Premier League Soccer Picks and Predictions for Week 5

The English Premier League season is underway and this weekend brings another loaded slate of games. Our EPL soccer expert is ready to go with his EPL picks for Week 5.

Before we dive in, you should know that it definitely pays to have more than one funded US Sportsbook account when betting on sports, whether it be the best parlay bets available today, some EPL futures, or anything else!

For example, did you know that new users at PointsBet can score a jersey of their choice from Fanatics with their first $50 bet? That's easily one of the best promos to take advantage of when betting on football this season, and you get to rep your team's gear afterwards.

Welcome back to your regularly scheduled programming, following a very long and unnecessary commercial break provided by international soccer. As many of you know by now, these international breaks are very much not my favorite (that is, to say, they suck about as much as Luton does at soccer).

Sure, the love of country is fun and all but the quality of play is way worse and we have to listen to completely unnecessary bullshit like Louis Van Gaal coming out of the fucking rafters to suggest the World Cup was fixed.

Even worse, we’re in the absolute worst part of the international schedule. Qualifiers for continental championships are about as enjoyable as going to a theater to see a horror movie (another thing I despise), and I’m much happier to get back to watching high-quality club soccer (or whatever it is that Luton plays. Sorry for punching down, but I’m not all that sorry).

With that said, Dimers.com doesn't pay me to rant, so let’s gamble.

MORE: Premier League Best Bets 

Premier League Best Bets - Week 5

West Ham vs. Manchester City: Saturday, September 16, 10:00 AM EST

It’s no secret at this point to anyone else who reads these articles that the Model has an affinity for money lines while I have an affinity for team totals. Sure, the overlap is fairly high in most cases, but anyone who’s gambled enough on soccer can think of some painful situations where you lost a TT on a 1-0 win or lost a ML on a 2-2 draw. Basically, it’s a bit of personal preference and a bit of choosing how to limit risk.

For this game, the Model sees the best bet value on City ML. Not exactly an exciting or unusual bet to make, but at -210 the value is expected at 2.4% which is still a fairly large margin. For most people, -210 is a tough number to lay, but the reality of gambling is that you should find and bet the best value you can, whether it's -200 or +2000. Don’t scoff at the ML here.

That said, my preference is towards a combo of City 1H TT Over 0.5 and TT Over 1.5, which comes out at -130. West Ham have vastly over performed this season, particularly with some significant departures, and I don't expect City to wait around and let the Hammers build confidence. Pep’s side will attack early and often, as usual, and the gap in quality here is still huge despite West Ham sitting in 4th.  This side finished 14th, just 6 points off relegation, a season ago. City is the angle here no matter which way you choose to attack it, I think it's fair to work with either pick here.

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: City 1H TT Over 0.5 + TT Over 1.5 (-130) - 1.3U 
🤖 Dimers' Model: City ML (-210) - 2.4% edge

Aston Villa vs. Crystal Palace: Saturday, September 16, 10:00 AM EST

It was bound to happen eventually, but it's time for me to butt heads with the DimersBOT and see who knows better. This might seem a bit unfair since I’m the one holding the pen, so to speak, but I’ll try my best to present everything in a fair way and let you choose the best path.

This game, for me, is all about Villa’s impressive offense, particularly against teams outside the top of the table. The Villains didn't look all that competitive against Newcastle or Liverpool (though both games were away), but they put 7 up against Burnley and Everton in the EPL along with a couple of drubbings of Hibernians in the ECL. So, at home, against a mediocre Palace side, I expect Villa to find goals and TT Over 1.5 at even money feels like a great price.

The Model doesn't have a “best bet,” but its best of the game is a 2% edge on Palace ML at +300. Not entirely in conflict with my pick (in theory, Palace could win 3-2 and we’d all be happy) but the value it sees likely comes from a lower-scoring match where Palace has value in defending well and pipping a goal. And, while we disagree on the angle, this game does come down to tempo. If Villa push the issue and open things up, they will find chances, while Palace will be better served to slow things down and create a dull affair. I have faith in Villa to win that strategic battle as the home side, particularly because they proved consistent last season, but Palace have looked well-drilled and could find the discipline. I suppose time will tell.

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: Villa TT Over 1.5 (+100) - 1U
🤖 Dimers' Model: Palace ML (+300) - 2% edge

Dimers' 👉 Best US Betting Sites 👈

Gambling can be an exciting way to engage with sports, but it's important to gamble responsibly. Remember, the goal is not just about making money, but also enjoying the experience. Avoid chasing losses and set limits on your wagers. Take breaks and prioritize your well-being. Stay informed about resources available to help you if gambling becomes a problem. Enjoy the Premier League matches responsibly, and best of luck with your bets! If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.