EPL: Premier League Best Betting Picks for Week 35

The English Premier League season is drawing to a close with just a couple of weeks left. Even though the league is winding down, our EPL expert is just heating up with a nice run over the past couple of weeks. He's back again with his Premier League best bets for Week 35.

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How much does therapy cost? Asking for… well I was going to say “a friend” but that genuinely may be true for anyone else who supports Tottenham. I try my best not to make these articles too focused on my own rooting interests or to use them as a place to drone on about my grievances, but this fucking club is trying their absolute best to put me in an asylum. As one prone to hyperbole that statement might seem a bit dramatic, but the last week and half of Spurs has been nothing short of actual torture. 10 first half goals conceded, interim manager fired, and a 3 goal comeback (yay) punctuated by your own player assisting the other teams 95th minute winner (*puts gun back in mouth*).

In fairness, this has been a year of pain for quite a few big clubs. Chelsea fans certainly have their own place in this conversation, and other “significant” clubs like Liverpool, West Ham and Everton have underperformed (being VERY generous to West Ham). But somehow Tottenham seems to be the most fucked, with an inevitable blow up of the squad coming this summer and no chance of succeeding so long as Daniel Levy continues to show his annoyingly shiny head at Spurs matches.

So yeah, I’ve been better. And even our bets, which both should have been winners, only split 1-1 last week after City scored their second goal in the 36th minute and then said “eh, fuck it, thats enough” and produced nothing for the rest of the match.

Pain - it’s not what I feel, it’s who I am now. Time for some bets I suppose…

Premier League Best Betting Picks - Week 35

Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace - Saturday, May 6 at 10:00AM ET

Why am I putting myself through the misery of watching and betting on Spurs after the speech I just gave? It’s a fair question, and one with a simple answer - I will bet on anything if I think the price is right. If you gave me good odds on which squirrel in my backyard was going to win in a fight to the death, I’d bet it without a second thought.

And, quite honestly, -134 for over 2.5 for a Spurs match is just silly right now. This team has conceded both to the fact that they are a fucking lost cause and to the idea that they have no hope defending against anyone. The solution? Just try to score as much as humanly possible. As I mentioned above, it isn't exactly the best strategy given their first half goals conceded, but over 2.5 has hit in 7 of 8 Spurs matches and honestly its a bit hard to see how it doesn't get over the line here (see what I did there? Like a goal going over the line…). Spurs could both score and concede that many in this match, and Palace don't have any need to hunker down because their season is all but over at this point.

Spurs will dictate the pace and tactics, and that should mean chances at both ends of the pitch. I hope for my sake Spurs get the better of it, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if they didn't.

PICK: Over 2.5 Goals Scored (-134, 1.5 units) 

Fulham vs. Leicester - Monday, May 8 at 10:00AM ET

First off, I apologize for the Monday bet - the EPL decided for some unknown reason to only have 2 fucking Sunday games and I hated the odds on both. Rather than force a stupid bet, I figured I’d do everyone a favor and just hold off for some Monday value.

And, thankfully, the logic here is going to follow almost exactly the same path as our last bet so I can be extremely lazy in my write up (not really, but it is similar analysis). As with Spurs, Leicester play a chaotic style of soccer that lends itself to goals on both ends of the pitch. Look no further than their 2-2 draw with Everton last time out for proof, but all of their games seem to be fairly loose and open (there’s a sexual joke to be made here, but I don't think it’s in my best interest to make it so I will respectfully decline). Fulham, who are also part of the equation, are similarly uninterested in the outcome at this point in the season and likely play more open because they really don't have much to lose.

The odds here are slightly better than the last play at -124, and I think that makes sense; Leicester play open but they aren’t exactly clinical finishers so getting over that 2.5 threshold is a bit more challenging. But between the expected tactics and overall style I see chances at both ends and a game that should skew more towards goals so long as we get at least one before half.  

PICK: Over 2.5 Goals Scored (-124, 1.5 units)