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Dimers identifies big betting edge on Phoenix Suns' Chris Paul in Game 5 on Tuesday
Updated: | First published:
Written by Matt Hickman
On its latest of more than 10,000 simulations, DimersBOT predicted the Phoenix Suns to be 111-104 winners over the New Orleans Pelicans in Game 5 of their best-of-7 series tonight in the Valley of the Sun.
Previous to this morning’s run, the most trusted, charming and genuine hunk of artificial intelligence in the world of sports prognosticating had the Suns only winning by 6, thereby not covering the consensus spread of -6.5.
MORE: Projected Pelicans vs. Suns Game 5 predictions
So, what is a discerning punter with the sagacity to follow the DimersBOT to do?
The first factor to consider in any pivotal Game 5 is the gravity of the situation for the home team — the higher seed — which wins this game more than 80% of the time.
That gets you to Phoenix on the moneyline, which at -270 isn’t much value.
As for clearing the 6.5-point hurdle, other than the first half of Game 1, the Suns have shown no ability to blow out the Pelicans, who finished 10 games under .500 in the regular season, but since falling behind by 26 in the second quarter of Game 1, have outscored the reigning Western Conference champs by 49 points since.
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Despite the desperation and intensity, it’s hard to envision the Suns winning in blowout fashion. It’s easier to see them riding another superlative performance from Chris Paul down the stretch to go up 3-2 and grab a better than 85% chance at winning the series.
Paul scored 23 in the fourth quarter of the Suns’ Game 1 win and 19 to hold off New Orleans in Game 3.
"Man, that is the CP3 show,” Suns center DeAndre Ayton said after Game 1. “He did what he did best, reading the defense and just attacking."
Barring the clock suddenly striking midnight on the Cinderella Pels, it’s probably safe to assume Phoenix will hold to a tenuous lead throughout and ride Paul down the stretch one more time.
Which side of the spread the outcome falls on likely depends on how many bullets CP3 has left by night’s end. The 5-foot-11, 36-year-old point guard has shown a preternatural ability to dribble into his high-arching, mid-range shot and hit it at a deadly clip no matter who’s guarding him.
RELATED: Full Betting Preview for Pelicans vs. Suns
If you think the game will come down to Paul’s late heroics, you probably want to take the Pelicans getting 6.5 and Paul on the over 20.5 points.
But if you want to follow DimersBOT to a T — take the Suns to cover 6.5, the Under on Paul’s points at 20.5 (DimersBOT has him at 18) and take the Over on assists, which our BOT predicts for 16, which would be the most he’s had all series, and a clear edge over the 12.5 his line is at across the board. Check out DimersBOT's predicted box scores for Game 5 here.
If CP3 winds up dropping that many dimes, there’s a very strong chance Phoenix wins going away, he saves his fourth quarter heroics for another day and quite happily winds up on the under-side of 20.5 points.
Looking for some playoff bankroll? Bet either team at the moneyline and lock in $200 as soon as a three-pointer is hit in the game!
Click ➡️ here ⬅️ to lock in your $200 from BetMGM Sportsbook.
Written by
Matt Hickman Matt Hickman joined Dimers.com in April 2022 after 25 years in journalism roles across Arizona, North Dakota, Montana, and Alaska. A former President of the Arizona Associated Press Sports Editors, he has won over 50 awards for sportswriting and column writing.
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