EPL: Premier League Best Betting Picks for Week 32

The English Premier League is back for another week and our best bets have been running hot with two consecutive sweeps. Our soccer expert has run his eye through the form for this weekend to determine his Premier League best bets for Week 32 as he goes for three straight perfect weeks. Read on for his full analysis below.

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Let’s talk regression. As a gambler you learn to focus on the long term rather than the short term - It helps save you from getting too low or too high when variance skews heavily in one direction, which is good both for your sanity and to keep from doing stupid things as a bettor.

Why do I mention this now? Well, quite simply, I am red fucking hot in the EPL at the moment, which included two first half wins last week that cashed so fast we didn't even have time to sweat. But, while it’s very nice to be hitting everything that moves, it’s also a time to rein myself in and be careful, lest we risk an icarian disaster (Shakespeare has nothing on me). Now, that doesn't mean I’m “due” for losses. Sure, over time I'm not going to keep hitting at an unsustainable clip but that doesn't mean this week’s bets are somehow worse just because the last few were good. The key is to remain realistic, while not overcompensating.

So what’s the purpose of this whole spiel? Well, simply, it’s to manage expectations and to keep myself in check so I don't get my ego bloated. We will continue to fire shots on a weekly basis, but I need to continue to do my diligence and find value. Now, time to get back in the box and take a few hacks.

Premier League Best Betting Picks - Week 32

Brentford vs. Aston VIlla - Saturday, April 22 at 10:00AM ET

No team in the EPL is hotter than Villa right now. They’ve picked up 22 points in their last 8 matches, which is damn near impossible for even the best teams, and it’s a testament to how well Unai Emery has done since taking over. Oh, and Ollie Watkins has scored 11 goals in 12 matches, which is absolutely insane consistency considering he’s scored in 10 of those 12.

So we’re riding the Villa train to the bank of profit? Call me crazy, but I’m doing the opposite. As I already stated this run is an over performance for any club, and it CERTAINLY qualifies for a Villa side that are mid table at best. And, to pair this analysis with the intro, they are due for a regression at some point soon. Why here? Well, most of you who’ve been around this season know that Brentford at home has been a consistent source of profit for us and their home scoring record of 29 goals in 15 matches makes them valuable at anything close to even money against teams not named City or Arsenal.

Even better, the books have them at +142, largely due to Villa’s run of form, so we’re getting favorable odds based on the skew towards a team that isn’t as good as the books are telling you they are. If Villa manage to keep up this shocking run, well, good for them. And even if Brentford do manage 2, that doesn't necessarily mean Villa lose (Brentford are more than capable of conceding goals). But at +142, you have to take a crack at the Bees to find 2, and I’m not going to abandon a strategy that’s succeeded for us regularly.

PICK: Brentford Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+142, 1 unit) 

Newcastle vs. Tottenham - Sunday, April 23 at 9:00AM ET

The thought of Tottenham’s existence right now is enough to make my blood boil like one of those underwater steam pipes shooting hot death from the earth’s core. In fact, I would really enjoy never watching this team play ever again, so just keep that in mind when you decide to ride with me or not (I’m not sure which way it skews, you can make that determination).But, from a value standpoint, both teams to score is too good to pass on at -124 in this match, so I’ll swallow my pride and force my soul into 90 more minutes of agony.

The reasoning is actually pretty simple. Both Teams to score has hit in the last five Spurs matches, and their back line is such a mess that it’s hard to imagine them holding off just about anyone, not the least of which a solid Newcastle team at home. On the other side, Spurs average almost two goals per game and the talent they have up front (most of which will likely be leaving the club soon) should be able to break down a Magpies unit that has only kept 1 clean sheet in its last 11 matches.

As always, there are hitches. The greatest of those is Tottenham are in utter chaos as a club which makes them liable to put in an erratic performance (something that, quite honestly, isn’t all that abnormal for them at their best). Newcastle are also still a solid defensive unit with the fewest goals conceded in England, so if they do get themselves sorted they are capable of shutting out Spurs. But, overall, the recent performances and tactics point towards goals here and it wouldn't shock me to see more than two or three. We’ll stick to simplicity though, and take a stab at BTTS.

PICK: Both Teams to Score (+124, 1.25 units)