EPL: Premier League Best Betting Picks for Week 31

Mmmmmm, the sweet taste of victory. Apparently the sports gods and the gambling gods (I’m assuming they’re different, but who the fuck knows) took pity on me last weekend after watching my Spurs emotionally destroy me for months on end, and threw me a few metaphorical bones (or maybe not, more on that in a bit). One of those “bones” was clearly beneficial to me (and to all of you), as I swept my bets last weekend in easy fashion: Brentford-Newcastle hit BTTS with relative ease and then Arsenal scored twice within 30 minutes.

 

On top of that, Tottenham managed to win - largely due to the fact that Brighton got absolutely screwed by VAR (I’m no expert, but stomping on people’s feet is usually a foul) - and Arsenal blew their two-goal lead to Liverpool and dropped points. That keeps Spurs in contention for the top 4 and gives City more hope of catching the Gunners for the title. So what’s the issue? Well, it’s the hope that kills you.

I learned a long time ago that Tottenham’s best “talent” was finding ways to reel me back in before inevitably crushing my soul again. And, if I'm being honest, this feels like another typical trap, as they’re giving me just enough reason to believe that they have a chance. But as they say, “fool me once, shame on you - fool me 7562 times, I’m just a helpless Spurs supporter who deserves all of the pain I get.” So I’m desperately holding on to my pessimism and expecting the worst because that’s the only thing keeping me sane. God help me.

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Premier League Best Bets - Matchweek 31

Everton-Fulham: Saturday, April 15, 10 AM EST

After a fairly improbable first half that saw Fulham sit near top European spots in February, the grind of an EPL season finally hit them square in the mouth. The Cottagers have lost four straight league matches with an FA Cup loss thrown into the mix as well, and it’s hard to be particularly optimistic about them.

Now, some might say a matchup with Everton is just what the doctor ordered. While Liverpool would typically be a strong candidate for the most underperforming club in Merseyside since they sit in 8th, Everton battling it out to survive relegation probably takes the cake there and their -20 GD is staggeringly bad.

That said, one of the crucial things to keep in mind as we come down the home stretch is that weird things happen when the fear of relegation kicks in. Clubs that have been useless for months will find unexpected form, and Everton is a prime candidate to see an uptick. So the play is Everton ML? Ehh, not so fast.

Everton might improve, but this is still a side who have scored 23 goals in 30 matches while conceding 43, so I’m not quite ready to back them fully. Instead, we go with BTTS, which seems far more likely and is solidly priced at -106. I do think, at home, Everton manage enough quality to find at least a goal, but they’re still a defensive disaster and Fulham are aggressive enough to exploit mistakes. 1-1 or 2-1 either way feels like the sweet spot here.

PICK: Both Teams To Score (-106) - 1.25U

West Ham-Arsenal: Sunday, April 16, 9 AM EST

Both Teams to Score again? Don't mind if I do… this one is also not too difficult to explain either, and the easier it is to get to your conclusion in gambling the better the bet generally is.

Let’s start with the simple part: Arsenal will score. The Gunners have put in 72 goals in 30 matches and have the best record on the road in the EPL. Unless something completely bizarre happens or they completely lay an egg, 1 goal should be the BARE MINIMUM for them.

As for West Ham, this team has scored a least once in each of their last 7 matches and is finding ways to capitalize on fairly strong offensive talent despite the fact that David Moyes is a useless twat who has failed at every stop since leaving Everton. While the Gunners are going to be tough to crack, they’ve shown some defensive frailty of late (only 1 clean sheet in 7 matches) and this is a derby that should raise the temperature a bit. -122 is slightly worse as far as cost, but with the bet almost entirely hinging on whether the Hammers score its still worth the risk.

PICK: Both Teams To Score (-122) - 1.25U

 

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