EPL: Premier League Best Betting Picks for Week 28

Premier League soccer action returns this week and we are rolling towards the crucial weeks of the season with our Premier League Best Bets for Matchweek 28. After a 2-0 sweep of last week's picks from our EPL expert, this week's article features Brentford vs. Leicester and Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace. Read on for our full analysis of this week's plays, and don't forget to check out our Premier League Bet Hub for probabilities and best bets for all of the weekend's action.

MORE: English Premier League Soccer Best Bets 

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I’ve long held the belief that everyone has mental blindspots. They come in a variety of forms, and sometimes they’re not easy to recognize, but ultimately we’re all stuck with a few issues or concepts that will just never make sense to our brains. It could be the old friend we cling onto that everyone else hates, an aversion to certain basic skills necessary to survive in modern society (say, spelling, for no particular reason), or even scientific facts that you cant quite wrap your head around like how the fuck we can figure out the speed of light (I’m calling bullshit, Ole Roemer).

That principle holds true in gambling too. Every year I notice a few teams that I am consistently on the wrong side of - this year’s least favorites are Lazio, Midtjylland, and Man City - and it’s infuriating to consistently end up losing money on one club over and over. Is there a solution? Yes and no. Recognizing that you have a consistent miss can help you avoid mistakes from bias or bad judgment, but it can also simply be an anomaly; Over a season you’re just going to have some teams you win or lose on more by statistical coincidence. But, if you do see me betting on any of those teams, be warned. There’s a good chance you should fade the bejesus out of me…

Now, after last week’s mini-sweep (calling two wins a “sweep” feels a bit generous), let’s jump back on the horse!

Premier League Best Betting Picks - Week 28

Brentford vs. Leicester - Saturday, March 18 at 10:00AM ET

With three games postponed due to the FA Cup this weekend, pickings are a bit slimmer than usual. But, when all else fails, return to what works (see above), and few bets have worked as consistently as Brentford Team Total at home.

The Bees seem destined for another season of “mediocrity” in terms of their finish, with mediocrity being a somewhat harsh characterization given that a top 10 finish is a great result for them. No offense to any of you Brentford supporters, but EPL Titles are probably not in your future (and, as a Spurs fan, I know a lot about not winning titles). But, even as a middle of the pack team, Brentford play extremely well at home and average over 2 goals per game in those matches while amassing the 6th most points on home turf. So, based on that, you all can probably figure out why Brentford TT Over 1.5 at -108 feels like a great spot.

There are obviously reasons for concern, as there are with any bet. Leicester are firmly in the relegation race and Brendan Rodgers can’t afford a loss here, so the Foxes may set up a bit more defensively. Brentford also have a midweek fixture to contend with which doesn't help fresh legs. But Leicester don't seem capable of defending against anyone and their 29 goals conceded on the road in 13 matches paint a pretty clear picture. The Bees find two.

PICK: Brentford Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-108, 1.5 units) 

Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace - Sunday, March 19 at 10:00AM ET

Speaking of tired legs, both Palace and Arsenal have midweek fixtures to contend with that will make Sunday’s ONLY EPL fixture (whoever planned this should be shot) a bit less straightforward. Palace had to contend with a midweek trip to Brighton, while the Gunners are facing an important second leg of their Europa matchup against Sporting Lisbon at the Emirates.

And, while it may seem a bit biased, I think the number for Palace to score a single goal, which is priced at -102, is too nice to pass up. To be clear, I have no expectation that Palace are going to win this game, and the likelihood is that Arsenal put in at least a couple. But, while Palace average less than a goal per game on the season, Arsenal actually tend to be a bit looser in back at home and Palace have generally played them fairly tough.

Why not BTTS? Well, that answer lies in simplicity. The boost you get from adding an Arsenal goal is almost nothing as far as price, while you can protect yourself a bit from an early Arsenal red or an odd result (which isn't out of the question in the Premier League these days). Let’s keep things simple here and just take Palace to find a goal.

PICK: Crystal Palace Team Total Over 0.5 Goals (-102, 1.25 units)