EPL: Premier League Best Betting Picks for Week 26

The world class acton of the Premier League returns this weekend and our EPL expert is back with his Premier League Best Bets for Matchweek 26. This week's article features Manchester City vs. Newcastle, Brighton vs. West Ham and Brentford vs. Fulham. Read on for our full analysis of this week's plays, and don't forget to check out our Premier League Bet Hub for probabilities and best bets for all of the weekend's action.

MORE: English Premier League Soccer Best Bets 

Before jumping on these plays, make sure you check out bet365's new customer offer! You can get $200 in site credit when you bet just $1. You're not going to find a better offer than that, as you barely have to put anything on the line to boost up your bankroll! 

If you only tailed my EPL picks last weekend, you probably hate me. If you tailed all of my soccer picks, you love me. Such is the world of sports gambling and the variance that comes along with it.

As much as I would love to get paid lots of money to sit around and write full blown articles on every game I’m betting (genuinely, I would love it), I do not have the time nor does Dimers have the space to be putting up analysis for the multiple Belgian soccer plays I have on any given slate. 

Instead, I focus here on some EPL picks and put the rest of my ideas on Twitter/Discord, and unfortunately the split was not a good one for people who aren't on there.

We made a solid five units on the weekend, with one of the major speed bumps being that I was off by a country mile on both of my article selections. My apologies, but now is the time to shamelessly plug following my social media. 

And speaking of shame, how about Chelsea? You will never see me cry a tear for that club and I am relishing their misery, but it’s almost inexplicable how bad this team is right now.

Maybe Graham Potter was a bad choice (and I’m not even sure that’s true), but even so there is no way this team should be so inept on offense. In the grand scheme of things, though, this is a fantastic turn of events.

Not only do they suck right now, but, barring a miracle UCL run, this team is sitting on MASSIVE costs and no European soccer next year. Wouldnt it be a shame if things started to spiral? God willing…

Premier League Best Betting Picks - Week 26

Manchester City vs. Newcastle - Saturday, March 4 at 7:30AM ET

Newcastle’s “bend-dont-break” brand of play, a style that works long term about as well as patching your roof leaks with duct tape, has shockingly started to fail them.

While this club is likely destined for big things over the next decade based on the disgusting amount of money backing them, the project is still in its infancy and will take time to build. So, while they’ve done well this season, it’s more of an overperformance than it is an immediate and meteoric rise. 

And, having conceded multiple goals in their last two matches and at least one in each of their last 5, a trip to the Etihad isn't coming at the most opportune time.

On the other hand, though, City are also a bit of a mess and clearly care infinitely more about the Champions League than they do about this EPL title, so expecting a dominating performance out of them doesn't seem very likely either. With that in mind, along with the 3-3 result last time they faced each other, I’m betting on goals. 

Over 2.5 isn't an insane bargain at -152, but its a solid price given that number has hit in each of their last four and 9 of 11 meetings between the clubs. City will push numbers forward and are capable of hitting that total themselves, while Newcastle have the ability to hit City on the break which is exactly how they found success in their last match.

City Team Total is probably the more obvious choice, but game total provides a bit more safety and I think its warranted here.

PICK: Over 2.5 Goals (-152, 2 units) 

Brighton vs. West Ham - Saturday, March 4 at 10:00AM ET

This pick and the next one follow a pretty similar script, so I could probably just mash them together into one write up. That’s no fun for me or for you though, so i’ll squeeze as much

juice out of this lemon as possible by breaking them up. Essentially, the bet boils down to this: a stronger home side who got the weekend off because of the EFL Final facing a defensively frail opponent. Simple enough? I think so too. 

Both of these clubs do have a midweek fixture for the FA cup (though Brightons is a day earlier) so legs wont be completely fresh, but the Seagulls are a solid offensive unit (despite selling their entire fucking team and giving up their manager) and West Ham have benefitted lately from some soft matchups as far as their defensive output.

Brighton are an aneurysm waiting to happen some days because they have a tendency to produce lots of chances and inexplicably fail to score them, but they have fresh legs, a good matchup, and home field. -110 for TT Over 1.5 is too nice to pass up.

PICK: Brighton Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-110, 1.25 units) 

Brentford vs. Fulham - Monday, March 6 at 3:00PM ET

Not only did Brentford get last weekend off, they also don't have an FA Cup match in the midweek while Fulham do, so they have a massive leg up as far as fitness and freshness. The relative quality is slightly less favorable to them since Fulham continue to overperform, but their defense is not traditionally a strong point. 

More importantly, for our purposes, is that the Bees are a fucking WORK HORSE at home. This team has scored 24 of its 37 goals on their own pitch, averaging out to exactly 2 per game, and I think they should see the lion’s share of chances in this one. 

Not much to add other than that since I did most of the talking for this bet on the last one. Now go support your local and foreign bees (seriously, those guys are dying at an alarming rate, and honey is very tasty).

PICK: Brentford Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+104, 1.25 units)