EPL: Premier League Best Betting Picks for Week 4 of the 2023/24 Season

The English Premier League season is underway and this weekend brings another loaded slate of games. Our EPL soccer expert is ready to go with his English Premier League Best Bets for Week 4.

Now, we know you probably already have an account with one of the leading sportsbooks here in the US, but it definitely pays to have more than one funded account when betting soccer.

Find out which books are best, who has the best new customer offer, and how you can secure better odds and lines for all of your soccer bets, below.

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Well, growing pains be damned, I guess? Going into last week’s article I was entirely unsure of how the new concept of merging the Model and my picks would go (if we’re being honest, I may have even tried to fight the idea before being put in my place). Not only did I need to retool a writing style that I had been using for three years, but I had to try to incorporate someone else’s in a way that both read well and worked. Update: it did.

Not only did the overlap of picks and analysis flow much better than I thought it would, but every single pick hit. Not just mine, but also the three from Dimers. A more sophisticated human might draw a comparison between a beautiful melody with interplaying sounds or the dramatic use of colors by Van Gough, but to me the first thing that came to mind was a strawberry banana smoothie. Sure, Both strawberries and bananas work on their own, but together they make the perfect combination of flavors for a majestic and complex fruity drink. The Model is the strawberry to my banana.

Oh, and Tottenham may be the greatest soccer team ever assembled. A truly unbeatable force driven by the greatest mind Australia can offer. All things are coming up Sam (cue collapse…). Let’s gamble.

MORE: English Premier League Soccer Best Bets 

Premier League Best Bets - Week 4

Burnley vs. Tottenham: Saturday, September 2, 10:00 AM EST

If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Ange ball has taken the world by storm and, quite honestly, the team looks to be playing something close to “good” soccer for the first time in a long time. Sure, seven points off Brentford, a hapless United side and Bournemouth isn't a world-beating start, but there is certainly room for positivity, particularly because Spurs have continued to score without Harry Kane.

And, since that seems to be true, and Burnley proved defensively useless last week (to bring together our two winners), let’s go right back to the well and take Spurs TT Over 1.5 at -136, which remains a solid price point for this team against a newly promoted side who’ve conceded six times in two matches.

My friend the model, unfortunately, does'nt have quite as much confidence in this game and has no “best bets.” That said, the “best of game” pick for value is Over 2.5, and I think it at least adds a bit to what I’m working with. The model sees goals in this game, and you have to imagine that the most likely source of those goals would be Spurs here. While the computer would prefer a little safety on total goals, I’m willing to be more direct and wager on my beloved Spurs again.

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: Spurs Team Total Over 1.5 (-1.36) - 1.36U.
🤖 Dimers' Model: Over 2.5 Goals (-160)

Brighton vs. Newcastle United: Saturday, September 2, 9:00 AM EST

This wager is a bit odd, because for me it has so much to do with the team I’m not betting on rather than the team I am betting on. So who is our fountain of value (I was sort of going for a fountain of youth connection there but I’m not sure why, my brain may be broken)? The Seagulls.

Brighton have scored nine goals and conceded five in three matches, and both their xG scored and Xg conceded are above seven over that span. Those are wildly high numbers, but they point to the fact that our coastal friends (the team, not the bird. I hate birds) are both creating and giving up chances. But, while their scoring record is solid, eight of those nine came against Luton and Wolves, and they struggled to finish chances against West Ham. I think Newcastle, despite last week’s disasterclass, should take advantage.

The Model and I see things similarly here, but are taking different angles. For me, the route is Newcastle TT Over 1.5 at even money, while the model likes Newcastle ML at +160 with a +4.9% edge. This is mostly a risk/reward decision in my opinion - I prefer the safety of Newcastle goals with some wiggle room for Brighton to score as well, while the Bot thinks safety is for cowards and goes for the jugular on the full result. Pick your poison I suppose; or just do both, it worked well last week.

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: Newcastle Team Total Over 1.5 (Even) - 1U
🤖 Dimers' Model: Newcastle ML (+160), Villa ML

Dimers' 👉 Best US Betting Sites 👈

Gambling can be an exciting way to engage with sports, but it's important to gamble responsibly. Remember, the goal is not just about making money, but also enjoying the experience. Avoid chasing losses and set limits on your wagers. Take breaks and prioritize your well-being. Stay informed about resources available to help you if gambling becomes a problem. Enjoy the Premier League matches responsibly, and best of luck with your bets! If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.