Euro Soccer Best Bets: Plays From Around The Globe For Saturday, September 3

Chaos ensues! And no, I’m not referring to the Danish Superliga where the table is so screwed up that I can’t even begin to explain what’s happening anymore. I’m talking about the return of domestic midweek soccer, which is an absolute nightmare for me and my writing.

As a human/cartoon, I thrive in a state of juxtaposition. Just like I bounce back and forth between a normal life with a 9-to-5 job and a persona where I gamble and pretend to dig gold, I also have to balance my nonsense with a need for organization and analytical “expertise.” That’s hard as it is and throwing in midweek games just adds to the complexity.

You see, while I do my best to be self-deprecating and not take things too seriously, I put a lot of work into these articles and want them to be enjoyable and profitable. Between that and the deadlines to get them up on the site, I need to finish them a couple days in advance, which puts me at a distinct disadvantage when I’m trying to make bets on teams that have a game before the one I’m picking (and, quite frankly, I just wont do that).

How does that impact us? Well, I have to cut out a bunch of options and leagues, which means I’m working with a smaller range of choices. Does that imply I’m forcing bets and giving you garbage? Absolutely f***ing not. I take pride in my “craft” and I would never put out a wager I didn't trust. But I’m a big believer in honesty and giving all of you the best information possible, and this is an important factor I had to consider this week.

If that makes sense and was valuable to you, great! I’m glad to add a little more. If not, oh well — at least I tried. Now let’s go make some money…

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Euro Soccer Best Bets: September 3

Sion vs. Basel Best Bet

Kickoff: 12:00PM ET on Saturday, September 3

Our favorite plant makes a return to the articles (sorry, potheads)! Basel have been a bit of a lost puppy for the last few months, wandering through the streets without any direction. But, on the whole, this is still one of the better sides in Switzerland who should figure things out in the long run and BOY OH BOY did they last weekend by smacking the absolute crap out of reigning holders Zurich.

In fact, if you add in a cup match and a ECL second leg, this side has scored 11 goals in their last three games, which gives me enough confidence to get back on board the Basel Train. This week their opponent is Sion, who isn’t much of a bear to take on (more like a frightened bunny). Sion regularly get whipped by the better clubs in Switzerland and typically float somewhere around relegation come the end of the season. So, while Basel may still not be 100%, they have a very solid chance of finding goals in the match and +106 for Over 1.5 is a very good price. Could we go bigger? Sure, there’s a chance they go medieval on them and throw up a crooked number, but this feels like a time for more caution than aggression given Basel’s inconsistency, and I’m going to stick with a safer play. Basel should find more than one, and that’s good enough to make money.

Play: Basel Team Total Over 1.5 (+106, 1.75 units)

Frankfurt vs. Leipzig Best Bet

Kickoff: 12:30PM ET on Saturday, September 3

Speaking of teams who seem insistent on making life difficult, welcome in Leipzig. To be quite honest, I flip back and forth between “this team is an absolute mess” and “this team could make a run in Europe” about three times a match. But any team with Christopher Nkunku has a solid chance to score goals and Leipzig are eventually going to break out of their malaise.

Frankfurt, meanwhile, are just an absolute disaster. This was a big week for them having qualified for the UCL on the back of their Europa crown, and they followed the Group Stage draw up with one of the most bizarre performances I’ve ever watched in a 4-3 victory at Werder Bremen, where they couldn't seem to figure out if they actually wanted to win or not. But, one thing is clear about them, and it’s the fact that their defense just isn't very good. They’re currently second to last in Germany with 11 goals conceded in four matches, and that number is reason for optimism about Leipzig’s scoring chances.

Because of that, the current price of -136 for Over 1.5 goals is worth the risk in my opinion, based both on the talent Leipzig have and the weakness of Frankfurt. The inconsistency on both ends is a bit concerning, but we’re sticking to a safe number similar to our bet above and it’s worth the price without biting off more than we can chew. Take the walking advertisements to get things moving this weekend.

Play: Leipzig Team Total Over 1.5 (-136, 1.25 units)

Sevilla vs. Barcelona Best Bet

Kickoff: 3:00 pm ET on Saturday, September 3

Something is not right with Sevilla. And by “something” I mean “selling both of your starting center backs is a good way to give up goals.” This team has already conceded five in three matches with the best opponent in that span being Osasuna, which makes the team totals for Barcelona a bit of a head scratcher in my opinion.

Speaking of Barcelona, it turns out that buying one of the best strikers in the world is a good way to improve your offense. Barca have managed eight in their last two games, four of which have come from Robert Lewandowski, and their attacking output seems destined to be pretty darn large this year. Will that win them a title? I’m not so sure. They still have some defensive issues that haven't quite been exploited yet, but that’s more been a product of their weak opposition (RIP Real Sociedad. After losing Alexander Isak, that team is toast) than it has been their “strong defense.”

Rounding our write-up back to this game, we have an offense clicking on all cylinders facing a defense that can’t tell its head from its ass, which leads me to the very simple conclusion of “goals.” We go a bit more aggressive here and add up to 2.5 because I think, quite honestly, that it’s not an unrealistic assumption and +260 is too good a price to pass on. Barcelona may still be a garbage club for the shenanigans they’ve pulled this summer, but that doesn't mean they wont succeed on the field.

Play: Barcelona Team Total Over 1.5 (-130, 1.5 units) & Barcelona Team Total Over 2.5 (+260, 1 unit)