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Elly De La Cruz & Corbin Carroll: How to Bet these MLB Rookie Sensations
Two rookie sensations have taken over Major League Baseball: Elly De La Cruz of the Cincinnati Reds and Corbin Carroll of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Both teams are in first place in their divisions at the end of June. Is it time to take advantage as bettors? Let's take a closer look.
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Rookie of the Year Odds (via DraftKings Sportsbook)
TO WIN NATIONAL LEAGUE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR |
Corbin Carroll (-500) |
Elly De La Cruz (+300) |
Corbin Carroll (-500)
The Diamondbacks' Corbin Carroll has been one of the biggest stars in all of baseball this season. Carroll's balanced all-around game has led to a productive debut season that not many saw coming. He hits for power, for average, gets on base, and is dynamic on the basepaths and in the field.
Before a certain Cincinnati superstar's debut in June, Carroll was a stone cold lock to win National League Rookie of the Year. Now, his odds are all the way down to -500. That's a little too much juice for our liking, even though Carroll is the heavy favorite given his total body of work since the start of the season. We don't advise betting this at the current number, but keep an eye on it going forward because....
Elly De La Cruz (+300)
Elly De La Cruz has taken Major League Baseball by storm. In his first 16 games for Cincinnati, the Reds went a stunning 13-3, winning 12 consecutive games in a row. We haven't seen a star like Elly in years - one that captivates both the diehard fans and the casuals. He transcends the game itself, and his presence has completely rejuvenated a dormant Reds franchise and given an entire city hope.
De La Cruz impacts the game in so many ways - as evidenced by his cycle just 15 games into his young career. His speed is unparalleled, and his bat is electric. He has plenty of work to do to catch up to Carroll, but the fact that in just over two weeks, De La Cruz is up to +300 gives us reason to believe this race is far from over. The best value on the board is definitely Elly De La Cruz to win NL Rookie of the Year, and we advise a small unit wager on this before the odds change. If he continues his current form, there could be opportunity to hedge Corbin Carroll closer to +100 odds later in the season.
MORE: MLB Futures
Odds to Win their Divisions (via DraftKings Sportsbook)
TO WIN THEIR DIVISIONS |
Arizona Diamondbacks to win NL West (+425) |
Cincinnati Reds to win NL Central (+330) |
Diamondbacks to win NL West (+425)
At the time of writing, the Diamondbacks are clinging to their spot alone at the top of the NL West division by two games. Corbin Carroll's excellence has given Arizona a great boost to start the season, but it won't be easy to sustain the team success over the next three months. There are two primary opponents to hold off - the Dodgers and the Giants. Although all three are in close contention, our MLB Futures model only recommends betting on one of these teams to emerge as champions.
DimersBOT gives the Dodgers a 64.4% probability to win the NL West, good for more than double the chances of the Giants and Diamondbacks combined. You can bet the Dodgers at -145 odds, while the Diamondbacks at +425 aren't even the second most likely outcome according to our model. That would belong to the San Francisco Giants, who are a 16.7% likely winner at +450 odds. For now, we advise betting the Dodgers or just staying away from this division.
Reds to win NL Central (+330)
Across the National League, the Reds hold a two-game lead over the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Central. The Reds are truly red hot, thanks to the emergence of Elly De La Cruz and the return of veteran star Joey Votto. It's easier to see the Reds winning their division than the Diamondbacks, for one because we are buying that Cincinnati is a much improved team with their rookie sensation, but also because there is no elite talent team like the Dodgers to compete with.
The Brewers, who are currently in 2nd place are our model's favorite to win the Central as a 36.2% probability. Beyond Milwaukee, both the Cubs and Reds are making a case to win. DimersBOT gives De La Cruz and the Reds a 22.2% probability to win the division, and at +330 odds, that's worth a sprinkle in our eyes as the team looks to keep their winning ways alive.
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