Do Sportsbooks Owe Refunds When Players Exit Early Due to Injuries?

Betting on sports exists at an intersection of the known and the unpredictable. Whether you're betting on the best parlay bets today, Super Bowl odds or anything in between, we use existing knowledge and research combined with our gut instinct to make decisions on what we think and hope will happen. As gamblers, we like to think that the more work that goes into our research and decision-making, the more likely we are to see positive (aka winning) results. The reality is that’s all we can do.

Yes, there are smart bets and dumb bets, but the smartest, most data-driven decisions are beholden to the unpredictable nature of sports. Meanwhile, the dumbest, least-researched bets of all can still end up winners. The unknown factor of what comes on the next play, or the next pitch or on the next turn is what gives sports betting the thrill that we crave. Weather, outside factors and injuries are as much a part of the game as the stadiums in which the games are played, which begs the question: do sportsbooks owe bettors a refund when a bet loses due to these unknown factors?

The simple answer is…there isn’t one. As sports bettors, we’re always playing against the house, so we will gladly take any edge we can get, even if that’s a $10 bonus bet refund because of a player’s early exit. But can this set an uneasy precedent by giving sports bettors unrealistic expectations?

Over the years and across sports, there have been instances where a player sustains a major injury and exits the game, leaving countless bettors on the hook for a player prop Over that can no longer hit. Sometimes it’s a straight bet, other times it’s the lone missed leg in a parlay. Regardless, the result is the same. Unless of course, the all-powerful sportsbooks step in and make an executive decision to refund the bets lost due to injury. And why would they do so? Their goal is to make money, your money, on losing bets. A loss for bettors is a win for the book, so what goes into that decision-making process?

These are generally rare occurrences, and sometimes takes a social media campaign to raise enough clout and put the pressure on the books to #VoidLuka. However, there are instances in which the books take it upon themselves, and in recent weeks, we’ve seen a number of these situations.

Aaron Rodgers – Week 1

Arguably the most notable of these instances, Aaron Rodgers went down in the Jets’ season opener vs. the Bills just a few plays into the first drive. He attempted a lone pass before tearing his Achilles on a sack. To anyone watching the game, the seriousness of the injury was immediately apparent, even if you didn’t know quite what it was. The dejected look on Rodgers’ face said all we needed to know. And just like that, in a flash, the Jets’ new era was over before it started.

Gang Green went on to miraculously win the game and before they had even done so, DraftKings Sportsbook announced they would be refunding all bets placed on Aaron Rodgers in the game, including same-game parlays, straight wagers and regular parlays via bonus bets. That even included a boosted promo for Rodgers and Josh Allen to throw a combined three TD passes.

Furthermore, they announced they would be refunding all futures wagers (parlays and singles) that included Rodgers as an open leg. This was incredibly unexpected. Rodgers and the Jets were some of the most popular public bets before the season, and instead of taking the profit on every losing Rodgers MVP wager, bettors were refunded in bonus bets.

RIP. Honestly, I just wish I could remove this from my "Active" bets. 🤦‍♂️

Nick Chubb – Week 2

One that’s a little fresher in the mind as we’re just four days removed, is when Nick Chubb went down with a significant knee injury in Week 2. After being the undisputed first team to enter the Red Zone, the Browns called a rushing play with Nick Chubb pounding up the middle before a low tackle by Minkah Fitzpatrick sent Chubb went in one direction and his lower leg in the other. It was a brutal injury and one we hope Chubb can bounce back from as he is a majorly loved player and general NFL fan favorite running back.

This is where things start to get a little interesting in the world of refunds. Chubb wasn’t injured three plays into his first season with the Browns, or even late in the Browns’ first drive; he was injured at the start of the second quarter. He had already compiled 64 yards on 10 carries, and while that pales in comparison to a Nick Chubb ceiling game (which is likely where he was headed), it’s a full stat line. As a sports bettor myself, it shocked me when DraftKings Sportsbook announced they would be refunding single bets on Nick Chubb or parlays where Chubb was the only losing selection. I happily accepted my $10 refund for my Nick Chubb rushing/receiving/TD SGP, but I absolutely expected it to be settled as a loss.

Jamaal Williams – Week 2

Now for the most surprising. On the same night Nick Chubb was injured, Jamaal Williams also exited early in the Saints-Panthers game with a hamstring injury. Williams played the entire first quarter and put up a very Jamaal Williams stat line with 29 yards on 9 carries. I was happy enough as I took Jamaal Williams’ alternate under of 54.5 rushing yards for plus money, but wouldn’t you know it, anyone with a single losing Jamaal Williams leg got their refund. Incredulous.

If the Under cashes due to injury and the bet stands, then why doesn’t it equally apply to the Over? A player failing to hit his over because they were injured after toting the ball nearly double-digit times is part of gambling. Don’t mistake this line of questioning as shilling for the books; as stated previously, I’ll gladly accept a refund sent my way, but the issue is how far is too far in leniency and when does that begin to break down the expectations between the customers and the sportsbook?

🚨 MNF REFUND 🚨

We will be refunding all losing or undetermined bets where Nick Chubb/Jamaal Williams are the only losing selections.

Credited inside 24 hours and refunded in bonus bets.

— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) September 19, 2023

How do Sportsbooks Decide When to Refund Losing Bets?

Looking at these three instances, we see some nuance, which is always important in issues like this. While the sportsbooks would have been well within their right to mark any Aaron Rodgers Over bets as a loss. Especially with the Allen/Rodgers TD boost, Josh Allen's four turnovers played a significant role in losing that bet, it wasn't just dependent on Rodgers. Most books didn't void, and it’s caused some division amongst customers who are split between multiple books. Did this opportunity coincide with an ill-timed and tasteless themed promotion from earlier that night, thus presenting a good PR opportunity? Sure did. Is that why we got the refunds? We’ll never truly know.

In the instances of Chubb and Williams, it’s a bit more dicey given how much time they actually played. You typically see these types of refunds with stars and big-name players; a WR3 getting injured on the first drive isn’t getting any refunds. That’s what makes the Jamaal Williams return so peculiar. He’s not a star and he plays at one of the most physically demanding positions in the game; of course, there’s risk of injury.

The only true instance we’ve seen in which there should have been no question about refunds is Damar Hamlin’s on-field scare in Week 17 last season. Hamlin suffered a terrifying on-field cardiac arrest before his life was saved by the Bills training staff and local medical professionals. In my lifetime, I’ve never seen an instance like that on the field, a horrifying scenario where the last thing anyone should be thinking about is money.

However, the game was ultimately canceled and DraftKings refunded all undetermined wagers on the game. Additionally, they paid out tickets on both the Ravens and Bengals as winners of the AFC East, given that the division title was still in the balance with a game lost.

The big question is: where does the line get drawn? I've got an MVP bet on Wander Franco from back in early May. Should I get that refunded because he has off-the-field allegations that will prevent him from playing any more this season? Granted, Shohei Ohtani is winning anyway, but what if Franco were the favorite at that time? Every little factor gets boiled into gambling, be it on-field, off-field, supernatural or unpredictable.

With this mixed bag of injuries and refunds, all in the past week, it’s going to be very interesting to see how these situations play out the rest of the season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see refunds come in the future for incredibly early exits like Aaron Rodgers, but when players go down in the middle of a game, big names or otherwise, I think we may see the pitchforks come out from the betting crowd when the refunds don’t keep rolling in.

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