Dimers Reveals the Best Way to Bet With PointsBet Promo

Out of a whole slew of sportsbook sign-up offers available to bettors in the United States right now, none are more unique than PointsBet's Second Chance Bets Up to $1000 promotion.

CLAIM: PointsBet's Second Chance Bets Offer

If you're not caught up to speed: the promo allows new users to sign up and make one bet per day for 10 days, up to $100 each. If that bet wins, you take your cash and move on; but if the bet loses? You get a bonus bet back in your account for the same value to use the next day.

It's a promotion that intrigues because of the plethora of ways that you can approach it in order to succeed.

But just what is the best way to leverage the promo to your benefit? The Promoguy dives in.

The Best Way to Use PointsBet's Second Chance Bet Promo

Over the next 10 days Dimers.com will be looking at how to play PointsBet's Second Chance Bets promotion from a sharp bettors perspective.

We’ll run two strategies, so you can decide which is most appropriate for you. The first will be a high variance approach that maximizes your profit, while the second will be a lower variance approach that may be more applicable for those with smaller bankrolls. 

MORE: Best Bets Today

To maximize profit, we’d be looking for high odds propositions on both the original bet and the free bet, ideally both with an edge based on the Dimers` models. Let’s compare three approaches:

Strategy 1: High Initial Odds, High Free Bet Odds

Original Bet Odds	+600
Win Probability	14.29%
Lose Probability	85.71%
Bonus Bet Odds	+600
Bonus Bet Win Probability	14.29%
Expected Free Bet Return	$600
Total Return on $100	$173.47

In this scenario, placing a +600 bet on both our original bet and our free bet returns $173.47 for our $100 investment in the long-term; but there is only a 26.5% chance of getting a return; while the rest of the time you would lose both bets. Doing this each day, for 10 days, your expected profit is $641 (based on 1 million simulations), but there are 1.146% of sims where you lose $1000, and 18.9% of sims where you lose money. In 51% of simulations your profit is more than $500.

Strategy 2: Spread Bet Initially, High Free Bet Odds

Original Bet Odds	-110
Win Probability	52.38%
Lose Probability	47.62%
Bonus Bet Odds	+600
Bonus Bet Win Probability	14.29%
Expected Free Bet Return	$600
Total Return on $100	$140.82

This time, we’re placing our initial bet on a spread or total (at -110), so we have a 50% (or just over by using selections with an edge) probability of winning the bet. Combining this with a free bet at odds of +600 means that there is now only a 41% chance of losing on any particular day, but our expected return is lower. 

MORE: Best Parlay Bets Today

Running 1 million simulations over 10 days in this scenario, your average profit is reduced to $380, however you only lose all $1000 in 0.0065% of simulations. However you lose money in 20.6% of overall simulations, and the number of simulations where you make more than $500 is down to 42%. Essentially your “risk of ruin” or losing all of your $1000 is lower, but at the cost of a much reduced upside.

Spread Bet Initially, Spread Bet Bonus

I won’t show the numbers, but no professional bettor would suggest using your free bets on -110 shots. Don’t get me wrong, you could still profit doing this, but it’s a terrible use of a once-off promotion. In 1 million simulations where you place both your original bet at -110, and place your bonus bets on -110 selections, your average outcome is reduced to $226, there was not a single sim where you lost all $1000, and you only lose money in 17.1% of simulations, but equally you’ll only make more than $500 in 16% of simulations.

Day 1 Strategy

Strategy 1: 3-leg parlay: Jalen Suggs Over 13.5 Points + Rebounds, New Orleans +4.5 vs. Grizzlies, Anfernee Simons Over 8.5 Assists + Rebounds (+624 odds)

Strategy 2: Russell Westbrook Over 23.5 Points + Assists (-115)

Check back tomorrow for Day 2's bets!

Of course, if you’d rather follow along at $10 or $25 stakes you can do that too, it will lower your potential return, but also lower your risk!

CLAIM: PointsBet's Second Chance Bets Offer