EPL: Premier League Best Betting Picks for Week 34

It's been an eventful week in English soccer with Manchester City taking the title ascendency after the collapse of Arsenal midweek, but just because City have one hand on the trophy doesn't mean that the season is over. Our English Premier League expert is back for this weekend's action with our EPL best bets for Week 34.

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Separating your rooting interests from your gambling interests is a crucial aspect of finding success on the boards. As fans we always want to see our team win or our rival lose, and it's easy to get sucked into the trap of betting based on the results we hope to see (I’m sure a psychologist could explain the heuristics better, but I am neither learned nor articulate). It’s something I am particularly conscious of as someone who puts out picks for other people to follow, mostly because I don't want to lead an army of lemmings off of the metaphorical cliff with me.

That said, I have never felt more lifeless after winning a bet than I did on Spurs last weekend. I made it all of 10 minutes into the game, at which point they were already down 3-0, and then said “fuck this I’d rather drink bleach.” I proceeded to drive to the golf course, and eventually saw Spurs finally hit our BTTS bet to make it 5-1, but I couldn't muster any happiness because my soul no longer cared. But hey, a win is a win and I guess we can take a little positivity out of the result, which was especially needed because Brentford killed me on Saturday with their 1 goal off 3xG accumulated (it’s a big net guys, just hit the spot where the goalie isn't).

Can’t sweep every week, sadly, but at 5-1 in our last six I don't feel so bad about one miss. How about we go make it seven of eight though?

Premier League Best Betting Picks - Week 34

Brentford vs. Nottingham Forest - Saturday, April 29 at 10:00AM ET

Fear causes weird things to happen this time of year, and Nottingham Forest may be the perfect example of that concept. Despite some truly horrendous performances and looking completely outclassed at times this season, the trees have picked up the pace a bit over the last two matches, beating Brighton and giving Liverpool a real scare. Are they dangerous enough to cause problems for sides like City or Arsenal? Probably not (although who’s to say with Arenal right now). But they can expose some of the mediocre teams in the league, and Brentford falls right into that sweet spot.

The Bees let us down a bit last weekend, but they came back and made some money for the Twitter followers by hitting a +300 pick against Chelsea in the midweek. At home against Nottingham, they should have no problem finding a goal. So, while I see this as a solid opportunity for both teams to score, the books are pricing things at a very generous -112. We’re attacking.

Brentford are the better side and, against Nottingham’s nearly two conceded per match, a single goal should be the floor. As for Nottingham, they’ve entered their final sprint for survival (so they say, you don't need to outrun the bear - just the slowest person), and I think their odds of scoring now are better than they would have been a few weeks ago. Forest will push for points here knowing they cant afford to be cautious against smaller clubs, and I see each netting at least 1.

PICK: Both Teams to Score (-112, 1.25 units) 

Fulham vs. Manchester City - Sunday, April 30 at 9:00AM ET

I’m writing this pick on Thursday, directly following City’s massacre of Arsenal that sets the Citizens up to win the title. So, to be fair, that result may be skewing my perception a bit, but I think this side is just playing too fucking well to be slowed down by anyone without top talent. Hell, Arsenal arguably have that and City cut through them with ease.

With no Champions League fixtures until the 9th of May, City will still be setting up with most of their starting 11 here which takes away any major concerns about squad rotation. And, while they aren't the best away from home, they simply have too much class for the Cottagers to keep up with.

For that reason, I’m not going to get too clever or complicated. City Team Total Over 2.5 is +116, and I think three is actually a fairly safe expectation. I don't always like getting so aggressive on higher number totals, especially in the EPL, but City have shown too much quality of late to doubt them right now. Don't think too much, and look for this one to be a bit of a slaughter.

 

PICK: Manchester City Team Total Over 2.5 Goals (+116, 1 unit)