Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers: Key Betting Trends and Odds for the NFC Championship Game

It's the juggernaut San Francisco 49ers vs. the upstart Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship as they fight for representation in Super Bowl LVIII. We've delivered you the trends you need to know in the AFC Championship between the Chiefs and Ravens, and now we turn to the NFC Championship. A closer look at each team's betting trends throughout the 2023-24 NFL season reveals some notable insights to consider when using Dimers' best bets for the NFC Championship, powered by our cutting-edge predictive analytics model.

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Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers: Points Spread

49ers are a -7 point favorite against the Lions

Barring a midseason stretch where they dropped three straight, the 49ers were a powerhouse this season, though that didn't translate to the spread. Sporting just a 9-8 record ATS, they were favored in every single game, yet failed to cover in seven games in which they were favored by 6.5 or more.

MORE: Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Preview

The Lions are a different story as they've been a spread-covering machine dating back to last season. Detroit went 12-5 ATS in the regular season, alone at the top with the best mark in the entire NFL. They're 1-1 in the playoff, covering as 6.5-point favorites over the Buccaneers but slipping by the Rams by a single point. Though rarely underdogs this year, they did cover in 2 out of 3 of those instances.

In this game, the DimersBOT model strongly favors the Lions with the spread, giving them a 57% probability of covering the +7 points. It's not the most elite value, but their -115 odds on BetMGM imply a 53.5% probability, identifying a 3.5% edge in odds, which should be -135 according to our model.

Head-to-Head Odds: Lions vs. 49ers

49ers are the favorite at -300 odds on BetMGM

Major favorites on the moneyline, the 49ers are pretty much unplayable in this market. They finished the regular season at 12-5, though that includes a Week 18 game in which multiple starters sat as the Niners were locked into the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

Detroit finished with an identical record of 12-5 and won just once as an underdog in three games. They have a -10.7 margin of victory in those three games, as well.

At their -300 odds on BetMGM, San Francisco gets a 75% implied win probability, while the DimersBOT model says they have a 70% chance. That makes their fair price closer to -225, but it's not really an appealing play at that number, either. The Lions are +240 at BetMGM, which translates to a 29.4% probability. We give them a 30% chance, which is roughly worth +230. It's a very slim value, but you can see the slight difference.

RELATED: Our Best NFL Player Props for Lions vs. 49ers

Lions vs. 49ers Points Total: Over/Under

The Over/Under for the AFC Championship is set at 50.5 points at BetMGM

In terms of points total trends, the 49ers were an interesting mix of dominant defense and high-octane offense, resulting in a 10-7 record to the Over in the regular season. Their lone playoff match with Green Bay went under.

Meanwhile, the Lions sit atop another betting category, sharing an 11-6 record to the Over with Browns and Colts. They're 1-1 in the postseason, going over in the game with Tampa Bay.

We see a slim lean to the Over at 53% probability from DimersBOT, and at -105, you're close to the fair price but it's not offering anything in value. Worse, you're seeing the books favor the under at -115, though we calculate just a 47% probability there, meaning it should be in the plus-money range of odds, roughly +115.

Remember, these trends are simply a holistic look at both team's results throughout the season. Many other factors contribute to these outcomes, including injuries, matchups and more. However, these trends can offer helpful looks at the tendencies of either team.

MORE: Dimers' Best U.S. Betting Sites

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