EPL: Premier League Best Betting Picks for Week 30

The English Premier League is heading towards the final months of the season with the title race well and truly in the balance, leading to a lot of exciting matches still to come. Our soccer expert has run his eye through the form for this weekend to determine his Premier League best bets for Week 30. Read on for his full analysis below.

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Remember that thing I said last week about the pain of having to watch Tottenham and my enjoyment of international break? Yeah, well, case in point on Monday. I’ll try my best not to turn this week’s article into some deformed version of a high school girl writing in her diary about the guy who keeps cheating on her, but I imagine that’s pretty equivalent to how I feel right now (no, I did not experience that in real life because charming women isn’t exactly my forte and I dont generally forgive people who have scorned me).

The good news is misery loves company, and you can see it all over the place right now from top clubs not named “Arsenal” or “Manchester City.” United were about as useful as a screen door on a submarine in their match with Newcastle over the weekend, while Chelsea and Liverpool both lost over the weekend before playing to a midweek 0-0 draw that kind of made you feel like you were watching two elderly dogs who needed to be put out of their misery.

So, more or less, everyone sucks and somehow Newcastle and Brighton are going to walk away with the extra two Champions League spots because they’re the only two who seem to really give a fuck and/or are capable of putting in a decent 90 minutes. Watching Real Madrid travel to play at Amex Stadium in Brighton would be pretty funny to see, to be fair.

Premier League Best Betting Picks - Week 30

Brentford vs. Newcastle - Saturday, April 8 at 10:00AM ET

Newcastle have picked up the pace a bit over the last couple of matches, with dominating performances over both United and West Ham that really boosted their chances of making the top four. Great for you if you’re a long time Magpies fan or a Saudi Prince (though the latter probably has a few other perks like unimaginable riches and such).

That said, anyone who reads these articles regularly knows that Brentford at home is an absolute fucking workhorse, and I am not going to give up on them just because Newcastle have had a bump in form. What’s the solution? BTTS.

Newcastle have looked fantastic offensively and they should be able to find chances on a Brentford side that concede at a fairly high clip, even at home. And, while Newcastle have the best defensive record in England, Brentford are lethal on their own turf with an average of 2 goals scored per game, which makes it hard to expect they get blanked. -128 isn't a massively valuable number, but for two solid offensive teams it rests pretty heavily on Newcastle’s defense putting in a perfect 90 and I don't see that happening

PICK: Both Teams to Score (-128, 1.5 units) 

Liverpool vs. Arsenal - Sunday, April 9 at 11:30AM ET

What in the fucking world is going on here? Arsenal have shown absolutely no signs of slowing down and Liverpool are an ugly mess who probably deserved to get their teeth kicked in by Chelsea (Over 2.5 xG conceded), but somehow they’re barely an underdog? I don't buy it.

The Gunners have scored 70 goals in 29 games and 28 in 14 road games, which makes 2 away goals a perfectly reasonable expectation against a mid table club. So, at +120 for TT Over 1.5, I’m glad to take a crack at it.

Are there concerns? Of course - in particular Liverpool’s impressive home defensive record of just 9 conceded in 13 matches - but this is the same team who gave up 5 at Anfield to Madrid, so that number doesn't hold a ton of weight against a side playing as well as Arsenal right now.

Part of me hopes that I’m wrong and that the other North London club will find a way to bottle this, but nothing about the way they’ve played this season suggests that they’ll be outmatched or offensively frustrated here. If I’m wrong, so be it (I wont complain), but Arsenal put up 3 in the reverse fixture and 2 feels like a reasonable expectation here.

PICK: Arsenal Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+164, 1 unit)