EPL: Premier League Best Betting Picks for Week 38

The English Premier League season finishes up this weekend with a mega final day where all 20 teams are in action at the exact same time. We're ready for the betting bonanza with our English Premier League Best Bets for Week 38.

MORE: English Premier League Soccer Best Bets 

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Well, here we are. The end of a 10 month soccer season that, at times, has felt more like an Indiana Jones film filled with booby traps and some poor soul getting their heart ripped out of their chest as part of a human sacrifice (I am that human, and Spurs are to blame).

Admittedly, I’ve struggled as a handicapper somewhat, trying to tread water a lot of weeks rather than get rich. And that’s the nature of the beast - anyone who tells you they’re profitable at all times is a liar, and you have to learn to weather tough weeks, months, or even years. In part, the introduction of an international tournament in the middle of the season caused a lot of havoc that was just hard to pin down, but ultimately its my responsibility to figure that out as a person giving out picks.

That’s not to say that I'm down lots of money. I’ve made slight gains in certain leagues (the EPL and Belgium have continued to be profitable) while giving some back in others (Serie A and the Superliga were net losses), but it’s also important to acknowledge and recognize reality. There are a million handicappers on twitter who will sell you the story that they always make money, I choose to be more forthright.

What does that mean for me? Well, these articles have thankfully been a source of money gained, so I can take solace in the fact that my largest audience has benefitted (and possibly tells me something about where I need to allocate resources). But, ultimately, its time to take stock of the season as one that wasnt my best (ive made good money the two years prior, so mediocre is a downgrade), and learn from it to be better next year.

As for all of you, I just want to thank everyone who has followed along here this season and hope I’ve done enough as a gambler and a source of entertainment to keep you coming back. I genuinely enjoy doing this every week, and I hope youll return next season ready for more. I never take for granted when people follow me or give their time to read my articles, and I’ll always strive to keep up the same level of commitment.

With that, let’s take one last spin around the track.

Premier League Best Betting Picks - Week 38

Aston Villa vs. Brighton - Sunday, May 28 at 11:30AM ET

Depending on the season, Matchweek 38 can be anywhere from thrilling to a snooze fest. This year skews more towards the latter with the title and top 4 locked up, but we still have some games of interest for European spots and relegation.

While a battle for 7th place might not seem particularly important, I think a spot in the Conference League is a huge deal for the Villains. Not too long ago Villa were relegated and floundering as a club, so to make it all the way back to this point with a midseason coaching change thrown in is nothing short of spectacular. And, to make things simple, all they have to do is win at home to lock that in.

While Villa dont have the best offensive record, I think TT over 1.5 at -122 is still a good price and here’s why. Not only are they at home, where they average 1.72 GPG (compared to less than 1 on the road), but Brighton also dont play a heck of a lot of defense and they are essentially guaranteed 6th place (I’m writing this pre-City, but they’d need to blow a double digit GD to drop to 7). Villa will be the aggressor against a team who’s defensive effort isnt spectacular on their best day, and I think Villa have enough to push this one over the line. Enjoy those trips to Azerbaijan and Moldova!

PICK: Aston Villa Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-123, 1.25 units) 

Leicester vs. West Ham - Sunday, May 28 at 11:30AM ET

Speaking of useless piles of garbage (see: Spurs above), Leicester have dug themselves into a pretty brutal hole that they can only get out of with a win AND an Everton draw/loss. Oh, and if you watched their performance on Monday at Newcastle, which could aptly be described as “one of the most pathetic things I’ve ever seen on a sporting field,” it would be fair to be skeptical that they can pull it off.

That said, they do have a chance (think Dumb and Dumber quote, if you don't know the reference I just feel bad for you) and I expect they play with slightly more fire than they did against the Magpies. On the other hand, West Ham aren’t exactly the best side to be playing right now. While the Hammers have nothing in the EPL left to care about, they still have the Conference League Final on June 7th and this game will be a tune up/chance for players to earn a spot on the pitch against Fiorentina.

So, with both teams motivated and neither all that good defensively, I’m going to take BTTS at -150. Leicester’s back line cant slow down anyone, and it was only by the grace of God and a couple other deities that Newcastle didn't put up multiple on them. But, while West Ham have some offensive firepower, their defense is still subpar and they concede over 1.5 GPG total and on the road this season. I think each nabs at least 1, and -150 is still worth the cost of admission.

PICK: Both Teams to Score (-150, 1.5 units)