EPL: Premier League Best Betting Picks for Week 29

The Premier League returns from the FIFA international window this weekend with another action packed slate to digest as we inch ever closer to the end of the season with the title still very much on the line. As he always does, our EPL expert Prospector Sam is back with his two best plays for the weekend which features Brighton vs. Brentford and Newcastle United vs. Manchester United. Read on for our full analysis of this weekend's games below!

MORE: English Premier League Soccer Best Bets 

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After a week off from EPL soccer you might be expecting me to come on here and complain about how much I hate international breaks and the lack of high quality soccer.

Or to come point out how national teams play something akin to American college soccer with absolutely no flow or attacking style at all (for those who haven't watched much of it, you can skip the experience. Trust me). But guess what? I’m not going to do that, because I was happy as a fucking clam.

You see, no EPL means that I don't have to subject myself to the torture that is watching two hours of Tottenham. You know, like I did two weeks ago when they blew a 2-goal lead to last placed Southampton and then our own fucking manager (now our ex-manager), who doesn't know how to do anything, came out and blamed the “culture” for his own failures.

So yeah, a weekend of sunshine and golf and even a few alcoholic beverages was a VERY WELCOME reprieve from the normal torture I get on a regular basis as a fan.

But, also, the gambling was way worse. Let’s get back to the good stuff.

Premier League Best Betting Picks - Week 29

Brighton vs. Brentford - Saturday, April 1 at 10:00AM ET

The lethal Bs (not to be confused with the “lethal bees,” which would just refer to Brentford and be terribly confusing). Brighton and Brentford have both made us a solid amount of money this year as sides who have generally outkicked their coverage in terms of goal scoring. Neither is going to put up a 5 spot, but they hit 2 with a pretty good frequency and its made for great TT Over 1.5 value.

So which one do we lean on here? Well, let’s just go with “yes.” Both Teams to Score sits at a very reasonable -132, and neither side is particularly adept at keeping clean sheets.

The bigger concern here is Brentford on the road, as the slightly worse unit with a shaky away record, but while the Bees dont pick up as many points in their travels they still create a lot of goals on both ends - 15 scored and 20 conceded in 13 matches.

Brighton, for what it’s worth, average close to 2 per at home and are going to pick apart that porous Brentford back line.

Generally speaking, BTTS isnt my favorite bet because it requires two teams to show up and play well (as opposed to backing a single side on a team total), but both are solid enough to find at least a goal of and I think 1-1 is a more likely result than 3-0 either direction (which would push me towards over 2.5).

PICK: Both Teams to Score (-132, 1.5 units) 

Newcastle United vs. Manchester United - Sunday, April 2 at 11:30AM ET

After a long run of impressively boring performances and results, Newcastle’s reign of terror (I’m not explicitly referring to the Saudi regime backing them but let’s just say it doesn't hurt my cause) seems to have slowed.

The Magpies did a great job of winning games 1-0 early in the year, but it’s a difficult act to repeat and they haven't kept a clean sheet in over two months.

Enter: Manchester United. I don’t have any love for the Red Devils nor do I want to watch them score goals in any circumstance, but they have one of the most in form players in the world right now with Marcus Rashford and the team seems to be rallying around Ten Haag.

Cutting the dead weight of Ronaldo and sticking McGuire on the bench may have helped as well, but no need to dance on their graves (or do, it’s pretty fun).

To keep this simple, I think Man U have a great chance to find goals here. Not only do they get the benefit of a lot of calls (go look up penalties by team over the last decade if you want proof), but they generally just have too much talent for Newcastle to handle and Over 1.5 is far too good to pass up at +164.

United just put 2 by them in the EFL Cup Final a few weeks ago, I expect the game skews in their favor and we see more of the same here.

PICK: Manchester United Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+164, 1 unit)