Euro Soccer Best Bets: Plays From Across Europe on Saturday, September 10 and Sunday September 11, 2022

Chaos ensues! And no, I’m not referring to the Danish Superliga where the table is so screwed up that I can’t even begin to explain what’s happening anymore. I’m talking about the return of domestic midweek soccer, which is an absolute nightmare for me and my writing.

JUST KEEP SWIMMING! JUST KEEP SWIMMING! Good advice for Dory, good advice for Sam. With College football, the NFL, and European Group Stage matches back, this mere cartoon is in the goddamn trenches as far as gambling preparation and content goes.

That, on top of a full time job and other normal human requirements such as spending time with my wife and very needy cat, makes for very little opportunity to come up for air. Overwhelming, but also awesome at the same time.

You see, I won’t fall into the trap of being upset by the gluttony of sports I have at my fingertips. I still vividly remember the sadness of June when there was nothing besides baseball and I was begging for ANYTHING to watch and gamble on. So, while I may feel like the next 3 months are going to be a clusterfuck that will come close to killing me, I also wouldn't have it any other way.

Plus, I genuinely do love this gig and gambling and sports so I really cant complain if that’s the thing taking up my time. If you do what you love you’ll never work a day in your life, so they say; well, I still “work” until I hit the lottery and quit my real job, but the extra cartoon gig won’t cause me more pain.

On that chipper note, let’s get crackin’.

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Euro Soccer Best Bets: September 10

France Ligue 1: Marseille vs. Lille: Saturday September 10 at 3PM ET

Some times my picks are dictated by a level of gambling “expertise” or clever insight from my brain, other times I just look at the numbers and say “that sounds smart.” Today we go for the latter.

Lille’s goal numbers this year, both on offense and defense, are pretty fucking staggering. They’ve scored 13 and conceded 13 in 6 in matches. SIX. Sure, that stat was buffered a bit by getting absolutely plastered against PSG, but more than 4 goals per game is pretty telling overall. So, with the over 2.5 sitting at -122, I simply can't do anything besides bet that over.

Of course, there are concerns. Marseille had to travel to England for a midweek UCL fixture with Spurs (which they lost, shout out Tottenham and their impending quad). These are also two fairly even teams which can lead to less aggressive play overall, and over 2.5 hasn’t hit in their last 4 meetings. But I’m focused on the product being put out right now, and nothing about Lille’s play tells me this won't go over.

Oh, and Marseille average over 2 goals scored per game for what it’s worth. Don’t think too much, just fire.

PICK: Over 2.5 (-122) for 1.25U at Caesars Sportsbook

Euro Soccer Best Bets: September 11

Belgian Pro League: Westerlo vs. Anderlecht: Sunday, September 11 at 7:30AM ET

As I showed with the last pick, I’m a simple man at times. I find things that work, and I stick with them until they prove me wrong. And, in the vein of riding out betting strategies that have paid huge dividends, very few have done as well as “fade Westerlo”.

The newly promoted side have given up multiple goals in 6 of their 8 matches so far in the Jupiler League, and they’ve provided me with some pretty hefty profits in their losses to KV Mechelen and Antwerp. So, when I saw that Anderlecht was also plus money to score over 1.5, I got all sorts of excited.

Admittedly, Anderlecht have been a bit of a problem this year with their inconsistency. They’ve struggled to score goals and look to be overstretched with the endless wave of European fixtures. But, even with those issues, they have a fairly good record of putting up high goal totals on weaker teams and I wouldn't be surprised to see them come out and put this match away early.

For that reason, we’re taking a mini ladder here of TT Over 1.5 and 2.5, which both pay at very good value for a high risk/high reward approach to this match. At the end of the day, I’m simply comfortable betting against Westerlo until I find a reason not to.

PICK: Anderlecht TT Over 1.5 (+122) for 2U at Caesars Sportsbook

PICK: Anderlecht TT Over 2.5 (+400) for 1U at Caesars Sportsbook

Italian Serie A: Bologna vs. Fiorentina: Sunday, September 11 at 9AM ET

After a risky bet, let’s take a step back and get boring. Not only is Bologna-Fiorentina a match you probably have no interest in watching, but at -148 the odds we’re taking aren’t going to get you all hot and bothered, either.

Unfortunately for those crazy people who only play parlays or longshots, bankroll builders are what keeps the lights on in the Gold Mine and I’ll continue to dig away for small profit when I think it’s comfortable.

Serie A has been a bit of a frustrating conundrum for me this season, but Bologna continue to provide high scoring games for the most part (like our friends Verona), and both teams to score has hit in 5 of their 6 matches. That percentage tells most of the story, and the matchup works well here too.

Bologna are a bit outmatched by Fiorentina, but being at home and not having a midweek game (which Fiorentina does) should provide a boost and get them a goal. Fiorentina’s low scoring matches are slightly problematic (including two 0-0 draws in 5 games), but Bologna won’t play into that style and this battle should play a bit more open.

I think both find the net comfortably.

PICK: Both Teams to Score (-148) for 1.5U at Caesars Sportsbook