possession. So, -138 on this bet for a Montpellier team who averages over two goals scored and conceded per match, I will gladly go big on this bet. It is a mont I’m willing to die on (see what I did there?).

PICK: Both Teams To Score (-138, 2.5 units at Caesars Sportsbook)

Union-Dortmund: Sunday, October 16 - 11:30AM ET

By all accounts, it appears that Union’s unlikely run of form is starting to sputter out. While they still sit atop the Bundesliga with an impressive defensive record, this club is not built to win the German domestic title, not to mention handle that along with a full slate of European matches midweek. Thus, we’ve found our angle on Dortmund.

The perennial bridesmaids of Germany have had a fairly nondescript season, which makes sense when you consider they had to give up the most exciting player in the world for about a quarter of his actual value. But, while they’re not spectacular, they’ve got an experienced squad built on long-term success and they’ve handled their business in both the Bundesliga and the UCL Group. So, while it may seem a bit crazy to bet on Dortmund goals against a team who hardly concedes, I think this is an opportunity to attack (double entendre again, give me the Pulitzer).

To start, Dortmund will be better rested for this match, having two extra days off from their European fixture. On top of that, their recent form against Union is fairly good. Sure, you can point to Haaland for a lot of that success, but the Norwegian was out injured when these sides played in Berlin last February and Dortmund won 3-0. Basically, I think Union are going to start regressing to the mean in the long term and Dortmund, on average, should be able to break down a team who will struggle to handle the brutal fixture schedule. I’ll get a bit clever and bet on some goals.

PICK: Dortmund Team Total Over 1.5 (+124, 1.25 units at Caesars Sportsbook)

PICK: Dortmund Team Total Over 2.5 (+420, .75 units at Caesars Sportsbook)