Bills vs. Dolphins | NFL Expert's Thursday Night Football Predictions [Updated]

As an NFL expert, I'm always excited for a big divisional matchup, and this Thursday's showdown between the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills promises to be one of the highlights of NFL Week 2. The game kicks off at Hard Rock Stadium at 8:15PM ET, and based on my extensive analysis and simulation work, the Dolphins have a solid edge in this matchup.

Nick Slade, Dimers' Chief Content Officer, breaks down tonight's matchup.

Dolphins - Bills Predictions

Using Dimers' advanced simulation model, which I’ve personally worked on, we ran 10,000 simulations of the Bills-Dolphins game. The data points to a 59% win probability for the Dolphins, leaving the Bills with a 41% chance of walking away with the victory.

“We take into account a ton of variables, including current rosters, injuries, and performance trends,” I noted while discussing our simulations with a Dimers colleague. “These models give us a highly accurate picture of what’s likely to happen in Thursday Night Football, and right now, it’s looking like a narrow win for Miami.”

Our predicted final score? Dolphins 26, Bills 23, a tightly contested battle, but one that I believe Miami is better positioned to win. And when I talk to other NFL experts in the field, many agree - Miami’s high-powered offense gives them the edge.

Thursday Night Football: Essential Details

For those looking to tune in or even attend the game, here are the key details:

• Who: Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
• When: Thursday, September 12, 2024
• Time: 8:15PM ET/5:15PM PT
• Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
• Tickets: Available through Ticketmaster

NFL Predictions: Thursday Night Football

When diving deeper into the odds for Thursday Night Football, the Dolphins are favored at -2.5 with odds of -110, while the Bills are +2.5 at -105. Moneyline odds for Miami sit at -135, and Buffalo is +120. The over/under is set at 48.5, and as of now, our model sees an equal 50-50 chance of it going either way.

“From a betting perspective, this game is tricky," I commented. "The spread is spot on, and while we favor the Dolphins slightly, there’s not a huge margin. However, if you’re looking at a moneyline bet, that’s where the value is.”

With that said, the question on everyone's lips is, will Josh Allen improve to 7-0 on Thursday games, because, right now, he's currently undefeated!

Predicting Player Performances

One of the most exciting aspects of this matchup is the individual performances we expect to see, and I’m keeping a close eye on Tyreek Hill, who is projected to score the first touchdown of the game with a 12.3% chance of getting into the end zone early. He’s also a 51.2% favorite to score at any point during the game, which aligns with his explosiveness and current form.

As for quarterbacks, we’ve projected Tua Tagovailoa to throw for more yards than Josh Allen, though both signal-callers are capable of lighting up the scoreboard. When it comes to rushing, look for Miami’s De'Von Achane and Jeff Wilson to be the top ground-gainers, while James Cook and Josh Allen will lead the Bills’ rushing attack.

Conclusion: My data says the Dolphins will beat the Bills

Heading into Thursday Night Football, all signs point to a close game between these AFC East rivals. I’ve analyzed the data, run the simulations, and my Dolphins Bills predictions lead me to believe that Miami will come out on top—but just barely.

For anyone looking to make an informed decision before kickoff, I strongly recommend checking out the full suite of tools and insights on Dimers Pro. Whether you're betting on the moneyline or diving into player props, there’s a lot of action to be had in what should be a thrilling NFL Week 2 matchup.