EPL: Premier League Best Betting Picks for Week 3 of the 2023/24 Season

The English Premier League season returns to action this weekend with a fantastic slate full of star power from top to bottom. Every team dreams of a great season, and in Week 3, anything is possible. We're ready for the betting bonanza with our English Premier League Best Bets for Week 3.

Now, we know you probably already have an account with one of the leading sportsbooks here in the US, but it definitely pays to have more than one funded account when betting soccer.

Find out which books are best, who has the best new customer offer, and how you can secure better odds and lines for all of your soccer bets, below.

The 👉 Best US Betting Sites 👈

And just like that, we’ve started to find our groove. Week 1 only yielded a small profit, largely because West Ham are a farce of an organization filled with incompetent boobs (one of my editors is a Hammers supporter, I hope he enjoys this), but we cleaned things up last week and swept the board with complete ease for over 2U of profit.

Speaking of improvement, discussions with my overlords at Dimers have led to an idea that is going to move things in a slightly different, though hopefully even more successful, direction. As you all have seen for years, the Dimers model is a thing of beauty, and it produces high-value picks across the whole gambling slate including the EPL. While my picks are entirely distinct from that model, we realized that putting both my fucked up brain and their high-powered computer together might create something truly amazing (or disastrous, TBD). So, rather than split the baby and keep the two separate, I’m going to take their analysis and use it to help explain and build on my own selections.

Will this process be seamless and perfect? I have no clue. There may be some growing pains here that make for a bit of clunky writing, or it may fit like a glove and make my already impeccable work even impeccable-er (that’s for sure a real word). But, for those interested in both my picks and the model, youll get to see them both (to some extent, at least), in the same place. Adapt or die!

Now let's gamble.

MORE: English Premier League Soccer Best Bets 

Premier League Best Bets - Week 3

Bournemouth vs. Tottenham: Saturday, August 27, 7:30 AM EST

Spirits are at an all-time fucking high right now ladies and gentlemen. As I sat in a Vegas sportsbook last Saturday, likely still inebriated from the night before, I screamed like a banshee as my beloved Spurs took down United 2-0. Not only is winning pretty cool (as it tends to be), but this team actually looks like it has some sense of tactical purpose under Ange and I am all the way in (please don't quote me on this when things go downhill).

And, with those tactics in mind, I’ll be taking TT Over 1.5 for Spurs at -140. Sure, it's a decent amount of juice to give up, but the Spurs are both aggressive and finishing chances (2 goals per game) while Bournemouth continue to be one of the worst defensive teams in the league. Ironically, Dimers is actually willing to go further than I am and take Spurs ML at even money, which they project as having a 52.3% chance or 2.3% edge. Basically, my beloved Tottenham are the side to be on.

So why the discrepancy between me and Dimers. Well, as a Spurs fan, I live in a state of constant fear. And, while 2 goals SHOULD be enough to get them a win (meaning the ML would be a more effective bet), I’ve known this team long enough to be cautious. Some defensive improvement has been present this year, but they conceded multiple goals in Week 1 and I’d rather just avoid that side of the game completely. Look for Spurs to score, and consider incorporating or adding Dimers’ ML bet if you’re feeling a little frisky (computer-based sports analysis always gets me hot and bothered…).

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: Spurs TT Over 1.5 (-140) - 1.4U.
🤖 Dimers' Model: Spurs ML (Even)

Burnley vs. Aston Villa: Sunday, August 28, 9:00 AM EST

This time, let’s build from the model forward instead of my analysis backwards, because I’m going to use this as an opportunity to prove that I'm smarter than this robot (I don’t think “robot” is technically correct, but whatever). The model actually has two best bets for this match - Over 2.5 (-115) with a 2.9% edge and Villa ML (+110) at a 2.4% edge - both of which are entirely rational in my opinion. But why overcomplicate things? I’m a simple man, and I like simple pleasures.

My analysis on this game led me to Villa TT Over 1.5 at +102, and seeing the Dimers projections back that up gave me a big old smile. If the game has an edge both for over 2.5 and Villa ML, Villa TT Over 1.5 makes even more sense because it necessarily follows directly from those two selections. Essentially, I am both more efficient and more brilliant.

So why Villa (you know, for some actual reasoning)? Well, after a tough opening fixture at Newcastle, Villa came out and blew the fucking doors off Everton with some impressive and free-flowing offense. Burnley had a week off last week, but their opening fixture against City did nothing to impress me about their defensive abilities and they’re likely to get more open in this match than they did there. With space to exploit and talent to finish, I think Villa carve up Turf Moor for at least 2.

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: Villa TT Over 1.5 (+102) - 1U
🤖 Dimers' Model: Over 2.5 (-115), Villa ML (+110)

Dimers' 👉 Best US Betting Sites 👈

Gambling can be an exciting way to engage with sports, but it's important to gamble responsibly. Remember, the goal is not just about making money, but also enjoying the experience. Avoid chasing losses and set limits on your wagers. Take breaks and prioritize your well-being. Stay informed about resources available to help you if gambling becomes a problem. Enjoy the Premier League matches responsibly, and best of luck with your bets! If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.