Euro Soccer Best Bets: Plays From Around The Globe For August 27 and August 28

Sometimes, it’s better to keep things short and sweet. And by that I mean “I’m busy as hell at work right now so I don’t have two hours to kill writing this article or my boss will fire me.”

As you know, I love writing and indulgent tangents that lead to nowhere and jokes that are only funny to someone with a brain twisted like mine. But, while I give a lot of time to this character (probably too much, if we’re being honest, but I love it), sometimes the real world takes precedence because I cant pay my mortgage in Gold Digger Dabloons and Elmo Fire Emojis. With that, right to the picks.

If you want more write-ups, go check out The Gold Mine (™ pending) and drop a hello, and if you don't care at all then ignore this whole tangent and you can pretend it never happened. Now let’s get to it!

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Euro Soccer Best Bets: August 27 and August 28

Mainz vs. Leverkusen Best Bet

Kickoff: 9:30AM ET on Saturday, August 27

Am I writing about this game purely to tell Mainz to stick it where the sun don’t shine (which is a lot of places, that saying is dumb)? No. But also, screw them. I rarely bet an Under as a soccer capper, but there I was on Saturday ready to cash my metaphorical check on our Under 2.5 bet until Mainz scored in the last goddamn minute of stoppage time. So, I say again, screw them.

In line with that statement (though not due to any bias, I assure you), we’re betting on Leverkusen to score some goals. One philosophy (can we count what I do as philosophical? Probably not, right?) I harp on when I gamble is getting ahead of changes in performance. Last weekend I made a lot of money on Barcelona and all their uncertainty by predicting that they would turn the corner, and Leverkusen are a prime candidate this week to turn the ship around. They certainly need to, considering they’ve lost all three Bundesliga matches and their DFB-Pokal match to Elversberg to start the year.

While the world may be bleak for them right now, Patrik Schick can still score with the best and this team scored 80 goals in 34 games last year. EIGHTY. Unless your entire team dies, it’s just not really possible to drop off this hard long term, and at -104 for Over 1.5, that number is better than anything you would have seen all of last season. Away to a plucky Mainz side isn’t necessarily the most obvious time for things to turn, but I like the value and they should find chances.

Play: Leverkusen Team Total Over 1.5 (-104, 1.5 units)

Boavista vs. Benfica Best Bet

Kickoff: 1:00PM ET on Saturday, August 27

As far as consistency goes, there are very few places in the soccer world (think Bayern winning the Bundesliga) as consistent as Portugal. The big three feast on the brains of the lesser clubs on a regular basis, and the goal differential is really the thing that is more up for grabs than the result itself. 

Boavista aren’t horrendous, and they’ve actually put up a half-decent fight against some of the better sides in recent years, but this team just lost 2-0 to newly promoted Casa Pia and I don’t see a lot of hope against a Benfica side who’ve absolutely decimated a couple of high-class sides in the UCL qualifiers. Sure, there may be some extra wear for the visitors having played those additional matches, and Benfica aren’t quite as dominant in front of net as Porto. But overall, this game could get ugly if Benfica break it open early and I expect they do.

For that reason, we’re going with everyone’s favorite play: the ladder. Over 1.5 is a comfortable assumption and, at -196, it buys us protection against losses if that’s as far as Benfica go. And, if they do go further, we can grab some great payout at +180 for Over 2.5 and +500 for Over 3.5. It’s an aggressive line, but fortune favors the bold. Let’s aim high on this one.

Play: Benfica Team Total Over 1.5 (-196, 2 units), Benfica Team Total Over 2.5 (+180, 1 unit), Benfica Team Total Over 3.5 (+500, 0.5 units) 

Fiorentina vs. Napoli Best Bet

Kickoff: 2:45 pm ET on Sunday, August 21

Trappy McTrapface (shout out to Boaty McBoatface, go look it up). As you may have surmised, this number has trap written all over it. I can feel it, but somehow I can’t talk myself out of going towards the shining light…

To sum it up nicely, I haven't got a clue how Napoli Team Total Over 1.5 is -104 and that’s crazier than a shit-house rat (I was raised in a barn, that’s as nice as I get). Sure, Fiorentina are a solid side and have home field, but Napoli have scored nine goals in two games so far and that form alone is good enough to make me obligated to take this. Is there anything else backing this? I’m glad you asked, because there certainly is. These two teams have played five matches since the start of 2021, and Napoli has scored multiple goals in all of them. I am, quite simply, at a loss for words here, and I’m diving in head first. Trappy McTrapface here I come.

Play: Napoli Team Total Over 1.5 (-104, 2.25 units)